Huge surge in cases followed erroneous ‘supermodelling’ study suggesting herd immunity had been achieved

They will be remembered as India’s lost months: the stretch between September and February when Covid-19 cases in the country defied global trends, falling sharply throughout the coldest months of the year until they reached four-figure daily totals.

It was inexplicable. Was it the Indian climate? A protection conferred by childhood immunisations? Some speculated India may have naturally reached herd immunity. It was a tantalising idea that took hold in India’s highest circles of policymaking, media and science – even a government-commissioned study suggested herd immunity may indeed have been achieved. It would prove one of the most fatal miscalculations of the Covid-19 pandemic so far.

People of Indian heritage in Britain are helpless witnesses as the Covid crisis unfolds thousands of miles away

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The messages started arriving less than a month ago and have grown more desperate and frequent as the days have progressed. WhatsApp pleas from people I have never met being forwarded to me, asking about the availability of hospital beds, or anguished requests for money so that they can treat loved ones. And most heartbreaking of all, despairing calls for oxygen so that they can breathe.

Coronavirus is suffocating India, and the devastating pictures and statistics tell their own grim tale of a nation facing what is being called the world’s worst outbreak. As its politicians and medical experts try to tackle the situation, those of us with deep bonds to the country find ourselves as helpless witnesses thousands of miles away, watching the tragedy unfold.