Will Omicron kill Christmas? How science stacks up in boosters v Covid variant battle

Analysis: UK faces grim winter if vaccines offer poor overall protection, but if the virus has weak powers to evade immunity, hospital cases can be contained

Two competing forces will determine Omicron’s impact on the nation over the next few weeks. The power of booster jabs to give last-minute protection against Covid-19 will be pitted against the new variant’s ability to elude existing immunity. The outcome will decide whether our festive season is going to be muted or miserable.

If enough arms are jabbed with booster vaccines, while Omicron turns out to have poor powers to evade immunity, then there is hope hospital cases will be contained and the NHS will be protected. Severe restrictions in the new year – including the prospect of lockdowns – could be avoided.

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Scientists fear falling trust in Boris Johnson could harm bid to curb Omicron surge

Researchers say new rules may be needed to cut deaths, but there are concerns that ‘fed-up’ people will ignore government

Ministers announced a huge expansion of the booster vaccine campaign on Saturday night, amid warnings that further restrictions will be needed imminently to prevent tens of thousands of deaths.

With new Covid measures being discussed in Whitehall and claims of people being turned away from booster walk-in centres, third jabs will be opened up to those in their 30s from Monday in England. Those who had their second jab three months ago or more will be eligible.

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As Covid mutates, the vaccine makers are adapting too

Focus on the exciting potential of T-cell immunity is spurring the sector on to create a new generation of jabs

The speed at which scientists worked to develop the first Covid jabs was unprecedented. Just nine months after the UK went into lockdown, 90-year-old Margaret Keenan officially became the first person in the world outside a trial to receive the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine. But the virus is mutating, and the emergence of the Omicron variant last month is already focusing attention on the next generation of jabs.

So what do we know about the new Covid-19 vaccines? One change is with delivery mechanisms, such as San Francisco firm Vaxart’s vaccine-in-a-pill, and Scancell’s spring-powered injectors that pierce the skin without a needle. But the biggest development is in T-cell technology. Produced by the bone marrow, T-cells are white blood cells that form a key part of the immune system. While current vaccines mainly generate antibodies that stick to the virus and stop it infecting the body, the new vaccines prime T-cells to find and destroy infected cells, thus preventing viral replication and disease. (The current vaccines also produce a T-cell response, but to a lesser extent.)

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Why uncontrolled HIV may be behind the emergence of Omicron

Analysis: experts say weakened immune systems may give rise to new Covid variants – so HIV prevention could be key to stopping coronavirus

Where did Omicron come from? By all accounts it is a weird variant. Though highly mutated, it descended not from one of the other variants of concern, such as Alpha, Beta or Delta, but from coronavirus that was circulating maybe 18 months ago. So where has it been all this time? And why is it only wreaking havoc now?

Researchers are exploring a number of hunches. One is that Omicron arose in a remote region of southern Africa but failed to spread until now. Another is that it evolved in infected animals, such as rats, and then crossed back into humans. But a third explanation is gaining ground as more data come to light, that Omicron arose in a person with a weakened immune system: someone having cancer treatment perhaps, an organ transplant patient or someone with uncontrolled HIV.

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Victoria records 13 deaths and NSW three; Qld changes quarantine rules – as it happened

Sydney pub and club at centre of scare. Bushfire rages in Margaret River in Western Australia. This blog is now closed

Two of the government’s biggest departments were found to have broken freedom of information law within a month of each other, prompting the watchdog to demand urgent explanations and reforms from both, documents show.

The Office of the Australian Information Commissioner (OAIC) last month found the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade breached the law by dragging out and eventually refusing a request by lawyer and FoI specialist Peter Timmins, documents seen by Guardian Australia show.

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Mouse bite may have infected Taiwan lab worker with Covid

Employee at high-security facility tests positive in island’s first local infection in weeks

Health officials in Taiwan are investigating whether a mouse bite may have been responsible for a laboratory worker testing positive for Covid, the island’s first local infection in weeks.

The authorities are scrambling to work out how the employee at Academia Sinica, the country’s top research institute, contracted the virus last month.

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Scientists use ostrich cells to make glowing Covid detection masks

Japanese researchers use bird antibodies to detect virus under ultraviolet light

Japanese researchers have developed masks that use ostrich antibodies to detect Covid-19 by glowing under ultraviolet light.

The discovery, by Yasuhiro Tsukamoto and his team at Kyoto Prefectural University in western Japan, could provide for low-cost testing of the virus at home.

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CDC chief says Omicron is ‘mild’ as early data comes in on US spread of variant

Agency is working on detailed analysis of what the new mutant form of the coronavirus might hold for the US

More than 40 people in the US have been found to be infected with the Omicron variant so far, and more than three-quarters of them had been vaccinated, the chief of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has said. But she added nearly all of them were only mildly ill.

In an interview with the Associated Press, Dr Rochelle Walensky, director of the CDC, said the data is very limited and the agency is working on a more detailed analysis of what the new mutant form of the coronavirus might hold for the US.

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UK Covid live: Met police will not investigate No 10 Christmas party allegations

Latest updates: Scotland Yard cites ‘absence of evidence’, as PM triggers plan B Covid restrictions

Downing Street sources are saying this morning that “no decisions have been made” on a move to plan B. But, frankly, an FT story carries more credibility in the Westminster media village.

Ben Riley-Smith, the Telegraph political editor, thinks the timing of such a move would be suspicious.

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Allegra Stratton resigns after No 10 Christmas party video

Boris Johnson ‘sorry to lose’ spokesperson for climate summit who was seen in footage joking about party during lockdown

Allegra Stratton has stepped down as the government’s spokesperson for the Cop26 climate summit after footage emerged of her joking about a party at Downing Street during the peak of lockdown rules in December last year.

Boris Johnson told a coronavirus press briefing on Wednesday that Stratton had been an “outstanding spokeswoman … I am very sorry to lose her”. But he added: “I take responsibility for everything that happens in this government and I have throughout the pandemic.”

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Three doses of Pfizer vaccine likely to protect against Omicron infection, tests suggest

Initial findings indicate stark reduction in protection against new Covid variant from two vaccine doses

Three doses of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine are likely to protect against infection with the Omicron variant but two doses may not, according to laboratory data that will increase pressure to speed up booster programmes.

Tests using antibodies in blood samples have given some of the first insights into how far Omicron escapes immunity, showing a stark drop-off in the predicted protection against infection or any type of disease for people who have had two doses. The findings suggest that, for Omicron, Pfizer/BioNTech should now be viewed as a “three-dose vaccine”.

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Anger as Jair Bolsonaro to allow unvaccinated visitors into Brazil

There are fears the decision will reverse the gains made by a successful vaccination campaign

The Brazilian government has been accused of seeking to turn the South American country into a haven for unvaccinated tourists after it shunned calls – including from its own health regulator – to demand proof of vaccination from visitors.

The decision – announced on Tuesday by the health minister, Marcelo Queiroga – sparked anger in a nation that has lost more than 615,000 lives to a Covid outbreak the president, Jair Bolsonaro, stands accused of catastrophically mishandling.

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Covid news: UK reports 51,342 new infections; vaccines protect against new variant – as it happened

Latest figures come amid concern over spread of Omicron variant; Pfizer says third jab increased antibodies by factor of 25

Germany reported 69,601 cases of Covid-19 and 527 deaths in the past 24 hours, according to the Robert Koch Institute, taking the total cases in the country to 6,291,621. There have been 104,047 deaths.

South Korean authorities are urging people to get vaccinated as case rise in the east Asian nation generally regarded as having dealth with the pandemic well.

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Covid live: early signs Omicron more transmissible, UK PM says; Scottish firms urged to let staff work from home

Early indications Omicron more transmissible than Delta, says Boris Johnson; Nicola Sturgeon says staff should work from home until mid-January

All international arrivals to the UK are now required to take a pre-departure Covid-19 test to tackle the new Omicron variant.

The tightened requirements have just come into force from 4am (GMT) on Tuesday 7 December.

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Covid not over and next pandemic could be more lethal, says Oxford jab creator

Prof Dame Sarah Gilbert says this will not be the last time a virus threatens our lives and our livelihoods

The coronavirus pandemic that has so far killed more than 5 million people worldwide is far from over and the next one could be even more lethal, the creator of the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine has said.

As fears grow over the threat posed by the highly mutated Omicron variant, detected in more than 30 countries, Prof Dame Sarah Gilbert cautioned that while it was increasingly obvious that “this pandemic is not done with us”, the next one could be worse.

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Covid live: UK reports 43,992 cases and 54 deaths; protests in Brussels turn violent

Hospitals already struggling to cope as they enter winter, says president of Royal College of Emergency Medicine; people march in Brussels against latest restrictions

The UK’s deputy prime minister Dominic Raab has defended the government’s decision to reintroduce pre-departure tests. He has told Sky News:

I know that is a burden for the travel industry but we have made huge, huge strides in this country. We have got to take the measures targeted forensically to stop the new variant seeding in this country to create a bigger problem.

We have taken a balanced approach but we are always alert to extra risk that takes us back not forward.

Well of course it was the Labour party who were calling for pre-testing to take place because we’re very concerned that the government consistently throughout the pandemic have been very late in making the calls that are required to keep our borders safe, very late in terms of trying to ... control the spread of that virus. And what we want to do is to make sure that we don’t jeopardise the vaccination rollout.

The worst thing in the world after all the sacrifices that we’ve made is that a new variant comes in and completely takes the rug from under that programme. And so it’s very important the government get a grip, it’s very important the government takes swift action and frankly it shouldn’t be for the opposition to keep continually one step ahead of the government. The government needs to take control themselves.

Many flying home for their first Christmas since the pandemic began will be hit with scandalous testing costs. Unscrupulous private providers are pocketing millions, and leaving many families forced to shell out huge sums.

Ministers are sitting on their hands while people who want to do the right thing are paying the price for this broken market.

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Two hippos test positive for Covid at Antwerp zoo

Staff at zoo in Belgium investigating cause of infections, which could be first reported cases in species

Two hippos at Antwerp zoo in Belgium have tested positive for Covid-19 in what could be the first reported cases in the species, staff said.

Imani, aged 14, and Hermien, 41, have no symptoms apart from runny noses, but the zoo said they had been put in quarantine as a precaution.

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Dealing with uncertainty about the Omicron variant | David Spiegelhalter and Anthony Masters

Caution is sensible when so much is unknown

The race is on to understand the new variant identified by scientists in South Africa and Botswana, dubbed Omicron (the next Greek letter was “nu”, but this could have been mistaken for “new”). Fears include greater spread, worse disease or reduced effectiveness of treatments and vaccines.

Increased transmission can arise from two factors. First, there is an intrinsic advantage, with a heightened “basic reproduction number” R0; in a susceptible population, that is the average number of people each case infects, although after 20 months of pandemic this has become a notional concept. It was around 3 for the original wild-type virus, compared to around 6 for Delta and possibly rather more for Omicron.

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Scott Morrison repeats that Australians have ‘had a gutful of governments in their lives’; Peter Cundall dies at 94 – As it happened

Gardening legend Peter Cundall dies aged 94 as PM repeats that Australians have had a ‘gutful of governments in their lives’. This blog is now closed

Hunt is asked whether states, like Queensland, will hold off opening state borders until at least 80% of kids aged five to 11 are vaccinated given today’s announcement.

Hunt:

There is no reason for that. The Doherty modelling was set out very clearly on the 80% rates for double dosed across the country for 16 plus, and what we have seen now is that in terms of the 12 to 15-year-olds, we have now had an extra 1.8 million vaccinations over and above the Doherty modelling. The Doherty modelling was based on an 80% national rate for double dosed and didn’t include 12 to 15-year-olds.

A bit over a fifth of all cases of Covid are actually in the under 12s. Indeed, some of the early data with Omicron suggests it may actually be higher for the Omicron variant ... While most kids to get fairly mild infection and only a limited number end up in ICU, is great, there are bigger impacts.

Unfortunately about one in 3,000 of the kids who get Covid actually end up with this funny immunological condition called multi-system inflammatory condition. Those kids can end up being very sick for months. It is not the same as long Covid but it has some things in common, and it has a whole range of symptoms where the kid is just not well. That is one of the things we are protecting against by vaccinating children...

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From pandemic to endemic: this is how we might get back to normal

Covid-19 is unlikely to be eradicated, experts say, but societies in the past have learned to live with diseases

First, the bad news. With unpredictable outbreaks still occurring around the world, and variants like Omicron raising questions about the virus’s contagiousness, we are very much still in a pandemic.

The good news: while it’s difficult to predict the exact timing, most scientists agree that the Covid-19 pandemic will end and that the virus will become endemic. That means the virus will probably never be eliminated entirely, but as more people get vaccinated and become exposed to it, infections will eventually arise at a consistently low rate, and fewer people will become severely ill. An area where vaccination and booster rates are high will probably see endemicity sooner than a region with lower rates.

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