Wednesday briefing: How likely is all-out war between Israel and Hezbollah?

In today’s newsletter: Lebanon’s border villages reduced to rubble and 150,000 people displaced in tit-for-tat strikes that commentators say risk turning into a wider conflict

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Good morning. “Nobody wants a war – not Israel, not Hezbollah, not Iran,” military historian Prof Danny Orbach told the Guardian last week. “But it’s very difficult to see how you can solve the situation without one.”

That is the frightening ratchet that has been operating on the border between Lebanon and Israel since the 7 October attacks, where Israel is engaged in tit-for-tat strikes with Hezbollah that have left hundreds of people dead and 150,000 displaced.

UK politics | Keir Starmer has suspended seven MPs from the Labour party in an unprecedented response to an early rebellion supporting an amendment to scrap the two-child benefit limit. The move to suspend MPs from the party’s left, including the former shadow chancellor John McDonnell, drew criticism from some MPs who voted with the government.

Health | The births of babies to black mothers are almost twice as likely to be investigated for potential NHS safety failings, Guardian research has found, in a shocking disparity that has been labelled a “national disgrace”. The head of the Royal College of Midwives (RCM) said the issue was “purely down to institutional racism”.

US news | The director of the US secret service has resigned over security lapses that enabled the assassination attempt against Donald Trump at a rally in Pennsylvania. Kimberly Cheatle quit a day after a contentious House hearing where members of both parties said that she had failed to answer basic questions about a “stunning operational failure”.

Leeds | Roma children who were taken into care, sparking unrest in Leeds last week, have been returned to their extended family. Police and social services removed the four children from a house in Harehills on Thursday to prevent them being taken abroad in breach of a court order.

Monarchy | King Charles is set for a huge £45m pay rise with an increase of more than 50% in his official annual income, official accounts reveal. Profits of £1.1bn from the crown estate mean the sovereign grant, which supports the official duties of the royal family, will rise from £86m in 2024-25 to £132m in 2025-26.

Both sides would prefer to end the fighting so that civilians can return home, but are entangled in a cycle of mutual escalation. ‘What’s going on now is an attrition war,’ says Khalil Helou, a retired Lebanese general. ‘One that we are losing, as Lebanon. And Hezbollah is losing. And Israel is losing.’

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Rubbish balloons from North Korea land on presidential office compound in Seoul

Resumption of flights comes after South boosted frontline broadcasts of K-pop songs and propaganda messages across the border

Balloons carrying rubbish sent by North Korea have fallen on the compound of South Korea’s presidential office, according to the Yonhap news agency.

Other South Korean media reported the balloons caused no damage. AFP reported that the balloons prompted Seoul to mobilise chemical response teams. Yonhap gave no further details.

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In southern Lebanon on the brink of war – podcast

Michael Safi travels to southern Lebanon where Hezbollah is trading strikes with Israeli forces and one misstep could result in all-out conflict

Travelling through a village called Kafr Kila in the mountains of southern Lebanon, all Michael Safi could see was destroyed buildings. Twisted wires and rubble littered the landscape and a solitary yellow Hezbollah flag fluttered in the rubble.

It is dangerous territory, patrolled by the UN’s peacekeeping force. Airstrikes from Israeli forces happen every few days and are met with volleys of Hezbollah rockets across the border. Ever since the Hamas attack on Israel on 7 October 2023, Hezbollah has stepped up its own conflict with Israel. The tit-for-tat attacks are calculated – with neither side wanting to fully escalate. But there is a growing tension and a fear that one misstep could result in all-out war. As Safi tours the country, he finds a population weary of war but also resilient and defiant.

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Bernie Sanders condemns speech to Congress by ‘war criminal’ Netanyahu

Independent senator says in floor speech invitation to Israeli PM, due to give address on Wednesday, is ‘disgrace’

The Vermont senator Bernie Sanders has condemned Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s upcoming address to the US Congress, calling him a “war criminal” presiding over a “rightwing extremist government”.

Sanders delivered his remarks on the Senate floor on Tuesday as Congress expects Netanyahu to give a speech to Congress on Wednesday afternoon. The speech comes after an underwhelming arrival to the US, just after President Joe Biden announced his withdrawal from November’s elections.

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Canada wildfires: 25,000 evacuate Jasper national park amid multiple blazes

Alberta officials order residents, seasonal workers and tourists to flee as fires and smoke descend on Rocky Mountain community

Out-of-control wildfires near the Canadian town of Jasper have forced more than 25,000 to flee one of the country’s largest national parks as multiple blazes and thick smoke descended on the Rocky Mountain community.

Officials in the province of Alberta ordered residents of the Jasper townsite to leave immediately on Monday night, and soon after they called for the park, more than 4,200 sq miles (10,900 sq km) in size, to be fully cleared out. The town is home to 5,000 full-time residents, alongside 5,000 seasonal workers. The park also had roughly 15,000 visitors at the time.

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Sonya Massey killing: family accuse police of attempted cover-up

Audio obtained by the Guardian reveals police dispatcher was told Black woman’s fatal wound was ‘self-inflicted’

The family of Sonya Massey, a 36-year-old Black woman who was shot in the face and killed by a white sheriff’s deputy in Illinois, have said police initially tried to cover up her killing.

Police audio obtained by the Guardian features someone on scene the night of Massey’s killing – presumably a deputy – saying Massey’s wound was “self-inflicted”. A dispatcher asks to confirm, and the person on scene repeats “self-inflicted”. The recording is in line with what the family says was misleading information given by police when Massey was taken to a hospital, where she was pronounced dead.

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Snoop Dogg to carry Olympic torch on final stages through Paris

US rapper will conclude torch’s relay through Saint-Denis and Olympic Village to mark start of 33rd Games

Snoop Dogg will carry the Olympic torch through the final stages when it passes through Paris before the opening ceremony on Friday.

The US rapper will be hoping he won’t Drop It Like It’s Hot when he holds the torch in Saint-Denis to mark the start of the 33rd Games.

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Centrist government to remain in power until after Paris Olympics, says Macron

France’s president says delay is to avoid disorder, after leftist coalition announces Lucie Castet as its pick to become PM

Emmanuel Macron has said he will maintain the country’s centrist caretaker government until the end of the Olympic Games in mid-August to avoid disorder, dismissing an effort by a leftwing alliance to name a prime minister.

His announcement in a TV interview came shortly after the leftist coalition that won the most votes in this month’s parliamentary elections selected the little-known civil servant Lucie Castets as its choice for prime minister.

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Doctors in Khan Younis overwhelmed as casualties of new Israeli invasion mount

Nasser hospital director pleas for medical supplies and says staff cannot save influx of patients as IDF continues assault

Doctors in the largest hospital in Gaza’s southern city of Khan Younis pleaded for supplies from a facility overwhelmed by wounded people, as Israeli airstrikes, artillery fire and fighting on the streets continued for a second day.

“There’s no space for more patients. There’s no space in the operating theatres. There is a lack of medical supplies, so we cannot save our patients,” Mohammed Zaqout, the director of Nasser hospital, told AFP.

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Six feared dead and 14 rescued after fishing boat sinks off Falkland Islands

Seven still missing as emergency teams scour south Atlantic after vessel experienced ‘uncontrolled flooding’

Fourteen fishermen stranded in lifeboats off the coast of the Falkland Islands have been saved in a dramatic rescue operation, but seven people remain missing and six others are believed dead.

Late on Tuesday, emergency teams were still scouring the choppy waters of the south Atlantic for survivors after the Argos Georgia, a Saint Helena-flagged fishing vessel experienced “uncontrolled flooding” on Monday evening.

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Wild sharks off Brazil coast test positive for cocaine, scientists say

Latest research shows how illegal drug consumption by humans is harming marine life

Wild sharks off the coast of Brazil have tested positive for cocaine, according to new study by Brazilian scientists, in the latest research to demonstrate how illegal drug consumption by humans is harming marine life.

According to a study entitled Cocaine Shark and published in the journal Science of the Total Environment, scientists dissected the bodies of 13 sharpnose sharks (Rhizoprionodon lalandii) caught in fishermen’s nets off a beach in Rio de Janeiro.

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Army chief says UK must double its lethality or be prepared for war in 2027

Gen Sir Roly Walker says west faces ‘axis of upheaval’ with increasing threats from Russia, China and Iran

Britain must be prepared to fight a war in three years’ time and double the lethality of its army as the separate threats of Russia, China, Iran and North Korea come to a head, the new chief of the army has warned.

Gen Sir Roly Walker, the chief of the general staff, told reporters that the west faced “an axis of upheaval” with increasing military ambition and that a conflict involving one of the countries could lead to “a significant detonation” in another theatre.

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Island off northern French coast imposes quota to tackle overtourism

The picturesque Ile-de-Bréhat follows major cities such as Amsterdam and Venice with measures to reduce visitors

A small, picturesque island off the north coast of Brittany has imposed a summer tourist quota in an effort to ensure visitors have a more enjoyable experience and its 400-odd permanent residents do not feel swamped.

From this week until 23 August, the number of people allowed on to Ile-de-Bréhat – excluding local people, second homeowners and workers – between 8.30am and 2.30pm must not exceed 4,700, said the island’s mayor, Olivier Carré.

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At least 229 people dead in Ethiopia after heavy rain causes mudslides

Officials say death toll could rise further as people use shovels and bare hands to search for survivors

At least 229 people have died in mudslides after heavy rain in south-western Ethiopia, in the deadliest such disaster recorded in the Horn of Africa country.

Officials in Kencho Shacha Gozdi district on Tuesday warned that the death toll could rise further as local people used shovels and their bare hands to search for survivors.

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Scores arrested in Uganda at banned rally inspired by Kenya protests

Police in Kampala stop and detain anti-corruption demonstrators after earlier round-up of opposition MPs

Scores of demonstrators have been arrested in the Uganda capital, Kampala, for taking part in a banned rally that has drawn inspiration from the youth-led anti-government protests that have roiled neighbouring Kenya for a month now.

Police stopped and detained people from among small groups of protesters who were marching and shouting anti-corruption slogans in different parts of the city.

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Spanish man sentenced to 18 years for letter bombs over Ukraine war

Pompeyo González Pascual, 76, sent explosive packages to Spain’s prime minister and US and Ukrainian embassies

A Spanish court has sentenced a man to 18 years in prison over letter bombs sent to Spain’s prime minister and the US and Ukrainian embassies in 2022.

Pompeyo González Pascual, 76, who opposed western support for Ukraine after Russia’s invasion, was found guilty of terrorism and manufacturing explosives by Spain’s top criminal court, the audiencia nacional.

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Bangladeshi students allege police torture after protests crackdown

More than 150 reported dead and thousands injured as peaceful demonstrations turn violent

Student activists in Bangladesh have alleged they were abducted and tortured during a violent police crackdown on the protests that have swept the country and led to the arrest of thousands of political opponents and government critics.

Nahid Islam, a Dhaka University student and one of the main organisers of the protest movement, which has been fighting against “discriminatory” quotas for government jobs, said he was picked up by police late last week, tortured and left unconscious on the side of the road.

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Palestinian factions including Hamas agree to form future unity government

Diplomatic coup for China as Beijing declaration sets out deal to unite across territories and prepare for elections

Leaders from Hamas, Fatah and other Palestinian factions have agreed after three days of talks in Beijing to form a national unity government at an unspecified point in the future, in a move that has bolstered China’s status as a global mediator, particularly in the Middle East.

The “Beijing declaration”, signed by 14 Palestinian factions, also represents a significant step forward in negotiations between the groups, although it is light on detail about how to actually achieve Palestinian unification.

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Suppliers to top essential oil brand left unpaid and afraid after abuse inquiry

Women who sorted frankincense told to change their story ‘or face consequences’ in doTERRA’s investigation

An investigation into the abuse of women working to supply frankincense to a leading US essential oils brand built on ethical sourcing has left workers unpaid and frightened, with some saying they were told to change their stories “or face the consequences”.

Last year doTERRA, which sells essential oils and other wellness products to a mostly female customer base, launched an investigation into its frankincense supplier in Somaliland after reporting by the Fuller Project uncovered allegations of serious abuses, including sexual harassment and assault. Many women hired as frankincense sorters said they were routinely underpaid and faced harsh working conditions that had impacted their health.

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Trump team makes formal complaint about Biden-Harris campaign funds; Sanders denounces Netanyahu visit – live

Ex-president’s campaign claims money going to Harris is ‘$91.5m heist’; senator makes impassioned speech on eve of Israeli leader’s visit

Harris will not preside over the chamber when when Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu addresses a joint meeting of Congress on Wednesday.

According to an aide, she will meet with Netanyahu at the White House at some point this week. On Wednesday, Harris is scheduled to be in Indianapolis to moderate a conversation with the Zeta Phi Beta sorority, Inc, one of the nation’s oldest Black sororities.

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