A year after fighting began, the war is intensifying. How many more civilians will pay?

That wars are easy to begin and hard to end is a commonplace, but one which ambitious leaders still forget. Within weeks of launching his assault on the region of Tigray last November – saying its authorities had attacked a military camp – the Ethiopian prime minister announced that the operation had been completed. In fact, one year on, the conflict continues to escalate. Thousands of Ethiopians have died and millions have been forced from their homes. Atrocities have been committed by all parties, including massacres of civilians, extensive sexual violence and the use of food as a weapon. Last week, the prime minister, Abiy Ahmed, declared a state of emergency as the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) suggested its soldiers might advance towards the capital. The Nobel peace prize laureate urged ordinary citizens to take up weapons and told them that “dying for Ethiopia is a duty [for] all of us”. A country already in dire straits is on the brink of catastrophe, Amnesty International warned on Friday.

Bolstered by Eritrean troops, federal forces briefly captured Tigray’s capital, but were forced out this summer. Though Mr Abiy has sought to buy more weapons and enlist more recruits, Tigrayan forces have broken through the blockade of their region and seized towns to the south, towards Addis Ababa. They could also seek to take the Djibouti corridor, the main trade artery, allowing them to reroute aid to Tigray, where desperate food shortages persist – and potentially to hit supplies to the capital. On Friday, eight anti-government factions vowed to ally with the TPLF – though the most significant element, the Oromo Liberation Army, already fights alongside it.