For political parties judging this year’s local election results it’s all about the baseline

The polls will be first electoral test for Labour government, while Reform is standing candidates in almost every contest

It’s all about the bass – well at least the baseline. With all political parties likely to win in some places it can be hard to judge what a good night looks like for any party when it comes to local elections.

One way to judge this is to compare with how parties did the last time these contests took place: the baseline. For the seats up for election next week that was 2021 – though many of the places that voted then will not be doing so in 2025. Those elections included places where elections were held over from 2020 because of Covid restrictions; these seats returned to their normal schedule last year.

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GDP growth an ‘encouraging sign but we are not complacent’, says Reeves – UK politics live

Chancellor says government ‘will remain pragmatic and cool-headed’ while seeking US trade deal

The care minister has defended the government’s cautious response to developments in global trade after the sweeping imposition of tariffs by the US administration in Washington.

Stephen Kinnock said “If we were to just jump in one direction or the other every time there’s a new development, we would be jumping around all over the place. I don’t think that that’s going to be in the interest of our economy or of our national security or of our business community.”

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Cooper says five grooming gang inquiries to go ahead after Tories claim they’ve been dropped in ‘cover up’ – as it happened

This blog is now closed, you can read more on this story here

During her BBC Breakfast interview Kemi Badenoch claimed that the government has dropped the plans for five local inquiries into grooming gang, or child rape scandals, that were announced in January. As she was trying to fend of the questions about Adolescence, she said:

One of the things that I’m more bothered by is the fact that just yesterday, we had Labour telling us that they’re not going to be investigating the rape gang scandal, something which had happened all across the country. That’s real. That’s happening right now. We’re not talking about that.

I am absolutely astonished that Labour has dropped what it said it would do in January. And, as I said to Keir Starmer at prime minister’s questions, if he did not have a full national inquiry, people will start to think that there is a cover-up.

They are clearly uncomfortable with having inquiries that are looking into this issue.

As a rule I believe in mess ups rather than conspiracy.

But if true that Labour have shelved even the most limited public enquiries into grooming gangs, it does suggest that powerful Labour politicians have something to hide.

We are developing a new best practice framework to support local authorities that want to undertake victim-centred local inquiries or related work, drawing on the lessons from local independent inquiries such as those in Telford, Rotherham and Greater Manchester. We will publish the details next month.

Alongside that, we will set out the process through which local authorities can access the £5m national fund to support locally-led work on grooming gangs. Following feedback from local authorities, the fund will adopt a flexible approach to support both full independent local inquiries and more bespoke work, including local victims’ panels or locally led audits of the handling of historical cases.

There’s a huge information about this. This is completely wrong. We’re actually increasing, not reducing, the action being taken on this.

Child sexual exploitation, grooming gangs – these are some of the most vile crimes, things like rape or exploitation, coercion. We’re increasing the action against that.

I think that those are all important issues, and those were issues that I’ve been talking about for a long time.

But in the same way that I don’t need to watch Casualty to know what’s going on in the NHS, I don’t need to watch a specific Netflix drama to understand what’s going on. It’s a fictional series. It is not a documentary.

I’m saying very clearly that my job is not to watch lots of TV. My job is to get out there and make sure that I’m talking about the issues that are happening in the country right now.

Badenoch in the right. Stop basing public policy on telly

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Rachel Reeves rejects calls for a ‘Buy British’ campaign amid tariffs crisis – UK politics live

Chancellor also says fiscal rules will not be changed, saying ‘we saw what happened when the previous government lost control of the public finances’

Half of Britons (51%) think the government should impose retaliatory tariffs on imports from the US, according to polling by More in Common, a campaign group. Last week, just before the Trump tariffs were announced, YouGov published figures suggesting 71% of Britons would favour retaliatory tariffs against the US.

Yesterday YouGov also released polling suggesting that only around a third of voters think Keir Starmer and the government played a significant role in ensuring the US tariffs imposed on the UK are relatively low.

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Over 60 Reform UK candidates in local elections are Tory defectors, study finds

Labour accuses Nigel Farage’s party of ‘mass rebrand’ after research into nominations of former Conservatives

More than 60 of Reform UK’s council candidates standing in this year’s elections are defectors from the Conservative party, according to research from the Labour party.

Reform has also selected an ex-Conservative for its candidate in the upcoming Runcorn and Helsby byelection, while the party’s mayoral candidate for Greater Lincolnshire is the former Tory MP Andrea Jenkyns, who lost her parliamentary seat in West Yorkshire last July.

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Starmer dismisses claims he’s been ‘played’ by Trump, and says future trade deal could lessen impact of tariffs – UK politics live

Starmer said that a future trade deal with the US might lead to the UK getting some exemptions from the tariffs

Richard Hughes, chair of the Office for Budget Responsibility, is giving evidence to the Treasury committee. There is a live feed here.

Hughes started by telling the committee that he wrote to the chancellor earlier this year to say that, when his five-year term ends later this year, he would like to have a second term in office.

We are of course negotiating an economic deal which will, I hope … mitigate the tariffs.

The US is our closest ally. Our defence, our security, our intelligence are bound up in a way that no two other countries are.

So it’s obviously in our national interest to have a close working relationship with the US, which we’ve had for decades, and I want to ensure we have for decades to come.

We are obviously working with the sectors most impacted at pace on that.

Nobody wants to see a trade war but I have to act in the national interests.

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‘I like Rupert Lowe’s plain speaking’: suspended MP haunts Nigel Farage’s big rally

As Reform UK launched its English local elections campaign in Birmingham there were murmurs among activists about the fate of a ‘popular figure’

There was one name on the lips of many Reform supporters before their party’s local election campaign launch in Birmingham on Friday night, but it wasn’t Nigel Farage.

Instead, conversation turned to Rupert Lowe, one of five Reform MPs elected last year, who was suspended this month when allegations of bullying emerged, the day after he had described Farage as a “messianic” leader of a protest party.

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Labour ads use NHS to attack Farage’s views before major Reform rally

Billboards in Birmingham cite party leader’s remarks about a new funding model as local elections campaigning begins

Labour has begun an all-out assault on Nigel Farage over his views on the NHS in the run-up to key elections in May, as the Reform UK leader prepared to host what is billed as his party’s biggest ever rally in Birmingham.

In a coordinated campaign before Farage spoke at a 10,000-person event in the city on Friday evening, Labour paid for nearly a dozen billboard posters around the city with messages about his talk about replacing the NHS with an insurance-based healthcare system.

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Labour mayoral candidate on race to stop Reform – and ‘Doge Lincolnshire’

Jason Stockwood, ex-chair of Grimsby Town FC, has plan for keeping rival Andrea Jenkyns from implementing US-style cuts

Labour can beat Reform UK by focusing relentlessly on the cost of living, the party’s mayoral candidate for Greater Lincolnshire, who is taking on the Conservative defector Andrea Jenkyns, has said.

Jason Stockwood, the former chair of Grimsby Town football club, is standing for Labour in the most high-profile mayoral race of the local elections.

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Half of England’s county councils due to hold elections could ask for delay – reports

At least 12 councils may request postponement of May elections amid government devolution plans

Half of the county councils due to have elections in England this spring could ask to have them postponed.

Local elections are due to take place in 21 county council areas in England in May, but at least 12 of them are poised to ask ministers for a delay, the BBC and the Times reported.

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Ex-defence secretary Grant Shapps says he has seen ‘no evidence’ for Jenrick’s claim about SAS killing terrorists – UK politics live

Senior Tories condemn leadership hopeful’s claim UK special forces are killing terrorists over fears that European laws would free detained assailants

Popular Conservatism, or PopCon, has released the results of a survey of party members suggesting more than half of them favour a merger with Reform UK. Some 30% of the respondents said they tended to support the idea, and 23% were strongly in favour. The survey covered 470 members.

Annunziata Rees-Mogg, PopCon’s head of communications and a former Brexit party MEP, said:

Every Conservative activist and canvasser knows people who had been Tories, but voted Reform UK in July. It is no surprise our panellists understand that the next leader of the party needs to take action to bring many like-minded voters back to the Tories. Almost three-quarters want a relationship with Reform in order to unite the right.

The answer I was often given by people in government at the time was that lockdowns were very popular.

They were getting 60, 70, 80% popularity ratings in the opinion polls. But you mustn’t believe those opinion polls, they’re basically nonsense.

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Labour gains in leave areas may cut swing needed for overall majority

Analysis reveals voters switching from the Tories in pro-Brexit seats could make a Starmer election victory easier to achieve

Voters are switching from the Tories to Labour in the most pro-leave parts of the country in such numbers that Keir Starmer may need a far lower overall swing from the Conservatives to win a parliamentary majority than was previously believed, election analysts have claimed.

In their analysis of this month’s local elections, professors Robert Ford of Manchester University and John Curtice of Strathclyde University both noted that the bigger the 2016 vote was for leave in an area, the higher the swing was to Labour.

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Little sign that Sunak will tack towards centre after local elections rout

PM and allies seemingly intent on staying the course in face of conflicting calls on how to avoid wipeout when country goes to polls

As the terrible council and mayoral results rolled in for the Conservatives on Friday night, was there any part of Rishi Sunak that regretted sealing Boris Johnson’s fate as prime minister by resigning as his chancellor less than two years ago?

This could have been Johnson’s defeat, hurtling towards a Labour landslide at a general election, with Sunak and his allies plotting how to replace him thereafter.

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Labour to target south of England at general election, campaign chief says

Pat McFadden says local election results give the party confidence it can win ‘blue wall’ seats that are ‘turning red’

Labour is planning to target the south of England heavily at the general election as the local election results show some “blue wall” seats are turning red, Keir Starmer’s election chief has said.

The shadow cabinet minister Pat McFadden said Labour was advancing in southern Tory heartlands and it was wrong to think the Lib Dems were the only challengers to the Conservatives in the south.

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Andy Street tells Tories not to abandon moderate Conservatism as party mulls over dire election results – UK politics live

West Midlands mayor had been expected to hold on but was defeated by Labour by 1,508 votes to cap awful results for Tories

Good morning. The local elections are over, all but three results (one council, and two police and crime commissioner posts) are now in, and they have been just about as dire for Rishi Sunak and the Conservatives as the national opinion poll figures implied they would be. On the plus side for Sunak, the rebels in his party who were hoping that terrible results would provide the springboard for a no confidence motion seem to have accepted that they don’t have the numbers, and the notional “coup” has been called off. But that won’t stop Tory MPs being pitched into a difficult debate about their future, and last night Andy Street made a defiant intervention, telling his party not to drift to the right.

Street had been expected to hold on as mayor of the West Midlands. He was defeated by Labour by just 1,508 votes, and in an interview with Sky News afterwards he said the message for his party from his campaign was that it should not give up on moderate conservatism. He said:

The thing everyone should take from Birmingham and the West Midlands tonight is this brand of moderative, inclusive, tolerant conservatism, that gets on and delivered, has come within an ace of beating the Labour party in what they considered to be their backyard - that’s the message from here tonight.

I would definitely not advise that drift.

The psychology here is really very straightforward isn’t it: this is the youngest, most diverse, one of the most urban places in Britain and we’ve done, many would say, extremely well over a consistent period.

The public are not rushing to vote for Sir Keir, though they feel sorely let down by us. They want a reason to vote Conservative, but we are failing to provide them with one. We need to be frank about this if we are to have any chance of fixing the problem.

On tax, migration, the small boats and law and order, we need to demonstrate strong leadership, not managerialism. Make a big and bold offer on tax cuts, rather than tweaking as we saw in the Budget. Place a cap on legal migration once and for all. Leave the ECHR to stop the boats. Tangible improvement to our NHS and tougher sentences for criminals. Start holding failing police chiefs to account so that antisocial behaviour, shoplifting and knife crime are actually sorted out. Take back control of our streets from the extremists. And instead of paying lip service in guidance on transgender ideology in schools, let’s actually change the law to ban the abuse of our children.

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London mayor election result due as Labour takes Liverpool and South Yorkshire – live

The results of mayoral elections in Greater Manchester, London and the West Midlands are among those expected on Saturday

Rishi Sunak is braced for the result of key mayoral elections in London and the West Midlands, after the Conservatives were trounced in the first day of local election results.

As Friday’s result declarations closed, the Conservatives had suffered a net loss of 371 seats, and lost control of 10 councils.

Cheshire

Dorset

Hertfordshire

Kent

Merseyside

Sussex

Thames Valley

Warwickshire

West Midlands

Wiltshire

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Conservatives crushed by ‘worst local election result’ in years

Spread of Tory losses leads former minister to say there’s ‘no such thing as a safe seat any more’

The Conservatives are facing one of their worst local election results in 40 years, with striking Labour gains across England and Wales in key battlegrounds they need to secure victory at the general election.

The spread of the Conservative losses led one former minister to claim there was “no such thing really as a safe Tory seat any more”, but the prime minister appeared committed to clinging on until polling day, with rebels in his own party lacking the support to oust him.

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Big Tory losses but no Labour landslide. What might happen at Westminster? – a visual analysis

Tory council representation has imploded, but Labour’s gains have not been seismic. These charts show what this may signal for a general election

Conservative representation has collapsed to its lowest level since 1998 in the areas that voted in Thursday’s local elections, according to a Guardian analysis.

The Tories now control 19% of seats in the 98 council areas that had announced results by 20:40 on 3 May – their lowest level since Labour’s Tony Blair swept to power in the late 1990s.

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‘Promising signs’: Greens dominate in Bristol election

As party narrowly misses out on overall majority, co-leader says it has won spread of urban and rural seats

The Greens are celebrating a spectacular win in Bristol, where it became by far the largest party, as it headed for a record number of councillors in local elections across England.

Party officials said they believed they were on track to finish with more than 800 members on more than 170 councils.

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Labour’s Claire Ward elected first mayor of East Midlands as Sunak gets boost in Tees Valley after Tory losses – live

Party source describes region as ‘beating heart of general election battleground’ as prime minister says Labour threw ‘lot of mud’

The results of the London mayoral contest and London assembly elections are due on Saturday. Labour’s Sadiq Khan is seeking a third term and polls have put him comfortably ahead of Tory Susan Hall, despite jitters in Khan’s campaign team.

Following the closure of the polls tonight, Khan said his campaign and Labour activists “sent out a message of fairness, of equality and of hope”.

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