Trump victory not a mandate for radical change, top election forecaster says

US expert who predicted outcome says models showed voters were unhappy with economy but did not seek sweeping transformation

Despite Donald Trump’s decisive victory in the presidential election, a political scientist who developed a model that correctly predicted his sweep of battleground states warns that voters have not necessarily given the president-elect a mandate to make radical changes.

In a paper released with little fanfare three weeks before the vote, Cornell University professor of government Peter Enns and his co-authors accurately forecast that Trump would win all seven swing states, based on a model they built that uses state-level presidential approval ratings and indicators of economic health.

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France’s U-turn on Netanyahu’s ICC immunity criticised as a ‘lie’ and ‘double standard’ – Middle East Eye

  1. France's U-turn on Netanyahu's ICC immunity criticised as a 'lie' and 'double standard'  Middle East Eye
  2. Dutch see path forward for Netanyahu visit amid ICC hurdles  The Jerusalem Post
  3. The International Criminal Court’s Folly  The Atlantic
  4. With our leaders wanted for war crimes, Israelis must take drastic measures to stay sane | Opinion  Haaretz
  5. International Criminal Court's decisions must be respected, EU's Borrell says  Reuters
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New Zealand Covid inquiry finds vaccine mandates were ‘reasonable’

Commissioners also say the vaccine requirements eroded public trust and call for investment to plan for the next pandemic

A royal commission into New Zealand’s Covid response has largely accepted the need for vaccine mandates, while accepting they harmed a substantial minority of New Zealanders.

The first of two inquiry reports on the pandemic was released on Thursday and also called for broad investment to plan for the next pandemic.

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Russian central bank takes desperate stand to halt collapsing ruble and fierce inflation – Yahoo Finance

  1. Russian central bank takes desperate stand to halt collapsing ruble and fierce inflation  Yahoo Finance
  2. Russia tries to stem panic over the plummeting ruble, as the central bank is forced to intervene  CNBC
  3. 'Panic' in Russia as rouble slips to symbolic mark against US dollar  Sky News
  4. Business - Putin says there's no need to panic over Russia's plummeting ruble  FRANCE 24 English
  5. Ruble’s Plunge Pressures Bank of Russia for Steeper Rate Hike  Bloomberg
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Israel says air force struck Hezbollah facility in southern Lebanon; curfews announced amid uneasy ceasefire – as it happened

This blog is now closed, you can read more on this story here

My colleagues, Bethan McKernan in Jerusalem, and Oliver Holmes have produced this explainer on what the terms of the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire are. You can read more at the link below:

Here is a video report on families returning to homes in Lebanon and northern Israel after the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire took effect:

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Assisted dying bill will not be adopted as government bill if it passes vote

Departments ready to work on assessment of its workability as critics say it is proceeding the ‘wrong way round’

Civil servants and ministers will begin work on implementing the assisted dying bill if it passes its first stage in parliament on Friday, but the Guardian understands it will not be adopted as a government bill.

MPs will have a free vote on the bill to legalise assisted dying in the case of terminal illness. It is a private member’s bill, brought by the Labour MP Kim Leadbeater, which means the government is technically neutral on the issue.

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Romanian court orders recount of presidential election’s first-round votes

Recheck of result of the first round, won by Călin Georgescu with Elena Lasconi second, likely to take days

Romania’s constitutional court has ordered a recount of all first-round votes to rule out a suspicion of fraud in the country’s presidential election, which was won in a major upset by a little-known far-right candidate.

The court said on Thursday it had decided unanimously to order Romania’s central electoral bureau to “recheck and recount all valid and invalid ballots” cast in Sunday’s election, won by the Moscow-friendly ultranationalist Călin Georgescu.

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Keir Starmer gives speech on migration after record figures for 2023 revealed – UK politics live

Prime minister holds press conference to announce plans as ONS announces net migration figures

Here is a chart from the ONS report illustrating the latest figures.

Here is the PA Media story on the figures.

Net migration to the UK hit a higher than previously thought record of 906,000 in the year to June 2023, revised official estimates show.

The measure for the difference between the number of people arriving and leaving the country then dropped by 20% in the latest period, the 12 months to June 2024, and now stands at 728,000.

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Putin threatens to target Kyiv ‘decision-making centres’ with new missile after US and UK-made weapons used in Russia – as it happened

This live blog is closed

Reuters has a quick snap that there are power cuts in Ukraine’s southern region of Mykolaiv as a result of Russia’s missile attack. It cited regional governor Vitaliy Kim.

Zhitomir and Chernihiv region have ended their air alarms in Ukraine.

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Starmer: record net migration shows Tories ran ‘open borders experiment’

PM says previous government ‘deliberately liberalised’ post-Brexit immigration as he announces deal with Iraq

Keir Starmer has accused the Conservatives of running an “open borders experiment” after new figures showed that net migration to the UK hit a record high of nearly 1 million in a period covering Boris Johnson and Rishi Sunak’s administrations.

The prime minister announced a deal with Iraq to tackle people-smugglers and a white paper to overhaul the visa system, before demanding “an explanation” from Kemi Badenoch for her party’s decision to “deliberately liberalise immigration” after the Brexit vote.

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Two police officers served misconduct notices after death of girl on M5

Tamzin Hall, 17, was hit by car after fleeing police vehicle which had pulled over on M5 in Somerset

Two police officers have been served with misconduct notices after the death of a 17-year-old girl who fled a police car and was killed by a vehicle on the M5 in Somerset, the Independent Office for Police Conduct has said.

Tamzin Hall was being taken to custody on the night of 11 November when officers pulled over for “safety reasons”, the IOPC said, adding that she had been handcuffed with her hands in front of her and had an officer sitting beside her.

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‘People-first’ transport in English towns could be integrated by apps

Louise Haigh plans to focus on poorer areas, healthy methods and ability to ‘tap in and tap out seamlessly’

Transport across towns and cities could become integrated using dedicated apps, with investment focused on poorer areas and healthier methods, as part of what ministers are calling a “people-first” revolution in local travel.

Louise Haigh, the transport secretary, described the plans in a speech in Leeds as “a revolution to wrestle back power over transport”. She said powers would be heavily devolved to mayors and councils across England, who would be encouraged to devise their own priorities.

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Children will get sentences ‘more punitive than necessary’ under new crime law, Queensland LNP admits

Attorney general Deb Frecklington acknowledges bill will likely increase number of children in state watch houses

Queensland’s Liberal National party government has acknowledged their signature youth crime legislation will “directly discriminate” against children, by limiting their “protection from cruel, inhuman or degrading treatment”.

The bill is also “expected to have a greater impact on Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander children, who are already disproportionately represented in the criminal justice system,” according to the government’s tabled statement of compatibility with human rights.

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