In today’s newsletter: Mark Carney has pulled off an astonishing turnaround in his party’s fortunes. How did he do it – and what can progressives learn from his victory?

Good morning. At the beginning of the year, Canada’s Conservatives had a 25-point lead over the Liberal government, and their leader, Pierre Poilievre, looked a dead cert to be the country’s next prime minister. But as the votes cast in yesterday’s election have been counted, the story of the campaign has been confirmed: victory for the Liberals and their new leader, Mark Carney, who have extended their decade of rule by another five years.

It isn’t settled yet whether the Liberals will govern with a majority, or be the leading party in a hung parliament, as in the last two elections; Reuters projected a minority government a short while ago, while the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation said it was still too close to call. Either way, it represents a remarkable turnaround, and vindication for Carney’s efforts to present himself as the prime ministerial candidate who would most effectively stand up to Donald Trump. As for Poilievre: the result isn’t in yet, but he is in serious danger of losing his seat.

European blackout | Spain’s prime minister, Pedro Sánchez, has said “everything possible is being done” to restore power following an unprecedented blackout in Spain and Portugal. The blackout – blamed by the Portuguese operator on extreme temperature variations – left tens of millions of people without trains, metros, traffic lights, ATMs, phone connections and internet access.

Ukraine | Vladimir Putin has declared a three-day full ceasefire in the war with Ukraine in May to mark the 80th anniversary of the victory of the Soviet Union in the second world war. Ukraine responded to Putin’s announcement by calling for an immediate month-long ceasefire.

Asylum | Foreign nationals convicted of sex offences will be banned from claiming asylum in the UK, home secretary Yvette Cooper has said. Human rights organisations warned that “irresponsible” changes to immigration law are being rushed through to challenge a surge in the polls from the Reform party ahead of Thursday’s local elections.

Politics | Pay rises for NHS staff and teachers must be paid from existing budgets, the Treasury has warned, setting up the potential for strike action. Separate independent pay review bodies for teachers and NHS staff in England are reportedly set to make higher pay rise recommendations than ministers had suggested.

Donald Trump | Senior Whitehall officials have asked golf bosses whether they can host the 2028 Open championship at Donald Trump’s Turnberry course after repeated requests from the US president, sources have said. One person with knowledge of the discussions said: “The government is doing everything it can to get close to Trump.”