Plans for how health system would deal with surge revealed as country records 71 new cases

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New Zealand is preparing to face up to 5,300 cases of Covid-19 a week in Auckland and the neighbouring region of Northland alone next year, even with a vaccination rate of 90%, according to modelling from the Ministry of Health.

The minister of health, Andrew Little revealed the plan for how the health system could manage a surge in cases after the current vaccination drive, as the country recorded 71 new cases on Thursday.

Allowing the virus to become endemic would mean the regular closure of schools and businesses and thousands of deaths each year

As New Zealand switches from elimination to suppression, those who argue that Covid-19 will become endemic and part of our lives either do not understand or ignore what this would actually mean.

Elimination has always been a tricky word because it implies eradication. But we have only ever eradicated one human disease – smallpox – and are close with several others.

Without a dramatic change in New Zealand’s vaccination rates, Covid-19 risks becoming a disease for brown people

And so with that, a confusing 20-minute monologue in the Beehive theatrette, New Zealand’s virus-beating elimination strategy is over. As the Delta variant’s “tentacles”, to borrow the prime minister’s description, creep past the Auckland border, potentially wrapping themselves around parts of the Waikato, the government will no longer aim to cut the monster off at its head with tough alert level four restrictions. Instead public health officials will move to a suppression strategy aiming “to contain and control the virus” while we vaccinate our way out of the pandemic. At its simplest, Jacinda Ardern’s message from the threatrette was vaccinate, vaccinate, vaccinate.

For 18 months New Zealanders were living life as if there were no pandemic. We were gathering outdoors and indoors in the thousands, mask mandates were literally a foreign concept, and business and public services were operating more or less as normal. We were watching governments that let the virus rip with a good dose of horror and, if we’re honest, a modest dose of smugness. And so yesterday’s announcement – that the virus will remain resident in this country – feels like a form of whiplash. Only two weeks ago the prime minister stood in that familiar theatrette and told the country returning to zero cases was still the goal.

Concerns about the toll a suppression approach may take have dampened excitement about loosened restrictions

New Zealanders are grieving for the end of the country’s Covid elimination strategy and anxious about what the future holds, a day after prime minister Jacinda Ardern announced the country would switch to a suppression approach.

“It’s kind of a grieving for what we are losing,” microbiologist Siouxsie Wiles, one of the pandemic response’s most prominent science communicators, said. “We are very clearly losing alert level one, and the freedoms and privileges that come with [it].”

As Auckland grapples with Delta outbreak, opposition leaders dare to break with Jacinda Ardern on pandemic plan

“Things have changed,” Judith Collins declares, sitting in her Beehive government office. New Zealand’s National party leader is fresh off launching her alternative pandemic response plan, marking the first time the main opposition has significantly diverged from prime minister Jacinda Ardern’s largely popular elimination strategy.

The arrival of the Delta variant in New Zealand two months ago, causing an outbreak that the government is struggling to stamp out, has shown that elimination is “clearly not working,” Collins says.

45 new positives in a day as National party lays out coronavirus plan for ‘vigorous suppression’ instead of elimination

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New Zealand’s daily Covid cases have jumped sharply to 45 – more than five times the previous day’s number. The rise comes after several days of about 12 cases a day, and around a week after the Auckland region lifted its strictest lockdown restrictions.

“This is a big number. It’s a sobering number. I don’t think anybody who’s involved in this process would be celebrating a number like the one we’re seeing today,” said the Covid-19 response minister, Chris Hipkins.

The country’s pandemic policy has left many of its overseas citizens feeling alienated – a failure to amend election law could cement that

What makes a New Zealander outside of New Zealand? An accent (which can be lost), or a passport (which can be bought)? Is it a set of irrevocable rights, an identity that anyone can claim and no one can question? Or does it depend on how often you go back?

What if you don’t know when you’ll be home again?

Frustration in Auckland has been rising and the cabinet would have been aware it risked losing the crowd

One of the many quotes attributed to Napoleon Bonaparte that he probably never said, was that he preferred his generals lucky, rather than able. When it’s a matter of life and death, “give me lucky generals,” he’s reputed to have pleaded.

It’s a view that New Zealand prime minister Jacinda Ardern echoed this week when she announced that Auckland – home to about a third of all New Zealanders – was moving out of the strict level 4 lockdown to level 3. Replace “generals” with “policy” and you get a pretty accurate sense of cabinet’s big call this week. In a country that has essentially tattooed “go hard, go early” on to one collective arm and “stay home, stay safe” on to the other, the decision to let about 300,000 people go back to their places of work when Auckland’s still getting 15-30 cases a day in the community is a turning point in the government’s approach to this pandemic. Both in public health terms and politically. A year ago, public opinion wouldn’t have worn such faith in “lucky generals”. But that was a year ago.