Russia-Ukraine war live: Ukraine ‘expects possible major Russian offensive this month’ – as it happened

Oleksii Reznikov insists Kyiv has the ability to hold back Russian forces if new push comes for anniversary of start of invasion

Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, has revoked the citizenship of several former influential politicians.

“Today, I signed the relevant documents to take another step to protect and cleanse our state from those on the side of the aggressor,” Zelenskiy said during his nightly video address on Saturday.

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Russia-Ukraine war at a glance: what we know on day 347 of the invasion

Arming Ukraine is swiftest path to peace, says UK foreign secretary; Ukraine warns of renewed Russian offensive this month

Helping to arm Ukraine so it can defend itself against Russia is the swiftest path to achieving peace, the British foreign secretary, James Cleverly, has said, writing in the Times of Malta before a visit on Tuesday to the Mediterranean island.

Ukraine will not use longer-range weapons pledged by the United States to hit Russian territory and will only target Russian units in occupied Ukrainian territory, said Ukraine’s defence minister, Oleksii Reznikov.

Ukraine expects a possible major Russian offensive this month, but Kyiv has the reserves to hold back Moscow’s forces even though not all the west’s latest military supplies will have arrived in time, Reznikov said.

Germany’s prosecutor general, Peter Frank, told the Welt am Sonntag newspaper his office had collected “hundreds” of pieces of evidence showing war crimes by Russian forces in Ukraine.

The former Israeli prime minister Naftali Bennett said Vladimir Putin made him a promise he would not try to kill Volodymyr Zelenskiy, during a trip to Moscow shortly after Russia invaded Ukraine last year.

The head of Russia’s private Wagner militia said fierce fighting was continuing in the northern parts of the Ukrainian city of Bakhmut, which has been the focus of Russian forces’ attention for weeks. Yevgeniy Prigozhin rejected reports in the Russian media that Ukrainian troops were abandoning Bakhmut, saying: “Fierce battles are going on in the northern quarters for every street, every house, every stairwell.”

The situation on the frontlines in the east of the country was getting tougher and Russia was throwing more and more troops into battle, the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, said on Saturday.

The embattled eastern Ukrainian town of Bakhmut has become “increasingly isolated”, according to the latest assessment by the UK Ministry of Defence. “Over the last week, Russia has continued to make small advances in its attempt to encircle the Donbas town of Bakhmut,” the MoD wrote on Twitter on Sunday.

Ukrainian forces remained in control of the village of Bilohorivka, the Luhansk region governor, Serhiy Haidai, said, adding that the situation there was tense but under control.

Zelenskiy has revoked the citizenship of several former influential politicians. He would not list the names but said they had dual Russian citizenship.

The German chancellor, Olaf Scholz, said Putin “has not made any threats against me or Germany” in his telephone conversations with the Russian president, Bild am Sonntag reported. The former British prime minister Boris Johnson, speaking to the BBC for a documentary broadcast last week, said the Russian leader had threatened him with a missile strike that would “only take a minute”. The Kremlin said Johnson was lying.

Price caps on Russian oil probably hit Moscow’s revenues from oil and gas exports by nearly 30% in January, or about $8bn (£7bn), compared with a year before, the International Energy Agency (IEA) chief, Fatih Birol, said on Sunday.

The European Union took another big step toward cutting its energy ties with Russia. In a move that took effect from Sunday, the 27-country bloc banned Russian refined oil products such as diesel fuel and joined the US and other allies in imposing a price cap on sales to non-western countries.

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Russia-Ukraine war: more than 100 soldiers returned to Kyiv in prisoner exchange

Announcement from Ukrainian president’s office follows Russian statement on 63 of its own soldiers

The head of Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s office, Andriy Yermak, has said that Ukraine has got 116 soldiers back as part of a prisoner of war swap.

Earlier on Saturday, Russia said it had got 63 PoWs back in an exchange.

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Germany approves Leopard 1 battle tank exports to Ukraine

Package of 29 older tanks could be sent to help fight Russia as soon as refurbishments done, reports say

Germany has approved the export of older Leopard 1 battle tanks, which would add to the raft of fighting vehicles Berlin promised last week it would send to Ukraine.

A spokesperson said on Friday that Olaf Scholz’s government had granted an export licence for the German-made tanks first produced in the 1960s and replaced within Germany’s own military by Leopard 2 tanks in 2003. Further details would be provided in the coming days and weeks, they said.

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New US military package includes rocket-powered bomb to double Ukraine’s strike range – as it happened

New US $2.175bn military aid also includes precision-guided rockets and HAWK air defence firing units. This live blog is now closed

Maria Zakharova, the Russian foreign ministry spokesperson, has posted to Telegram, responding to the Ukrainian president’s comments about the slowing down of western sanctions on Russia.

She quotes the media saying “Zelenskiy complained that the pace of sanctions in Europe has slowed down, and Russia has become faster to adapt to restrictions” and goes on to write:

Western Europe, falling into recession, having long lost the habit of survival, is sinking, with Ukraine tied to its feet.

At night, the Russian military attacked the Barvinkove community in the Kharkiv region. A private house was destroyed and a 70-year-old man was rescued from the rubble. Two men died.

Also at night, the Russian army shelled Kherson. They hit one of the shopping centres, a fire started there. People were not injured. Nikopol in the Dnipropetrovsk region also came under fire. There are no dead or injured.

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Former Russian soldier reveals he saw Ukrainian prisoners of war tortured

Konstantin Yefremov escaped Russia after serving three months as a lieutenant in Zaporizhzhia oblast

A senior Russian lieutenant who fled after serving in Ukraine has described how his country’s troops tortured prisoners of war and threatened some with rape.

Konstantin Yefremov left Russia in December after spending three months in the parts of the southern Zaporizhzhia oblast that were occupied in Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine.

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EU pledges to double military aid programme for Ukraine

EU to train an extra 15,000 soldiers and prepare new sanctions against Russia

The EU has pledged to double a military aid programme for Ukraine by training an extra 15,000 soldiers as part of a blizzard of announcements aimed at showing that it will “stand by Ukraine for the long-haul”.

Speaking at the start of a two-day trip to Kyiv, the European Commission president, Ursula von der Leyen, reiterated that the EU aimed to have a tenth package of sanctions against Russia in place by 24 February, the first anniversary of the invasion ordered by Vladimir Putin.

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Russian forces could regain initiative as Ukraine war drags on

With western tanks yet to arrive, invaders may be in a better position in early spring than Ukrainian defenders

A fresh Russian assault around the southern Donbas town of Vuhledar, which began towards the end of January, demonstrates that Moscow’s forces are becoming more capable before a critical – and increasingly uncertain – spring period.

Russian forces have not yet made significant gains across the open fields of the region, where the Ukrainians have been dug in for months. But in parallel with the seemingly never-ending Wagner Group-led assault on Bakhmut, 70 miles to the north-east, it shows the invaders trying to push forward at a second point.

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Poland open to sending fighter jets to Kyiv, says PM, if part of Nato decision – as it happened

Mateusz Morawiecki would supply F-16 fighters if decision were taken with Nato allies. This live blog is closed

The Ministry of Defence says Russia’s role as a “reliable arms exporter” is “highly likely” being undermined by its invasion of Ukraine and international sanctions.

In the latest intelligence update published on Thursday morning, the MoD said prior to the invasion Russia’s share of the international arms market was declining.

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Calls for bigger windfall tax after Shell makes ‘obscene’ $40bn profit

Sunak government under pressure after gas prices fuel ‘outrageous’ doubling of profits at Anglo-Dutch group

The government is under pressure to rethink its windfall tax on energy companies after Shell reported one of the largest profits in UK corporate history, with the surge in energy prices sparked by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine pushing the oil company’s annual takings to $40bn (£32bn).

Opposition parties and trade unions described Shell’s bonanza, the biggest in its 115 year history, as “outrageous” and accused Rishi Sunak of letting fossil fuel companies “off the hook”.

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Wagner mercenaries sustain losses in fight for Central African Republic gold

Russian fighters clash with rebels as Kremlin tries to extend power in mineral rich country

Russian mercenaries from the Wagner Group have sustained heavy casualties in a new surge of fighting between government troops and rebels over the control of lucrative goldmines in Central African Republic (CAR).

The clashes come amid increasing instability in the anarchic, resource-rich country, which in recent years has become one of Russia’s main hubs of influence in sub-Saharan Africa.

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Russia planning major offensive to mark first anniversary of war: Ukraine defence minister

Oleksii Reznikov said that as many as 500,000 troops may have been mobilised by Russia as he calls for more weapons to be sent to Ukraine

Russia is planning a major offensive to coincide with the one-year anniversary of the war in Ukraine on 24 February, according to the country’s defence minister, Oleksii Reznikov.

Speaking to French media, Reznikov warned that Russia would call on a large contingent of mobilised troops. Referring to Russia’s general mobilisation of 300,000 conscripted soldiers in September last year, he claimed that numbers at the border suggest the true size could be closer to 500,000.

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Sending British fighter jets to Ukraine not right approach ‘for now’, says UK defence secretary – as it happened

Ben Wallace says UK has not made a ‘solid decision’ not to send fighter jets but Downing Street appeared to rule it out as not ‘practical’. This live blog is closed

Russian state-owned news agency Tass is reporting that Col Vitaly Kiselev, who it terms a military expert from the Luhansk People’s Republic (LPR), has said that pro-Russian forces have surrounded the fiercely contested city of Bakhmut on three sides.

It quotes him saying “Bakhmut has practically been ‘embraced’ from three sides, an intensive knocking out of the enemy is underway.”

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How would F-16 fighter jets aid Ukraine against Russia?

Germany says supplying fighter jets to Ukraine is a step too far for west

The F-16 Fighting Falcon is a lightweight fighter aircraft that was initially designed as long ago as the 1970s. It first went into service in 1979, and was used heavily by the US airforce in both Iraq wars and in Afghanistan.

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Russia-Ukraine war live: France to send extra howitzers; military casualties from both sides ‘total 200,000’

Western official at military briefing says similar number of people killed and wounded on each side

Ukraine’s state broadcaster Suspilne offers this summary of events of the last 24 hours in its Telegram bulletin today. It writes:

At night, Russian troops shelled the Nikopol district of the Dnipropetrovsk region. Three private houses, farm buildings and a power line were damaged. There are no injured.

Over the past day, three people were injured in Donetsk region due to Russian shelling. In the Zaporizhzhia region, 14 settlements were shelled during the day, seven in the Kherson region.

In the last three days, Russia has likely developed its probing attacks around the towns of Pavlivka and Vuhledar into a more concerted assault. Russian commanders are likely aiming to develop a new axis of advance into Ukrainian-held Donetsk Oblast, and to divert Ukrainian forces from the heavily contested Bakhmut sector. There is a realistic possibility that Russia will continue to make local gains in the sector. However, it is unlikely that Russia has sufficient uncommitted troops in the area to achieve an operationally significant breakthrough.

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No 10 warns public of ‘significant disruption’ tomorrow because of mass strikes – as it happened

This blog has now closed, you can read more on this story here

Jacob Rees-Mogg, the former business secretary, was not exactly on message in his Sky News interview with Kay Burley this morning. As well as implying that he thought the bullying inquiry into Dominic Raab was a mistake (see 10.37am), he made at least three other comments that suggest Rishi Sunak does not have the enthusiastic support of all his backbenchers.

Rees-Mogg said that Sunak was performing “perfectly competently” as PM. Asked how he was doing, Rees-Mogg replied: “I think he’s doing perfectly competently.” When Burley put it to him that that was not much of an endorsement, Rees-Mogg went on: “I made no bones about the fact I thought Boris Johnson was a better prime minister and I wanted him to remain.”

Rees-Mogg criticised the government for stalling the Northern Ireland protocol bill. The bill, which is popular with hardline Brexiters but widely seen as contrary to international law, because it would allow the UK to unilaterally ignore some of the provisions in the protocol treaty, passed through the Commons when Boris Johnson was PM. But it is stuck in the Lords, where it has not been debated since October and where a date has not been set for its report stage. Sunak has shelved it because he wants to negotiate a compromise on the protocol with the EU, and passing the bill would make agreement much harder. But Rees-Mogg said the government should pass it. He said:

The government has just got to get on with it. There’s a bill that has been through the House of Commons that is waiting its report stage in the House of Lords and I don’t understand why the government hasn’t brought it forward.

He renewed his criticism of the strikes (minimum service levels) bill. When MPs debated it last night, Rees-Mogg said he agreed with Labour criticisms of the Henry VIII powers in the bill.

The government doesn’t know what changes it will have to make once this bill is passed. Under clause 3, the secretary of state would be able to make regulations that “amend, repeal or revoke provision made by or under primary legislation passed before this act or later in the same session of parliament as this act”. This is a supercharged Henry VIII clause. Why should MPs or peers pay any attention to any related legislation that may be brought before them later in this session when they know that, unless they object, a secretary of state may simply amend, repeal or revoke it?

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Poland could supply Ukraine with F-16 fighters, Kyiv suggests

Ukraine official reports ‘positive signals’ from Warsaw – but Poland stresses it will only act in consultation with Nato allies

Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s most senior adviser has suggested Poland is willing to supply Ukraine with F-16 fighters as Ukraine’s lobbying for the combat jets steps up only a few days after Germany and the US agreed to send over their tanks.

Andriy Yermak said Ukraine had had “positive signals” from Warsaw in a Telegram posting, although Poland’s prime minister was careful to stress his own country would only act in consultation with Nato allies.

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Russia-Ukraine war live: Kremlin warns west that sending more weapons to Kyiv will lead to ‘significant escalation’ – as it happened

Kremlin spokesperson says supply of arms to Kyiv from west has led to Nato becoming more directly involved in the conflict

Here are some of the latest images to be sent to us from Ukraine over the news wires.

This is Martin Belam in London taking over the live blog from my colleague Samantha Lock in Sydney. You can email me at martin.belam@theguardian.com

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