Jim Chalmers’ first budget comes amid a darkening economic outlook. Here’s what could go wrong

The federal budget forecasts growth of 3.25% this year but hints at a slowing global economy with high inflation and interest rates

The resilience of Australian households to soaring expenses and the nascent recovery of China’s economy will likely determine whether Jim Chalmers’ first budget is a charm or chimera.

This year’s forecast for Australia’s economy to grow 3.25% may be the best this side of the next federal election as the Reserve Bank tries to douse inflation with another 75 basis points of interest rate hikes. The outlook, though, is darkening at home and abroad, adding to looming fiscal strains.

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Australian budget forecasts heavy hit to economy due to floods and disasters

Estimates growth will lose about quarter of a percentage point during the current quarter, or about $5bn in economic activity, because of flooding

The increasing frequency of weather disasters will take its toll on the economy in the near term and force the government to fork out hundreds of millions of dollars to build resilience for more to come.

As Australia endures its third La Niña event in as many years, the budget estimates growth will lose about quarter of a percentage point during the current quarter, or about $5bn in economic activity, because of the flooding across the country’s south-east.

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Labor pledges extra $200m in Australian aid for Ukraine and $500m for veterans in budget

Albanese government unveils big boost to Pacific aid partly offset by axing Coalition’s agriculture visa while sparing defence from major cuts

The Albanese government has earmarked more than $200m for additional help for Ukraine and $500m to support Australian veterans and their families, while largely sparing defence from major funding cuts.

But a massive boost in aid to the Pacific and the expansion of Pacific worker schemes announced in Tuesday’s budget will be partly offset by a $213m cut to the previous Morrison government’s programs in the foreign affairs portfolio.

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Labor hints at more controls on energy sector – as it happened

We will be breaking into the political coverage today to keep you updated on the floods as well:

Overnight, residents of the north west NSW town of Narrabri have been ordered to evacuate due to flooding, with the SES issuing the warnings for the town’s industrial and residential areas.

The rivers are very, very full and, of course, our dams are mostly at full capacity at present. So, even the smallest rainfall can cause an elevated risk of flash flooding and riverine flooding. We will see rivers decline, but the risk is real.

We are bracing for another wet weather system into the state on the weekend.

He is a friend of Australia as the UK is a friend of Australia. We congratulate him on his elevation to the Prime Ministership. The UK, like Australia, has no shortage of challenges and no shortage of economic challenges.

So, we wish Rishi Sunak well. Some of us had the opportunity to work with him briefly when we first came to government. I was able to exchange messages with him when he was unsuccessful in the last leadership ballot. I think it says something about his commitment and his persistence, the way that he conducted himself in the interim. I don’t think it’s insignificant that a country like the United Kingdom has its first Prime Minister of colour.

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NSW health minister Brad Hazzard to retire from politics at state election

71-year-old member for Wakehurst on Sydney’s northern beaches says it’s time for a ‘new beginning’

Long-serving New South Wales Liberal MP and Covid-era health minister Brad Hazzard has announced he will retire from politics at the state election, saying it is time for a “new beginning”.

The 71-year-old is best known for his role in trying to manage the Covid-19 crisis, fronting the media frequently to inform about the virus and urge adherence to recommended health measures.

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2,500 naked bodies needed: Spencer Tunick announces his return to Sydney

The US artist’s next mass nude installation will take place in November at a Sydney beach. ‘We’re hoping for a rainbow of people,’ he says

The US artist who has made an international name for himself by urging volunteers to strip naked en masse in public is returning to Australia.

Spencer Tunick’s next “nude installation”, commissioned by the charity Skin Check Champions to raise awareness of skin cancer and coinciding with National Skin Cancer Action Week, will take place on 26 November at a Sydney beach.

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Almost half of Australians support sending military to help defend Taiwan, poll suggests

YouGov survey finds people in Australia more likely to favour sending troops than people in Japan and US

Almost half of Australians believe the country should send troops to help defend Taiwan against China if required, a much higher percentage of the population than in the US or Japan, a new survey suggests.

About a third of the public in the US and Japan agreed with sending military forces to respond to such a crisis, according to polling commissioned by the US Studies Centre at the University of Sydney.

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Mark Dreyfus refuses to say when Labor added high bar for public hearings to anti-corruption bill

Attorney general accused of using public interest immunity ‘improperly’ and adding exceptional circumstances test as ‘political decision’

Mark Dreyfus has refused to reveal when federal Labor added the high bar for public hearings to its anti-corruption bill, saying to do so “would be detrimental to the public interest”.

The move has prompted former independent senator Rex Patrick to accuse the attorney general of “using public interest immunity improperly”.

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Russia and China must ‘get on side with conservation’, US tells Antarctic commission meeting in Hobart

US assistant secretary of state says two countries have stopped creation of new protected areas in Antarctica ‘for too long’

The US has urged China and Russia to “get on side with conservation” and stop blocking nearly 4m sq km in new marine protected areas around Antarctica.

Speaking at a major international meeting on Antarctic conservation in Hobart, the US assistant secretary of state, Monica Medina, said the two countries had prevented the creation of three new protected areas in Antarctic waters “for too long” and it was time to “shake up the system”.

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Budget deficit to halve this financial year but spending pressures mean boost will be short-lived

Jim Chalmers’ first budget to reveal $42bn improvement to bottom line across forward estimates but conditions will deteriorate after two years

Soaring commodity prices and a strong labour market will deliver a $42bn boost to the budget bottom line over the next four years, with the deficit more than halving this financial year.

However, the improvement – to be revealed in Jim Chalmers’ first budget on Tuesday night – will be short-lived, with worse-than-expected deficits by the end of the forward estimates as a result of growing spending pressures.

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Politics live: Nationals accuse Labor of regional ‘vendetta’; Chinese state media denounces closer security ties between Australia and Japan

Albanese government will scrap two Coalition grants programs to set up two new regional programs worth $1bn over next three years. Follow the day’s news live

Gallagher: spending audit is an ‘ongoing piece of work’

And it will continue, Katy Gallagher says:

My view is finance minister is that this is a process that should keep going. We’ve identified obviously, some of that the short term work and that will be reported in the budget.

But this spending audit should should keep going. We should do it in every budget, just to make sure that we’re constantly looking at ways we’re spending money and I think the Australian public would expect us to do that, that it’s not always adding in new spending when there’s … need that arises, and there will be, but we’re looking at existing expenditure as well and how we can reuse that or … realign it with … new investments.

It’s not exclusively infrastructure. We are finding savings across government. We have gone to every single department and ask them to look at their programs to identify programs that don’t need to be done any longer or don’t align with government priorities and where we’ve been able to return some money to the budget we’re doing that.

The other part of it is actually not adding new funding to things but using existing funding to fund some of our our priorities. So it’s been a very useful exercise and I think $22bn is a pretty reasonable figure to have achieved over just, you know, a couple of months in government.

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Australia live flood updates: body found in search for woman swept away in NSW; Echuca locals watch levee as they wait for flood waters to peak

Another low pressure system is moving towards Victoria down the NSW coast, which is likely to bring rain to Gippsland

Daniel Andrews says there will be a flood update at 11.30am

Victorian premier, Daniel Andrews, is at a school in Seaford in Melbourne’s south-east, announcing $1.6bn to upgrade schools and kindergartens. Before he goes into the details, he’s providing a short flood update.

It’s not expected that they will go higher than the peaks that were recorded during the beginning of this flood event. But it is an anxious time out there.

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Lidia Thorpe to refer herself to privileges committee over relationship with ex-bikie

Greens senator’s move heads off hostile referral by Coalition over possible perceived conflict of interest due to former role on law enforcement committee

Greens senator Lidia Thorpe will refer herself to the Senate privileges committee for possible investigation of her previously undisclosed relationship with former bikie leader Dean Martin.

Thorpe will write to the Senate president on Monday assenting to an inquiry into the possible perceived conflict of interest arising from the relationship due to her former role on the joint law enforcement committee.

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Sydney’s property prices dropped 10% this year, with $450 a day lost from average home

Decline comes as RBA documents indicate values may sink as much as 20% nationally from their February peak by end of 2024

Sydney’s property prices have fallen by more than 10% since their mid-February peak, shedding almost $450 a day in value on an average home, and leading other major markets lower, CoreLogic said.

The 10.1% decline for home values in the harbour city so far comes as documents from the Reserve Bank of Australia indicate average property values may sink as much as 20% nationally from their recent highs by the end of 2024. That decline would be the steepest since the 1980s if realised.

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‘He’s a lucky lad’: teenager sent flying into water as shark bites surf ski at Adelaide beach

Nathaniel Drummond, 19, was competing in a race at South Australia’s Seacliff Beach when the large shark attacked his vessel

A teenager escaped unscathed after a “big shark” attacked his surf ski during a race at an Adelaide beach, tearing a hole in the vessel.

Nathaniel Drummond, 19, was competing in a surf ski race at Seacliff Beach in Adelaide’s south on Sunday when a shark, believed to be a great white, sent him flying into the water.

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Jury discharged in trial of Sydney swim coach Kyle Daniels after failing to reach verdicts on 11 charges

Prosecutors to decide whether to pursue third trial after jurors acquitted Mosman swim instructor of 10 charges but could not reach decision on others

The jury in the sexual abuse retrial of Sydney swim coach Kyle James Henk Daniels has been discharged after being unable to reach verdicts on 11 charges.

Prosecutors must now decide whether to put the 24-year-old on trial for a third time.

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US prison operator begins $750,000-a-day contract for Nauru offshore regime

Previously accused of ‘egregious’ security failures, MTC will be paid $47.3m to oversee detention of 111 refugees and asylum seekers for two months

The private prison operator now in charge of Australia’s offshore processing regime on Nauru will be paid more than three-quarters of a million dollars every day to provide “garrison and welfare services” for a little over 100 people.

The US-based Management and Training Corporation – a company previously accused in US courts of “gross negligence’’ and “egregious” security failures – has been awarded a contract for $47.3m covering just 62 days of work on the Pacific island.

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UN accuses Australia of ‘clear breach’ of human rights obligations as it suspends tour of detention facilities

New South Wales and Queensland have blocked access to some facilities with NSW corrections minister saying people can’t just ‘wander through at their leisure’

The United Nations has suspended its tour of Australian detention facilities and accused the country of a “clear breach” of its obligations under the Optional Protocol to the Convention Against Torture (Opcat).

The New South Wales government has refused inspectors entry into any facilities in the state and Queensland has blocked access to mental health wards.

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Australia will join Biden’s global pledge to cut methane emissions by 30% by 2030, Albanese confirms

Funding of more than $3bn will support agricultural methane reduction, clean tech initiatives and the commercialisation of seaweed feed supplement

The Albanese government has confirmed it will join Joe Biden’s global pledge to cut methane emissions by 30% by 2030, as the prime minister warned climate change is increasing the frequency of Australia’s extreme weather events.

Guardian Australia revealed in June that Labor was considering signing the pledge, and the climate change minister Chris Bowen confirmed on Sunday Australia would be joining more than 100 other countries by making the commitment in the run-up to United Nations-led climate talks in Egypt next month.

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SES urges residents of several NSW areas to evacuate – as it happened

Flood waters in Victorian border towns reach record levels as residents of several NSW towns are urged to evacuate. This blog is now closed

Taylor: potential inflation decrease ‘a good thing’

Taylor is now discussing inflation and says the Coalition believes inflation will be down to 2.5% in the next financial year according to Labor’s forecasts.

I’ve got to say many of the investments I’ve seen out in regional New South Wales have added to productivity, very significant impact.

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