Benefit rises will take 18 months to catch up with inflation, OBR chair tells MPs – UK politics live

Latest updates: warning comes as chancellor is to face Commons Treasury committee this afternoon amid criticism over his spring statement

Q: Is it right for trans women to be able to compete in women’s sports?

Starmer says that should be a matter for the sporting authorities.

I spent a lot of my working life dealing with violence against women and girls first-hand, and I know from that experience, just how important it is to fight for women and fight for equality.

We have had legislation in this country which makes it clear that in some circumstances, particularly at the moment under the law when you’ve gone through a process, you can be recognised in the gender of your choosing, that’s been the position for over a decade now ...

But I equally - I want to be really clear about this - I am an advocate of safe spaces for women.

I don’t think that discussing this issue in this way helps anyone in the long run.

What I want to see is a reform of the law as it is, but I am also an advocate of safe spaces for women and I want to have a discussion that is ... anybody who genuinely wants to find a way through this, I want to discuss that with, and I do find that too many people - in my view - retreat or hold a position of which is intolerant of others.

Of course there are circumstances and anybody who insults family members excites something quite emotional in all of us.

But, on the other hand, to go up and hit someone in that way is wrong, I’m afraid. It was the wrong thing to do.

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NatWest returns to majority private control as it buys back £1.2bn in shares

UK government sells more of stake in group formerly known as Royal Bank of Scotland at a loss over 2008 price

NatWest Group has returned to majority private ownership after it agreed to buy back £1.2bn of shares from the UK government, more than 13 years after the company was bailed out by taxpayers at the height of the financial crisis.

The company, formerly known as Royal Bank of Scotland Group (RBS), said it had agreed to make an off-market purchase of 550m shares, or 4.91% of its share capital, from HM Treasury at Friday’s closing price of 220.5p, in a statement to the stock market on Monday.

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Rishi Sunak tackled over failure to help poorest families

Experts say absolute poverty could hit a fifth of UK population following chancellor’s mini-budget

Rishi Sunak has sought to defend his mini-budget against accusations he failed to shield Britain’s poorest families from the worst hit to living standards in six decades, as economists warned 1.3 million people will fall into absolute poverty next year.

Amid heavy criticism of Wednesday’s spring statement from opposition leaders and his own back benches, experts from the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) and Resolution Foundation thinktanks said the chancellor could have done more to help those most at need.

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Upshot of Rishi Sunak’s spring statement? A bleak decade ahead

Analysis: Britain has ceased to be a country where workers can expect to get better off year after year

Much has been written about the year of economic misery ahead. Rishi Sunak’s attempts to mitigate the impact of the squeeze on living standards have been pored over and – generally – found wanting. The postmortem examinations carried out on the chancellor’s spring statement were unflattering.

There was plenty for the thinktanks that specialise in analysing tax, spending and living standards – the Resolution Foundation and the Institute for Fiscal Studies – to mull over.

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UK politics live: P&O Ferries boss ‘should resign after admitting company knowingly broke law’, MP says

Latest updates: transport committee chair calls on Peter Hebblethwaite to resign after admitting company chose to sack staff without consultation

Paul Johnson, director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies thinktank, has delivered his considered verdict on the spring statement at a briefing.

He dismissed Rishi Sunak as a “fiscal illusionist” and warned that public sector workers face “hefty” real-terms pay cuts in the future under Sunak’s plans. He said:

Mr Sunak has proved to be something of a fiscal illusionist. He told us that he cut taxes yesterday. In a sense he did. He increased the floor for NICs and promised a cut in income tax in 2024. So Mr Sunak’s statement contained big new tax cuts. But it also allowed taxes to rise. He can now expect to raise more in tax as a share of national income by 2025 than he expected last October. In fact, taxes are set to rise to their highest level as a fraction of national income since Clement Attlee was prime minister. Not my comparison, that comes directly from the OBR.

[Sunak] is also effectively cutting spending on public services in real terms relative to previous plans. Yesterday he offered them no extra cash at all to deal with higher inflation. The exact scale of this cut relative to previous plans is a little uncertain, but it is significant. It will almost certainly mean some more hefty real pay cuts across the public sector, coming on top of cuts both in real terms and relative to the private sector over the last 12 years.

This is a tax raising chancellor. The tax burden is the highest it’s been since the 1940s.

The chancellor can say as many times as he likes that he’s a tax-cutting chancellor but it’s a bit like a kid in his bedroom playing air guitar – he’s not a rockstar.

The problem is for this chancellor, is that by the end of this parliament seven out of eight people will be paying more taxes – only one in eight will be paying less taxes.

That’s a disaster for working people, for the poorest people in society who are struggling with rising food prices, rising petrol prices and most of all the big increases in tax and electricity bills.

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War in Ukraine could lead to food riots in poor countries, warns WTO boss

Exclusive: Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala says impact of conflict on food prices and hunger could be substantial

Rocketing global food prices as a result of the war in Ukraine could trigger riots from those going hungry in poor countries, the head of the World Trade Organization has said.

Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala warned food-producing countries against hoarding supplies and said it was vital to avoid a repeat of the Covid pandemic, when rich countries were able to secure for themselves the bulk of vaccines.

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Britain and US agree on steel tariffs as hopes of broader trade deal recede

Pact ends months of tensions but talks on full free-trade agreement remain far off

The UK has struck a deal with the US to remove tariffs on British steel exports, although trade experts warned a broader trade deal between the two countries remains far off.

The agreement was struck after UK’s international trade minister, Anne-Marie Trevelyan, met her counterpart, the US commerce secretary, Gina Raimondo, on Tuesday evening in Washington.

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Rishi Sunak handed borrowing boost before spring statement

Figures improve chances of fuel duty or other tax cuts but inflation drives up cost of government debt

Rishi Sunak has been handed a boost from figures showing lower government borrowing than official estimates on the eve of the spring statement.

The figures come despite a sharp rise in debt interest payments last month amid soaring inflation.

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Treasury considers ways to ease cost of living in spring statement

Reluctant to make big fiscal changes, chancellor Rishi Sunak considers tax adjustments and fuel duty cut

The Treasury has drawn up a range of options to help with the cost of living crisis – including a 1p cut to income tax, raising the national insurance threshold and a significant cut to fuel duty.

But government sources said Rishi Sunak, the chancellor, was still reluctant to make big fiscal changes.

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Car-free Sundays? IEA sets out 10-point plan to reduce global oil demand

Energy watchdog says measures could help cut oil usage by 2.7m barrels a day within four months

Driving more slowly, turning down the air-conditioning, car free Sundays and working from home should be adopted as emergency measures to reduce the global demand for oil, according to a 10-point plan from the International Energy Agency (IEA).

Such measures and changes to consumer behaviour would allow the world to cut its oil usage by 2.7m barrels per day (bpd) within four months – equivalent to more than half of Russia’s exports – the global energy watchdog said.

Reduce speed limits on highways by at least 10 km/h
Saves about 290,000 bpd of oil use from cars, and an additional 140,000 bpd if trucks also reduced their speed.

“A reduction in speed limits can be implemented by national governments; many countries did so during the 1973 oil crisis, including the United States and several European countries,” the IEA said.

Work from home up to three days a week where possible
One day a week saves about 170,000 bpd; three days saves about 500,000.

Pre-pandemic, the use of private vehicles to commute was responsible for about 2.7m barrels of oil use a day, the IEA said, yet about one-third of those jobs could be done from home.

Car-free Sundays in cities
Every Sunday saves about 380,000 bpd; one Sunday a month saves 95,000.

Switzerland, the Netherlands and West Germany did this during the 1973 oil crisis and some cities have used the measure to promote public health more recently. Benefits include cleaner air, reduced noise pollution and improved road safety, the IEA report said.

Make public transport cheaper and incentivise walking and cycling
Saves about 330,000 bpd.

New Zealand is halving public transport fares for the next three months in response to high fuel prices, while studies in the US have shown cheaper fares lead to greater use. Some governments have incentivised people to walk or subsidised bike purchases. All of this would require government subsidy.

Alternate private car access to roads in large cities (eg every other day)
Saves about 210,000 bpd.

For example, cars whose number plate ends with an odd number can drive on Monday and those with an even number can drive on Tuesdays. Such schemes have been deployed to tackle congestion and air pollution peaks in Athens, Madrid, Paris, Milan and Mexico City. Exceptions could be made for electric vehicles. One downside is that households with multiple cars could game the rules.

Increase car sharing and adopt practices to reduce fuel use
Saves about 470,000 bpd.

Carpooling has long been used as a way to save money and reduce emissions. Governments can incentivise this with dedicated traffic lanes and parking spaces, or by reducing road tolls on higher occupancy vehicles. Many smartphone apps exist to arrange ride-shares.

Promote efficient driving for freight trucks and delivery of goods
Saves about 320,000 bpd.

As with private cars, freight trucks can be driven more efficiently, including the use of so-called “eco-driving” techniques such as reducing excess weight and not slowing down or speeding up abruptly. Loads should also be optimised to avoid journeys with empty vehicles.

Using high-speed and night trains instead of planes
Saves about 40,000 bpd.

Based on existing high-speed rail infrastructure, about 2% of flights in advanced economies could be shifted to trains, according to the IEA. Almost all of this involves flights of less than 800km.

Avoid business air travel where alternative options exist
Saves about 260,000 bpd.

The IEA recommends virtual meetings where possible and points out that firms such as HSBC, Zurich Insurance and S&P Global plan to cut their business travel emissions by as much as 70%.

Reinforce the adoption of electric and more efficient vehicles
Saves about 100,000 bpd.

By the end of last year, 8.4m electrical vehicles (EVs) were on the road in advanced economies but the IEA urged faster adoption. “Actions taken now to hasten the adoption of electric vehicles will have a sustained effect in the future,” it said.

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US Federal Reserve raises interest rates for first time since 2018

Fed raises rates by a quarter percentage point from near zero as central bank struggles with inflation, the war in Ukraine and Covid

The Federal Reserve has raised interest rates for the first time since 2018, as the central bank struggles with soaring US inflation, the impact of the war in Ukraine and the coronavirus crisis.

The Fed raised rates by a quarter percentage point from near zero, in what is expected to be the first in a series of raises in the coming months.

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UK wages fall at fastest rate since 2014 as cost-of-living squeeze bites

Unemployment rate falls below pre-Covid level but rising prices and energy bills hitswages

Unemployment in the UK has fallen below pre-Covid levels, but high inflation amid Britain’s cost of living crisis means average wages fell at the fastest rate since 2014.

The Office for National Statistics said the unemployment rate fell to 3.9% in the three months to January, dropping below the 4% rate in February 2020 before the coronavirus pandemic took hold in the UK.

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UK living standards face squeeze despite strong jobs market

Analysis: Higher prices, taxes and energy costs will bring gloom despite low level of unemployment

Demand for workers is strong as the economy emerges from two years of pandemic-induced disruption. The supply of workers has been reduced by an increase in long-term sickness affecting mainly the over 50 age group.

As a result, there is enough upward pressure on pay to persuade the Bank of England to continue raising interest rates, but the big squeeze on living standards has begun.

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US inflation jumped to 40-year high of 7.9% last month

The rise was propelled by increased prices for gas, food and housing in the sharpest spike since 1982

Propelled by surging costs for gas, food and housing, consumer inflation jumped 7.9% over the past year, the sharpest spike since 1982 and likely only a harbinger of even higher prices to come.

The increase reported Thursday by the labor department reflected the 12 months ending in February and did not include most of the oil and gas price increases that followed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on 24 February. Since then, average gas prices nationally have jumped about 62 cents a gallon to $4.32, according to AAA.

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Energy crisis: UK could learn from Fukushima response, MPs told

Japanese measures including turning down the heating and slower trains could ease pressure on British households, say experts

Britain could learn from Japan’s response to the Fukushima nuclear plant disaster by reducing energy consumption to deal with soaring global gas prices after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, academics have said.

Suggesting a coordinated response to record gas prices could help ease the pressure on households, experts told MPs on the Commons business committee that steps to reduce national demand for gas-fired power next winter could be deployed.

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Ukraine crisis puts Sunak under new pressure to axe national insurance rise

Tory MPs and business groups urge chancellor to scrap increase intended to fund NHS and social care amid fears of stagflation

Chancellor Rishi Sunak is under renewed pressure from MPs and business groups to rethink plans to increase national insurance next month, as fears grow that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will dramatically worsen the cost of living crisis and plunge the economy into “stagflation”.

Both Tory and Labour MPs believe Sunak can still be persuaded to ditch the 1.25 percentage point rise – announced last September to fund the NHS and social care – and want him to use the potentially devastating effects of events in Ukraine on prices as justification for what they say is an urgently needed U-turn.

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Ukraine war a ‘catastrophe’ for global economy as stock markets plunge

Moscow stock exchange remained closed during the week, while the rouble fell to record lows

The London stock market has suffered its biggest weekly losses since the start of the global pandemic in March 2020, as investors took fright at the escalation of the conflict in Ukraine.

Shares plunged in the City following news of a fire and Russian capture of Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia nuclear power station, with the one-day drop of more than 250 points in the FTSE 100 index taking the weekly loss to 6.7%.

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Only 6% of G20 pandemic recovery spending ‘green’, analysis finds

Review of G20 fiscal stimulus spending counters many countries’ pledges to ‘build back better’

Only about 6% of pandemic recovery spending has been “green”, an analysis of the $14tn that G20 countries have poured into economic stimulus.

Additionally, about 3% of the record amounts governments around the world have spent to rescue the global economy from the Covid-19 pandemic has been spent on activities that will increase carbon emissions, such as subsidies to coal, and will do little to reduce greenhouse gases or shift the world to a low-carbon footing.

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Eighty-year-old study of British slave trade is back in the bestsellers list

Capitalism and Slavery, by the future first prime minister of Trinidad and Tobago Eric Williams, argues that the abolition of slavery was motivated by economic, not moral, concerns

A book of unpalatable truths about Britain’s slave trade has become a UK bestseller, almost 80 years after author Eric Williams was told by a British publisher: “I would never publish such a book, for it would be contrary to the British tradition.”

Capitalism and Slavery was first published in the US in 1944. It was published in the UK by the independent publisher André Deutsch in 1964, with a number of reprints over the next 20 years.

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Sanctions are neither new nor guaranteed to work – just look at Cuba

Analysis: Economic penalties have been meted out since Napoleon’s day but there’s little proof they achieve the desired outcome

Waging war by economic means is nothing new. Napoleon imposed an ineffective embargo on British exports in the early 19th century and during the first world war there were attempts by both sides to starve each other into submission.

But since 1945 sanctions have been used with increasing frequency as a means of trying to change either the policy stance or the regimes in targeted countries.

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