Category Archives: Infectious Diseases

Covid live news: Boris Johnson warns of pressure on NHS for weeks as Omicron ‘continues to surge’ in UK

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Latest updates: UK prime minister warns hospitals will be under ‘considerable’ pressure for the ‘next couple of weeks and maybe more’

Québec, Canada proceeded with the first of three planned closures of non-essential retail stores on Sunday as the provincial government attempts to curb a new Covid wave and strain on hospitals.

Québec premier Francois Legault announced last week that the majority of the province’s stores would be closed for the next three Sundays, with the exception of pharmacies, convenience stores and petrol stations.

The last thing businesses need during these difficult times is additional restrictions. We must leave the choice to businesses to open or close at the time that makes the most sense for them, their employees and their customers.

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Can you capture the complex reality of the pandemic with numbers? Well, we tried… | David Spiegelhalter and Anthony Masters

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Throughout 2021, two leading lights of the Royal Statistical Society Covid-19 Task Force drew on data for a weekly Observer column, and found themselves in the middle of Covid culture wars

Individual experiences and suffering are, of course, at the heart of the pandemic. But one way to understand what has happened is through putting those experiences together – and statistics are those personal stories writ large. And this pandemic has brought unprecedented demand to explain all the numbers that have been flying around.

This has not been without its problems and we’ve had to learn some hard lessons, such as the journalistic skill of brevity. Since January 2021, we’ve been writing a weekly column in this paper about Covid numbers, covering everything from infections to deaths, vaccines to mental health, masks to lockdowns.

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Britain got it wrong on Covid: long lockdown did more harm than good, says scientist

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A new book outlines the mistakes and missteps that made UK pandemic worse

There was a distinctive moment, at the start of the Covid-19 pandemic, that neatly encapsulated the mistakes and confusion of Britain’s early efforts to tackle the disease, says Mark Woolhouse. At a No 10 briefing in March 2020, cabinet minister Michael Gove warned the virus did not discriminate. “Everyone is at risk,” he announced.

And nothing could be further from the truth, argues Professor Woolhouse, an expert on infectious diseases at Edinburgh University. “I am afraid Gove’s statement was simply not true,” he says. “In fact, this is a very discriminatory virus. Some people are much more at risk from it than others. People over 75 are an astonishing 10,000 times more at risk than those who are under 15.”

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New studies reinforce belief that Omicron is less likely to damage lungs

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Six research groups’ findings all suggest variant multiplies more in throats and causes less serious disease

A growing body of evidence indicates that the Omicron Covid variant is more likely to infect the throat than the lungs, which scientists believe may explain why it appears to be more infectious but less deadly than other versions of the virus. Six studies – four published since Christmas Eve – have found that Omicron does not damage people’s lungs as much as the Delta and other previous variants of Covid. The studies have yet to be peer-reviewed by other scientists.

“The result of all the mutations that make Omicron different from previous variants is that it may have altered its ability to infect different sorts of cells,” said Deenan Pillay, professor of virology at University College London.

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Grief, needle phobia, lack of trust: why we refused Covid jabs – and what changed our minds

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Three former refuseniks reveal their misgivings about having the vaccination and what finally convinced them to take the plunge

The UK’s vaccine rollout has largely been a success: more than 90% of the population aged 12 and over has now had at least one dose, with just over half having had a second dose and the booster.

However, there are thousands of people who still haven’t had a jab, despite estimates suggesting that 90% of the most severely ill Covid patients in hospital at the moment are unvaccinated.

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I’m a UK Covid scientist. Here’s a sample of the abuse in my inbox

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Messages may contain unhinged expletives, threatening tropes … or one of my interviews set to music

“You scaremongering ignorant fucking cunt, you and your retarded team made predictions that could have fucked this country for billions of pounds, fucked Christmas for a second time and cost thousands thier [sic] jobs only to have your most pessimistic ballshit [sic] now found to be just that. How fucks like you can sleep at night is beyond me and I hope you are fucking held to account for what you have done and could have done if there weren’t some people in the government with a brain.”

How would you like to get this in your inbox? As a senior scientist advising the government on Covid, I get this sort of email on a fairly regular basis. Indeed, (someone calling himself) Mr Roberts (who sent this) is a regular offender. What particularly upset me about this email was that it wasn’t sent to me, but to a junior member of my team. Awful, isn’t it?

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German optimism over Omicron as Europe dampens new year revelry

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Covid expert hopeful for ‘relatively normal’ winter 2022 but prevalence limits celebrations across continent

Germany’s leading coronavirus expert has expressed optimism that his country could expect a “relatively normal” winter in 2022 as Europe prepared to ring in the new year in muted fashion, with many countries limiting celebrations.

As the highly transmissible Omicron variant fuels a record-breaking surge in Covid infections across the continent, many governments have curtailed mass public gatherings and either closed or imposed curfews on nightclubs.

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‘Tit for tat’: why hunt for Covid’s origins still mired in politics and controversy

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Scientific consensus absent as impasse between China and west continues to hamper tracing effort

Robert Garry, a professor of microbiology and immunology at Tulane medical school in Louisiana, got a call from his university management telling him that agents from the FBI and CIA had requested a chat about his research into the origins of Covid-19.

Garry agreed and on 30 July three agents flew down to Louisiana to talk to him in person.

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We can vaccinate 70% of the world against Covid by mid-2022. Here’s how

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The WHO’s vaccination goal is achievable – but it will take proper funding, better vaccine distribution and jabs with longer shelf lives

While western countries scramble with their booster rollout to deal with the Omicron wave, only 8.4% of people in low-income countries have had at least one Covid vaccination dose.

The gap in the vaccination rates between high- and low-income countries is wider than ever. We cannot keep turning a blind eye to it.

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Two years of coronavirus: how pandemic unfolded around the world

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In December 2019 the WHO was told of a cluster of pneumonia cases in Wuhan, China. These charts show how Covid-19 has spread across the world since then

Two years ago today, as New Year’s Eve fireworks lit up skies across the world, news reached the World Health Organization (WHO) about an outbreak of “pneumonia” in Wuhan, China, the cause of which was unknown.

There had been several cases in December and possibly as far back as November in the region. But the subsequent WHO announcement was the first time that the world at large was made aware of its existence.

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Covid live: France reports over 200,000 cases for second day in a row; eastern Europe’s death toll reaches 1 million

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French officials report over 206,000 cases; number of people to die from Covid in eastern Europe has reached 1 million people

Here’s a reminder of the news overnight that NHS England is looking to set up new “pop-up” Covid facilities. My colleagues Rowena Mason and Aubrey Allegretti report:

NHS England confirmed that it was creating new small-scale “Nightingale” facilities with up to 100 beds each at eight hospitals across the country. The health service said it had asked trusts to identify empty spaces to accommodate beds in places such as gyms or teaching areas. NHS managers are aiming to create up to 4,000 beds as surge capacity if needed, with work on the first tranche, in temporary structures, starting this week.

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Covid: how long are people infectious and how do isolation rules vary?

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The US has cut the self-isolation period to five days, while in England it is seven with negative tests

The US has announced it is cutting the recommended self-isolation time with Covid to five days. How long are people with Covid infectious for, and why do the rules vary between countries?

What are the rules for self-isolation in the UK?

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Omicron is ‘not the same disease’ as earlier Covid waves, says UK scientist

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Sir John Bell says disease ‘appears less severe’ as other scientists criticise lack of new restrictions in England

Omicron is “not the same disease we were seeing a year ago” and high Covid death rates in the UK are “now history”, a leading immunologist has said.

Sir John Bell, regius professor of medicine at Oxford University and the government’s life sciences adviser, said that although hospital admissions had increased in recent weeks as Omicron spreads through the population, the disease “appears to be less severe and many people spend a relatively short time in hospital”. Fewer patients were needing high-flow oxygen and the average length of stay was down to three days, he said.

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Covid live: US, UK, France, Portugal and Greece all break new daily cases records

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US reports 512,553 cases; UK reports 129,000; France reports 179,807; Portugal 17,172; and Greece 21,657

Stock markets have continued to gain ground despite the surge of Omicron around the world.

Asian markets lifted on Tuesday with the Nikkei in Japan up nearly 1%, Shanghai up 0.2%, Seoul up 0.1% and Sydney’s ASX200 is up 0.44%.

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Guidance v rules: which Covid measures work better?

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Analysis: the Tories are arguing against further restrictions – but what do scientists think works best to prevent the spread of Covid?

They are questions that have cast a shadow over the festive season: will new Covid measures be needed, and if so, when and what form will they take?

The Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) has said peak admissions could be comparable with or even greater than previous highs without significant behaviour change or further interventions, but many Tory backbenchers have argued against legal restrictions, saying that the public should be trusted to make their own decisions on the risks they wish to take.

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Engineering the future: meet the Africa prize shortlist innovators

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Turning invasive plants into a force for good and powering healthcare with solar – here are three of the 2022 nominees

From a solar-powered crib that treats jaundiced babies to fibre made from water hyacinth that absorbs oil spills, innovators from nine African countries have been shortlisted for the Royal Academy of Engineering’s 2022 Africa prize.

This year half of the shortlist of 16 are women, and for the first time it includes Togolese and Congolese inventors. The entrepreneurs will undergo eight months of business training and mentoring before a winner is chosen, who will receive £25,000, and three runners-up, who win £10,000 each. All the projects are sustainable solutions to issues such as access to healthcare, farming resilience, reducing waste, and energy efficiency. The Guardian spoke to three of the shortlisted candidates.

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Covid live news: new restrictions for Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland

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New coronavirus restrictions are being introduced in Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland as the country’s leaders try to combat rising Covid cases

China has reported 206 new Covid cases on Christmas Day, a significant jump from 140 a day earlier, its health authority said on Sunday and Reuters reports.

Of the new infections, 158 were locally transmitted, according to a statement by the National Health Commission, compared with 87 cases the previous day.

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Tensions are rising about pandemic modelling, but we ‘gloomsters’ are saving lives

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Scientists are often blamed for leading to excessive curbs on society. But they are cautious for a very good reason

The past week has seen tensions rising about scientific modelling during the pandemic. Projections cited by UK and devolved governments as they tightened Covid restrictions have led to strained exchanges. But modelling is essential because it tell us:

• What are the range of possible outcomes based on what we know?
Society can’t just wait for things to happen. We can and do save lives by being prepared for a range of things, only some of which happen. As information increases, the model improves, and the range of outcomes narrows as scenarios are eliminated.

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Omicron: bleak New Year or beginning of the end for the pandemic?

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Scientists are cautiously optimistic that the variant may be a sign the virus is losing its power, despite the high infection figures

Once again, Britain is experiencing a festive season hit by waves of Covid-19 infections. Last year, Christmas and New Year were spoiled by the appearance of the Alpha variant. This time, it is Omicron that has sent case numbers soaring. Christmas cancellations have swept through Britain’s restaurants, pubs and clubs and left the country on the brink of another bleak New Year as the NHS warns once more that it is facing the threat of being overwhelmed by spiralling numbers of seriously ill patients.

The scenario has raised fears that this now represents the shape of Christmases to come. Social restrictions and lockdown threats could become our normal festive fare.

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NSW reports 6,288 Covid cases on Christmas Day as Australia hits record infections

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Victoria has 2,108 new infections and Queensland 765 as tens of thousands around the country forced into isolation

New South Wales has recorded its highest ever Covid daily caseload, with 6,288 new infections announced on Christmas Day, as tens of thousands of Australians are forced into isolation over the festive period.

Covid transmission is also continuing to surge in Victoria, where authorities announced 2,108 new Covid-19 infections and six deaths from the virus.

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