Editor Brian Harrod Provides Comprehensive up-to-date news coverage, with aggregated news from sources all over the world from the Roundup Newswires Network
Category Archives: International Monetary Fund (IMF)
Larger economies have been flexible and creative coping with Covid’s impact – the same mindset needs to be applied to helping poorer countries
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts Africa will suffer its worst recession since the 1970s. For the first time since the 1990s, extreme poverty will increase. The annual death toll from HIV, tuberculosis and malaria is set to double. We also fear a near doubling in the number of people facing starvation. Many girls out of school will never go back. Life expectancy will fall.
All this will fuel grievances, and in their wake conflict, instability and refugee flows, all giving succour to extremist groups and terrorists. The consequences will reach far and last long. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development and G20 nations will feel the blowback just as some start to see light at the end of the Covid tunnel.
Jubilee Debt Campaign reveals sharp rise in number of countries in distress since 2018
Developing nation debt has more than doubled in the past decade and left more than 50 countries facing a repayment crisis, according to a campaign group.
Data from the Jubilee Debt Campaign shows that even without taking full account of the impact of the coronavirus pandemic, there has been a sharp jump in the number of poor countries in debt distress since 2018.
Change must come from within Lebanon, but Emmanuel Macron and others can help by ending their patronage of a disastrous regime
In the aftermath of the devastating Beirut port explosion last week, it is not just the role of the Lebanese political class that has come under scrutiny, but that of their international peers too. Sunday’s international donor conference led by the French president, Emmanuel Macron, raised €253m (£228m) in relief funds, but it also signalled an important change in rhetoric. For the first time, donors affirmed that relief funds would directly go to the Lebanese people, and that longer-term economic assistance would be dependent on Lebanon implementing structural reforms.
This affirmation came hot on the heels of growing international attention on rampant corruption among Lebanon’s ruling political class, which is widely blamed for the port explosion. It sends the message to Lebanon’s rulers that, while their country desperately needs foreign assistance to stand on its feet, no one can help Lebanon if it does not also help itself. But the communique issued following the conference glossed over the international community’s own role in sustaining Lebanon’s corrupt political class over a period of decades. At the aid conference, Macron said that Lebanon’s future is at stake. What donors need to recognise is that this future is a shared responsibility for them and Lebanon’s leaders alike.
Because of the Covid-19 pandemic, levels of hunger and poverty are going to rise. Given this, the abolition of DfID is a serious mistake
This week’s warning from Unicef is stark. Without immediate action, children under five will die in their tens of thousands in the coming year as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic. The UN agency estimates that an additional 6.7 million children will become dangerously under-nourished unless at least $2.4bn can be mobilised. The risk is that 10,000 more children a month will die.
Hunger is not confined to poor countries: the call for 1.5 million more children in England to get free school meals is evidence of that. Ministers ought to act at home. But acute hunger is a much more acute problem in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia. What’s more, Unicef is far from alone in pointing out the vulnerability of the world’s poorest people to coronavirus. The World Bank is pencilling in the first increase in poverty in two decades. The International Monetary Fund says deep recessions in advanced countries are having a marked impact of remittances – worth $360bn in 2018 – into low income and fragile states.
The UN secretary general will today deliver one of his most stinging speeches to date, attacking the “myths, delusions and falsehoods” around international progress on equality.
In an unusually strongly worded speech, António Guterres urged major reform to the UN security council, the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, to address systemic inequalities exposed by the coronavirus pandemic.
Report identifies gap between market optimism and depressed state of economies
The global stock market rally represents a gamble by investors that central banks will ignore the risks of a buildup in debt and continue to provide support at the current record levels, the International Monetary Fund has warned.
In an update to its half-yearly global financial stability report, the IMF said central banks had been pivotal in the recovery of share prices from their Covid-19 trough but there was now a gap between the optimism of financial markets and the depressed state of economies.
The head of the International Monetary Fund has signalled a possible downward revision of global economic forecasts, and warned the United States and China against rekindling a trade war that could weaken a recovery from the coronavirus pandemic.
Kristalina Georgieva, the IMF’s managing director, told an online event hosted by the European University Institute that recent economic data for many countries was coming in below the fund’s already pessimistic forecast for a 3% contraction in 2020.
En las próximas semanas, se esclarecerá si el mundo vuelve a los combustibles fósiles tras la pandemia o si da un paso adelante hacia una economía limpia, mientras el FMI (Fondo Monetario Internacional) y Argentina deciden si van a continuar ofreciendo su apoyo a los inmensos yacimientos de petróleo y gas de Vaca Muerta, en Patagonia.
El objetivo del proyecto es explotar el segundo depósito más grande de esquisto del planeta (después de la Cuenca Pérmica, en Texas), pero su futuro es incierto debido al confinamiento forzoso provocado por COVID-19, que ha causado el descenso más drástico en el precio del crudo de los últimos treinta años.
European markets are falling deeper into the red this morning, as coronavirus recession fears swirl.
The FTSE 100 is now down 90 points, or 1.5%, at around 5,700 points - with similar losses in other markets.
The OBR says the UK economy could fall by 35% in the second quarter. Brutal for sure, but it also expects a very sharp bounce back. This puts it in the V-shaped recovery camp, which is an ever-decreasing circle. Charles Evans, the Chicago Fed president, said yesterday the US is in for a very sharp but hopefully short downturn.
Money managers are more pessimistic. According to Bank of America’s latest Global Fund Manager Survey, just 15% see a V-shaped recovery. Over half (52%) see a U-shaped recovery, where the long line along the bottom stretches on for some time, perhaps years. A fifth (22%) see a W-shaped recovery – possibly sparked by a sharp bounce back and second or third wave of infections – and 7% see the dreaded L – a long depression like the 1930s and no real recovery. The biggest tail risk is a second wave of infections, which makes the speed at which you reopen economies key. My bet, for what it’s worth, is WWW.
Newsflash: Global oil demand is expected to fall by a record amount this year -- according to industry experts.
The International Energy Agency has predicted that demand will slump by 29 million barrels per day in April -- to levels last seen in 1995 -- as the Covid-19 lockdown hits demand extremely hard.
“By lowering the peak of the supply overhang and flattening the curve of the build-up in stocks, they help a complex system absorb the worst of this crisis.
“There is no feasible agreement that could cut supply by enough to offset such near-term demand losses. However, the past week’s achievements are a solid start.”
Australia urged to use its influence to push for the permanent cancellation of all debt due from vulnerable countries in 2020
Low-income countries need their debts for 2020 forgiven, alongside billions in emergency grants to survive the Covid-19 crisis, civil society groups around the world have said, arguing the viral pandemic will hit hardest the poorest people in the poorest countries.
More than 100 civil society organisations internationally have called on creditor nations to permanently cancel all debt repayments as the “fastest way to keep money in countries and free up resources to tackle the urgent health, social and economic crises resulting from the Covid-19 global pandemic”.
With the IMF and World Bank spring conference approaching, research underlines need to bail out world’s poorest countries
For more than two years the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund have warned that sub-Saharan Africa stands on the verge of a debt crisis. Ever since commodity prices began to fall in 2015, the public finances of nations stretching from Nigeria to Kenya and Chad to South Africa have deteriorated.
If China is the manufacturing centre of the world, Africa is its chief supplier of essential materials, from oil and copper to the rare-earth minerals used in mobile phones. As China’s manufacturing waned in the middle of the last decade, so did the crucial foreign earnings that keep African nations afloat.
Letter calls for $8bn emergency fund to bolster health systems in world’s poorer countries
A group of 165 global leaders has called for immediate and coordinated international action to tackle the twin health and economic emergencies caused by the Covid-19 pandemic.
Past and present politicians – including three former UK prime ministers – joined academics and civil society representatives to warn the G20 that the virus will return unless urgent action is taken to bolster health systems in poor countries of Africa and Latin America.
A group of 24 senior diplomats and defence officials, including four former Nato secretary generals, have urged Donald Trump to save “potentially hundreds of thousands of lives” across the Middle East by easing medical and humanitarian sanctions on Iran.
IMF and World Bank sign off $5bn in assistance with help of bridge financing from Norway, Italy, the UK and the EU
Somalia’s debt will be slashed to a fraction of its current levels after almost $5bn (£4.1bn) of assistance was approved by the International Monetary Fund and World Bank.
A joint statement from the global financial institutions praised Somalia’s efforts at economic reform, allowing it to qualify for a debt relief programme and reintegrate into the global economy after 30 years.
Government ministers across Africa have called for the suspension of debt interest payments as the Covid-19 crisis deepens.
The numbers of cases being reported in Africa are still behind Europe and the US but rises are being confirmed in South Africa, Kenya, Egypt, Algeria and Burkina Faso, among others, and there is fear of what economic consequences the pandemic might wreak.
World economy’s prospects look bleak owing to Covid-19 outbreak and Donald Trump’s trade policy
At the start of this year, things seemed to be looking up for the global economy. True, growth had slowed a bit in 2019: from 2.9% to 2.3% in the US and from 3.6% to 2.9% globally. Still, there had been no recession and as recently as January, the International Monetary Fund projected a global growth rebound in 2020. The new coronavirus, Covid-19, has changed all of that.
Early predictions about Covid-19’s economic impact were reassuring. Similar epidemics – such as the 2003 outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome (Sars), another China-born coronavirus – did little damage globally. At the country level, GDP growth took a hit but quickly bounced back, as consumers released pent-up demand and firms rushed to fill back orders and restock inventories.
Speaking at the Peterson Institute of International Economics in Washington, Kristalina Georgieva said new IMF research, which compares the current economy to the “roaring 1920s” that culminated in the great market crash of 1929, revealed that a similar trend was already under way.
Congo-Brazzaville and Chad among hardest hit as campaigners warn spiralling repayments could trigger disaster
Poorer countries are cutting public spending in response to a “growing debt crisis”, campaigners have warned.
Debt in some countries has trebled according to new figures that calculate debt reimbursements, and their impact on government expenditure, in 60 countries.
Southern Africa’s third largest economy is a textbook example of the increasing debt facing a fast-growing continent
Zambia’s capital, Lusaka, was having a power cut, so the only light in the restaurant was from Fumba Chama’s mobile phone. The rapper, better known as PilAto, had just finished uploading a new track to Twitter. The bitter-sweet lyrics (in Bemba) of Yama Chinese describe the concerns of many Zambians: “They put on smart suits and fly to China to sell our country. The roads belong to China. The hotels are for the Chinese. The chicken farms are Chinese. Even the brickworks are Chinese.”
The world is sleepwalking towards a fresh economic and financial crisis that will have devastating consequences for the democratic market system, according to the former Bank of England governor Mervyn King.
Lord King, who was in charge at Threadneedle Street during the near-death of the global banking system and deep economic slump a decade ago, said the resistance to new thinking meant a repeat of the chaos of the 2008-09 period was looming.