With western tanks yet to arrive, invaders may be in a better position in early spring than Ukrainian defenders

• Russia-Ukraine war – latest news updates

A fresh Russian assault around the southern Donbas town of Vuhledar, which began towards the end of January, demonstrates that Moscow’s forces are becoming more capable before a critical – and increasingly uncertain – spring period.

Russian forces have not yet made significant gains across the open fields of the region, where the Ukrainians have been dug in for months. But in parallel with the seemingly never-ending Wagner Group-led assault on Bakhmut, 70 miles to the north-east, it shows the invaders trying to push forward at a second point.

Mateusz Morawiecki would supply F-16 fighters if decision were taken with Nato allies. This live blog is closed

• Russia-Ukraine war at a glance

The Ministry of Defence says Russia’s role as a “reliable arms exporter” is “highly likely” being undermined by its invasion of Ukraine and international sanctions.

In the latest intelligence update published on Thursday morning, the MoD said prior to the invasion Russia’s share of the international arms market was declining.

Ben Wallace says UK has not made a ‘solid decision’ not to send fighter jets but Downing Street appeared to rule it out as not ‘practical’. This live blog is closed

• Russia-Ukraine war at a glance

Russian state-owned news agency Tass is reporting that Col Vitaly Kiselev, who it terms a military expert from the Luhansk People’s Republic (LPR), has said that pro-Russian forces have surrounded the fiercely contested city of Bakhmut on three sides.

It quotes him saying “Bakhmut has practically been ‘embraced’ from three sides, an intensive knocking out of the enemy is underway.”

Germany says supplying fighter jets to Ukraine is a step too far for west

• Russia-Ukraine war – latest news updates

The F-16 Fighting Falcon is a lightweight fighter aircraft that was initially designed as long ago as the 1970s. It first went into service in 1979, and was used heavily by the US airforce in both Iraq wars and in Afghanistan.

Western official at military briefing says similar number of people killed and wounded on each side

• What we know on day 342 of the invasion

Ukraine’s state broadcaster Suspilne offers this summary of events of the last 24 hours in its Telegram bulletin today. It writes:

At night, Russian troops shelled the Nikopol district of the Dnipropetrovsk region. Three private houses, farm buildings and a power line were damaged. There are no injured.

Over the past day, three people were injured in Donetsk region due to Russian shelling. In the Zaporizhzhia region, 14 settlements were shelled during the day, seven in the Kherson region.

In the last three days, Russia has likely developed its probing attacks around the towns of Pavlivka and Vuhledar into a more concerted assault. Russian commanders are likely aiming to develop a new axis of advance into Ukrainian-held Donetsk Oblast, and to divert Ukrainian forces from the heavily contested Bakhmut sector. There is a realistic possibility that Russia will continue to make local gains in the sector. However, it is unlikely that Russia has sufficient uncommitted troops in the area to achieve an operationally significant breakthrough.