The world in 2021 – how global politics will change this year

Donald Trump’s departure will alter the face of geopolitics. The climate crisis and Covid response will affect all nations – while others face very particular challenges. Observer correspondents examine the 12 months ahead

A potent mix of hope and fear accompanies the start of 2021 in most of the world. Scientists have created several vaccines for a disease that didn’t even have a name this time last year. But many countries, including the UK and the US, are still stumbling through the deadliest period of the pandemic.

The shadow of Covid will not begin to lift, even in richer countries, for months. Britain was the first to approve a vaccine and has secured extensive supplies, yet Boris Johnson’s suggestion that life might be returning to normal by Easter is widely seen as optimistic. Other countries, particularly in the south, face a long wait to get vaccines, and help paying for them. The rebuilding of economies shattered by Covid everywhere will be slow; even countries that managed to contain it have taken a hit, from Vietnam to New Zealand.

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Wuhan a year after Covid struck: ‘Everyone wants to reset 2020’

Wang Fan is a young craft beer brewer in Wuhan. When his city became the first in the world to enter lockdown, he volunteered to help support other residents, and documented the sudden and strict pandemic rules over that harsh winter. One year later, Wuhan is getting back to normality, and Wang Fan is even releasing a special beer to mark the recovery. He and other young people reflect on trying to get their lives back on track while much of the rest of the world struggles with the virus

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Hong Kong activist Jimmy Lai returned to jail until at least February

Court grants prosecutors’ request to appeal against bail order on media mogul

The Hong Kong media mogul and pro-democracy activist Jimmy Lai has been returned to jail after the city’s highest court ruled in favour of prosecutors’ request for leave to appeal against his already highly restrictive bail order.

The decision will keep the 76-year-old in jail until at least February, even though he has not been accused of a violent crime and is not considered a flight risk.

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Indonesian fisher finds drone submarine on possible covert mission

Navy seizes UUV, likely a Chinese Sea Wing, that experts say could be used to plot routes for military subs

An Indonesian fisher has found what experts say is likely to be a Chinese submarine drone in waters on a strategic maritime route from the South China Sea to Australia.

According to Indonesian media the unmanned underwater vehicle (UUV) was found on 20 December near Selayar Island in South Sulawesi. Six days later it was handed to police and then transferred to the Indonesian military.

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Wuhan one year on: normality returns, but pain over handling of Covid endures

As China’s leadership celebrates national triumph over virus, some residents want an investigation into the start of the pandemic

Jianghan Road in Wuhan throngs with shoppers and strollers bundled up against the late December freeze. Bells ring out on the hour from the landmark Hankou Customs House where the road terminates near the wide banks of the Yangtze River.

Restaurants along the city’s main pedestrian thoroughfare are packed, even on an icy weekday night, and resound with loud conversation.

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‘Vaccine diplomacy’ sees Egypt roll out Chinese coronavirus jab

A lack of trial data transparency from China has raised concerns, but the country is confidently pushing ahead

When Egypt’s health ministry sent out an invitation to doctors to be vaccinated against Covid-19, they neglected to make clear it was a clinical trial.

Instead, it assured them that two Covid-19 vaccines developed by China’s National Biotec Group, part of a state-owned conglomerate known as Sinopharm, had no side-effects and that “the minister of health was vaccinated today, and orders were issued to vaccinate all doctors and workers who wish to be vaccinated”.

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Hong Kong: China jails 10 who fled by boat to Taiwan for up to three years

Group’s trial on the mainland lasted just one day and was held with few public witnesses

Ten people who tried to flee Hong Kong for Taiwan have been sentenced in a Chinese court to up to three years in jail, while two minors will be returned home without charge.

On Wednesday the Yantian people’s court ordered the group to serve varying sentences of between seven months and three years in jail. Of the two people charged with organising the illegal border crossing, one was sentenced to three years and fined RMB20,000 (£2,260), and the other to two years and fined RMB15,000.

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Pressure on Turkey to protect Uighurs as China ratifies extradition treaty

Ankara has long welcomed Uighur and Turkic Muslims fleeing China but human rights groups fear the treaty will endanger them

Beijing has ratified an extradition treaty with Turkey that human rights groups warn could endanger Uighur families and activists fleeing persecution by Chinese authorities if it is adopted by Ankara.

The treaty, first signed in 2017, was formalised on the weekend at the national people’s congress, with state media saying it would be used for counter-terrorism purposes. Facing strong opposition within its parliament, Turkey’s government has not yet ratified the deal, and critics have urged the government to abandon it and prevent the treaty from “becoming an instrument of persecution”.

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Australia insists WHO inquiry into Covid origin must be robust, despite China tensions

Australia, whose early call for inquiry sparked furious Chinese response, says it expects ‘robust, independent and comprehensive’ report

Australia is pushing to ensure the global inquiry it helped trigger into the early handling of the Covid-19 pandemic doesn’t pull any punches – a move that has the potential to risk further recriminations from China.

Amid scepticism among several government backbenchers that the inquiry will fully address Chinese authorities’ early missteps and reporting delays, Australia is using its final months on a top World Health Organization board to press for the investigation to remain robust and independent.

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Game of Thrones video game tycoon dies in suspected poisoning

Police in China detain colleague of Yoozoo Games founder Lin Qi on suspicion of involvement in death

Shanghai police have detained a man in relation to the suspected poisoning death of the wealthy founder of a video games company.

Lin Qi, 39, died on Christmas Day, eight days after he was taken to hospital with “acute symptoms of illness”, according to his company, Yoozoo Games Co, known for the Game of Thrones: Winter is Coming strategy game and as the producer of a forthcoming Netflix adaptation of the science fiction hit The Three-Body Problem.

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Wuhan Covid citizen journalist jailed for four years in China’s Christmas crackdown

Prosecution of 10 Hong Kongers detained in mainland China after allegedly attempting to flee to Taiwan also began on Monday

Zhang Zhan, a 37-year-old former lawyer and citizen journalist who was arrested in May while reporting from Wuhan, has been sentenced to four years in jail.

Zhang was arrested for “picking quarrels and provoking trouble” – an accusation commonly used against dissidents, activists and journalists – with her video and blog reports from the Wuhan lockdown. Last month she was charged with disseminating false information.

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Liu Xiaoming to quit his role of Chinese ambassador to Britain

Critic of UK decision to ban Huawei from 5G networks to be replaced by China’s vice-foreign minister

China’s long-serving envoy to Britain, Liu Xiaoming, a staunch defender of closer UK-China economic ties and the imposition of new security laws in Hong Kong, is standing down, marking the end of an era in relations between the two countries that hit a high in 2015 but has since worsened markedly.

He is being replaced by his country’s vice-foreign minister, Zheng Zeguang, a former Cardiff University law student once tipped to become China’s ambassador to the US, and still seen as a candidate for that post in a couple of years’ time.

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China to overtake US as world’s biggest economy by 2028, report predicts

Centre for Economics and Business Research says it expects this to happen half a decade sooner than it forecast a year ago

China will overtake the US as the world’s biggest economy before the end of the decade after outperforming its rival during the global Covid-19 pandemic, according to a report.

The Centre for Economics and Business Research said that it nowexpected the value of China’s economy when measured in dollars to exceed that of the US by 2028, half a decade sooner than it expected a year ago.

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Coronavirus global report: Christmas curtailed as UK arrivals face tougher measures

Pope addresses fewer than 200 people in St Peter’s; China and US take action against UK amid concerns about new variant; South Korea reports daily case record

The coronavirus pandemic cast a pall over Christmas celebrations worldwide, with the pope holding a reduced St Peter’s mass, and further restrictions imposed on arrivals from the UK and South Africa amid concerns about potentially more transmissible variants of the virus.

China said it would halt UK flight arrivals indefinitely, deciding to follow the example of dozens of countries that introduced bans this week following the emergence of a new mutation in the virus. There are currently eight weekly flights between mainland China and Britain, including two by British Airways.

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China helps evacuate sick Australian from Antarctica in five-day mission

Ships, helicopters and planes traverse thousands of kilometres of icy continent in complex, multinational medical evacuation

Australia and China have collaborated on a mission to medically evacuate an Australian expeditioner from Antarctica with help from the United States.

The operation took five days, used ships, helicopters and planes, and covered thousands of kilometres of the icy continent.

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More than 50 Australian coal ships remain stranded off China’s coast despite power blackouts

Some 53 vessels have been waiting offshore for more than four weeks while coal ships from other countries have delivered their loads

More than 50 Australian coal ships are still stranded off China’s coast, held up by a Chinese government import ban, despite the country facing coal shortages and one of its worst power blackouts in years.

China has rejected suggestions that its October ban on Australian coal has contributed to the coal shortage but the ban has been linked to higher domestic prices. Analysts have said that under the current circumstances any incoming coal would help.

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China to bring in law against food waste with fines for promoting overeating

Inspired by Xi Jinping’s ‘operation empty plate’, new law means restaurants will be able to charge patrons for leaving leftovers

Xi Jinping’s war on waste is set to be enshrined in law, with the submission of draft legislation to China’s highest legal committee recommending large fines for businesses that enable or promote wasting food.

In August the Chinese leader said the amount of food wasted nationally was shocking and distressing, declaring in a speech that: “waste is shameful and thriftiness is honourable”.

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Japan and South Korea scramble jets to track Russian and Chinese bomber patrol

Joint Russia and China patrol over the Pacific signals stronger military ties between Moscow and Beijing

Japan and South Korea have scrambled fighter jets to track Russian and Chinese bombers which flown a joint patrol mission over the western Pacific in a show of increasingly close military ties between Moscow and Beijing.

The Russian military said a pair of its Tu-95 strategic bombers and four Chinese H-6K bombers flew over the Sea of Japan and the East China Sea on Tuesday.

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Russia and China fly joint bomber patrol over the Pacific

Mission involving two Russian and four Chinese aircraft signals stronger military ties between Moscow and Beijing

Russian and Chinese bombers have flown a joint patrol mission over the western Pacific in a show of increasingly close military ties between Moscow and Beijing.

The Russian military said a pair of its Tu-95 strategic bombers and four Chinese H-6K bombers flew over the Sea of Japan and the East China Sea on Tuesday.

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EU foreign ministers pave way for revival of Iran nuclear deal

Step would allow Tehran to come back into compliance with deal, so long as US sanctions were lifted

EU foreign ministers have agreed not to set fresh preconditions on a revival of the Iran nuclear deal, believing Tehran and Washington should be able to come back into full compliance with the agreement without at this stage needing to accept to extend or strengthen it.

The step removes one of the potential roadblocks to Iran coming back into compliance with the existing deal, so long as the US lifts its sanctions and complies with UN resolutions.

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