IMF upgrades UK growth forecast as fears over impact of Iran war diminish

July update projects GDP growth of 1% this year, making UK the third fastest-growing economy in the G7

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has upgraded its growth forecast for the UK, while leaving those for other G7 countries weaker or unchanged, amid hopes the economic impact of the Iran war may be less severe than feared.

In a July update of its World Economic Outlook, which was finalised before the latest outbreak of hostilities in the Middle East, the Washington-based organisation projected UK gross domestic product to grow by 1% this year – up 0.2 percentage points from its April forecast.

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Farage warned attack against ‘establishment’ over unregistered gifts could lead to harsher punishment – UK politics live

Reform UK leader claims he is victim of ‘hit job’ as parliamentary standards commissioner investigates £5m donation

On the subject of Andy Burnham, the Financial Times is running a story today saying the access talks his team is holding with senior civil servants, intended to help Whitehall departments get ready to implement the new PM’s policy agenda, are being hindered by the fact that Burnham has not decided who will do the top cabinet jobs.

In the story, Lucy Fisher, George Parker and Anna Gross say:

Talks have not yet formally started with the Treasury and Burnham’s refusal to nominate a chancellor has complicated transition planning.

One Labour figure complained Burnham’s operation was “skeletal”, adding: “Access talks require a shadow cabinet. Burnham needs to nominate key people in advance or he cannot have meaningful talks” ….

Yes. And look – I’m not going to go into what we discussed privately, but everything I’ve seen from Andy publicly suggests that he knows that welfare reform is absolutely necessary … [because] it’s fundamentally about the life chances of a whole generation of young people.

And if we think the best option and best opportunity that we can gift as a country to a generation of young people is a life on benefits – are we serious?

My sense is that the appetite, both within the parliamentary Labour party and the new administration, will be absolutely up for doing this.

One of those is how we support young people. I will not defend an education system that is overly focused on the university route and does not lay out paths to technical qualifications for our young people. Too many young people get to year 10 at school, and they can’t see where school is taking them, because the system isn’t focusing on those young people.

And then, at 16, I believe we need the guarantee of a work placement for 16 to 18-year-olds, apprenticeships for every 16 to 18-year-old who wants one, and what I’ve done in Great Manchester is something that might be looked at more broadly, free bus travel for 16 to 18-year-olds, so that they can access those opportunities.

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What impact will Andy Burnham have on Zack Polanski and the Greens?

Voters disillusioned with Starmer’s Labour were tempted by the Greens – but Polanski’s party fears the affable, left-leaning Burnham could win them back

The shift was notable. A week after Keir Starmer said he would resign, YouGov polling showed Labour up two points and the Greens down by the same amount. Might an Andy Burnham premiership mean a rethink for Zack Polanski’s party?

The short answer is it is too early to know, particularly in an era of unprecedented political volatility and the seesawing poll numbers that come with it. This year alone, a five-point Labour lead over the Greens has become a similar margin in favour of the Greens, and then a seven-point advantage for Labour.

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Labour MPs call on water firms to save Britain’s lost lidos

Group, whose constituencies have derelict or at-risk pools, are campaigning to make outdoor swimming available for all

Cooling, blue expanses of water have been a lifesaver for many lucky enough to live near a lido during the recent UK heatwave.

Now, a group of 20 MPs, along with the Fabian Society, are calling for this relief to be made accessible for all by getting water companies to fund the reopening of the country’s lost lidos.

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Keir Starmer ally Hollie Ridley to step down as Labour general secretary

Exclusive: As well as citing personal reasons, Ridley says she is making way for a successor ‘to work alongside new leader’

Hollie Ridley, Labour’s general secretary, is to step down this autumn after two years in the job, she has announced to party staff.

Ridley, an ally of Keir Starmer who ran Labour’s field operations in the 2024 general win election, said in an internal email she would stand down after the party’s annual conference in September.

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Burnham ‘coronation’ will anger some Labour members, party bosses warned

NEC told it must take steps to address fears – including not hiring Everton stadium to announce new leader before nominations even open

Labour chiefs have been warned they must placate disgruntled Labour members who are angry at the lack of party democracy because Andy Burnham is not expected to face a challenge to become Labour leader.

MPs have told the party there are growing complaints from members about the lack of involvement from members if Burnham does not face a leadership contest from any other MP.

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Badenoch urges Burnham to condemn defence investment plan as Starmer says black hole will be addressed – UK politics live

Minister and MPs have raised concerns that his ‘poisoned chalice’ plan will take cash from much-needed road projects

Dan Sabbagh is the Guardian’s defence and security editor.

Andy Burnham is a “true patriot” who will provide the money needed to maintain Britain’s security when he becomes prime minister, the new defence secretary, Dan Jarvis, said on a visit to a factory in Cambridge today.

I’ve known Andy Burnham for more than 15 years, he is a true patriot, and I absolutely believe that he will make sure that we have the resources that we need to field the kind of capabilities that are required given the nature of the world that we’re operating in.

I know what we need to do to keep Britain safe, and I’m absolutely confident that Andy Burnham, as the next prime minister, knows that as well, and we’ll make sure in the context of the next spending review that we’ve got the resources we need to keep the country safe.

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Starmer unveils extra £15bn for UK defence, with some road and energy projects scrapped to fund rise – politics live

Starmer says defence spending cannot be ‘bottomless pit’ and MoD has to ‘spend better’

Keir Starmer is speaking now.

They are at Malloy Aeronautics, a firm that designs heavy-lift drones, and Starmer says this morning they showed him one of the heaviest drones he had ever seen.

Last year, I made the decision in the national interest to reprioritise aid spending towards defence and achieve the biggest uplift in defence spending since the end of the cold war.

That was the right choice because the world has changed. National security is economic security.

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Burnham brings emotional connection and optimism in vibe shift from Starmer

Labour MPs value Burnham’s warmth as a communicator but they know that will not be enough on its own

When Keir Starmer welcomed Mark Rutte, the Nato secretary general, outside No 10 on Monday, the attire fitted the moment: dark formal suits, polished leather shoes. Almost 200 miles to the north, when Andy Burnham strode into the engine hall of the People’s History Museum in Manchester, the vibe could not have been more different.

Dressed in his trademark dark T-shirt and jacket, Burnham could just as easily have been walking down the street outside. He even began with a joke about his thigh-skimming running shorts, after he was pictured going for a jog the morning after announcing his return to parliament, telling the assembled audience he had bought a new pair as it was “either do that or change the decency laws”.

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Lucy Powell agrees Ed Miliband would be ‘good’ as Andy Burnham’s chancellor

Labour deputy leader says she thinks energy secretary would suit Treasury but ‘tittle-tattle’ over posts ‘unedifying’

Ed Miliband would make a “good” chancellor to Andy Burnham, Labour’s deputy leader, Lucy Powell, has said, before the likely next prime minister’s first major speech on the economy since he returned to Westminster.

Powell, who served as Miliband’s chief of staff in opposition and is close to the former party leader, appeared to endorse him to run the Treasury – although some in Burnham’s camp acknowledge such a move could be politically risky.

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Burnham may have to boost defence spending to pass ‘Moscow test’, says ex-military chief

Adm Sir Tony Radakin says UK currenly ‘falls short’ of level required to keep Russian threats at bay

The former head of the armed forces has told Andy Burnham that plans for defence spending must meet a “Moscow test” to keep Russian threats at bay, warning the UK currently “falls short” of that level of commitment.

Adm Sir Tony Radakin, who was the chief of the defence staff until last year, said that if the government’s defence investment plan (Dip), expected to be published this week, was “not enough” then the probable next prime minister would have to find more funding before the general election.

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Mahmood outlines safe immigration routes plan to win over Labour left

Home secretary speeds up major part of bill governing asylum and refugees as new prime minister set to take over

Shabana Mahmood will seek to shore up support for her controversial immigration bill on the progressive left of Labour, as she sets out plans to speed up the opening of new safe and legal routes that will permit thousands of refugees to come to the UK.

The home secretary, who is the leading contender to stay in her job if Andy Burnham becomes prime minister, will next week introduce the legislation, which will also set new limits on immigration claims on human rights grounds and under modern slavery law.

Removing modern slavery protections for any foreign national who has committed a crime and received a sentence, scrapping the previous 12-month threshold.

Rejecting last-minute modern slavery claims where an objection could have been raised earlier or where there is evidence of false documentation.

Allowing immigration claims to be brought under the right to a family life only if the family member is a parent, spouse or child under 18 except in exceptional circumstances.

A new test to make clear that deporting foreign national offenders is in the public interest and should only be blocked in the most exceptional circumstances.
Applications for family reunion under the right to a family life will in future have to be brought by a UK-based sponsor, not the overseas family member.

Giving every trafficked and exploited child a dedicated independent guardian to support their safeguarding and recovery.

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Andy Burnham says he will give 15% of his MP’s pay to local causes

New member for Makerfield and expected next prime minister joins other MPs who donate some or all of their pay

Andy Burnham has said he will be donating 15% of his MP’s salary to local causes in his constituency of Makerfield.

An MP’s salary currently stands at £98,599 and a number of MPs donate all or part of their salary to charities and causes in the areas they represent.

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Starmer says he wants to ensure disruption during transition to Burnham government ‘absolutely minimised’ – UK politics live

PM says: ‘I love this country, I want this country to thrive, and I shall do everything I can to make sure it’s a success and thrives’

In her Q&A this morning Rachel Reeves, the chancellor, confirmed that she wants the government to approve the licences for the Rosebank and Jackdaw oil and gas fields in the North Sea.

She said:

I’ve been very clear that I think that the North Sea is a crucial asset for the UK, and that oil and gas will be an important part of our energy mix for years to come. And I’m very keen to make sure that we use that resource, to ensure our energy security.

There are decisions to be made shortly on both Rosebank and Jackdaw. Those are quasi-judicial decisions. But in our manifesto two years ago, we committed to honour existing licences, and I hope that we do.

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‘Act on the evidence outside the window’: Andy Burnham urged to stick to net zero targets if he becomes PM

Mayor of Manchester is coming under pressure from some to ditch net zero targets but this could be highly damaging on many levels

Britain’s net zero economy is booming. The sector is worth £100bn a year to the UK, has outpaced other sectors, and supports higher-paying jobs than the average.

For a union leader to suggest that the man who has overseen this impressive record – the energy secretary, Ed Miliband – would be a “noose around the neck” of job creation, as Unite’s Sharon Graham has done, might seem extraordinary.

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Darren Jones says bond markets should be ‘content’ with Burnham’s economic plans – UK politics live

Chief secretary to PM rules out leadership bid as he says he has received reassurances from Burnham

London, Oldham, Bradford and Keighley are to be the first towns and cities investigated by the grooming gangs inquiry, the Press Association reports. PA says:

The £65m probe is investigating how grooming gangs operated and how police, councils, health services, social care services and schools responded.

The announcement confirmed which areas will first face so-called local investigations – where serious failures have been identified in response to child sexual exploitation by grooming gangs.

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Darren Jones says he will not challenge Andy Burnham for Labour leadership

Chief secretary to PM says he had been ‘reassured’ about Burnham’s economic plans after conversation with him

Andy Burnham has moved a step closer to becoming prime minister after Darren Jones, the chief secretary to the prime minister, said he would not stand in a Labour leadership contest.

Jones, who had been mooted as a candidate who could put Burnham’s ideas to a test in a race, told Sky News that he had had a “reassuring conversation” with the newly elected MP for Makerfield about his economic policy plans.

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Keir Starmer tells cabinet he wants to ‘resolve difficult issues’ before leaving No 10 – UK politics live

Prime minister gives fresh indication of his intention to finalise and publish defence investment plan before leaving office

Peter Walker is a senior Guardian political correspondent.

The Liberal Democrats are marking the tenth anniversary of Brexit by enjoying their favourite pursuit – being rude about Nigel Farage.

Nigel Farage pocketed a £5m “reward” for the damage he’s caused, while the rest of us are paying for it dearly. When he promised we would be better off, he clearly only meant himself. We are taking over billboards across the UK today to say enough is enough.

Key to a serious Jones run seems to what he makes of Burnham’s economic policies in the coming days - including public control of utilities. And whether Ed Miliband ends up as chancellor.

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Keir Starmer expected to announce resignation timetable, paving way for Burnham premiership – UK politics live

It’s still unclear whether there will be a leadership contest or an uncontested handover of power

All the national newspapers are splashing on the fate of Keir Starmer. The BBC has a summary including pictures of all the front pages. Two papers, the Times and the Daily Telegraph, have headlines saying Burnham wants to be PM by September.

Alex Burghart, the shadow Cabinet Office minister, was on the Today programme this morning putting the Conservative party’s case on Keir Starmer being replaced. He said having a new PM would not make much difference because the government’s problems were down to the views of Labour MPs. He said:

Constitutionally there doesn’t have to be a general election, you can change prime ministers. What matters is whether the prime minister has the support of MPs in parliament.

But I have to say that there, it’s not just Keir Starmer’s legitimacy that is being called into question, it’s Labour’s.

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Monday briefing: What’s next for no-drama Starmer as his ‘political challenges’ pile up?

In today’s newsletter: Our senior political correspondent talks about how the coming days and weeks may unfold for the Labour government, and how Keir Starmer ended up the most unpopular prime minister in memory

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Good morning. Today’s the day, probably. Keir Starmer is expected to announce that he will step down as prime minister, after overwhelming pressure from Labour MPs to make way for Andy Burnham to become party leader.

This follows the Manchester mayor’s emphatic victory in last Thursday’s Makerfield byelection, where he leveraged his popularity and the prevailing anti-Starmer mood to secure more votes than Reform and Restore combined, cementing his credentials as the man who can take on the hard right in the next general election.

Middle East | High-stakes talks between the US and Iran are expected to continue for the rest of the week in Switzerland, after a tense start that saw Iranian negotiators walk out in protest at a stream of threats issued by Donald Trump on social media.

Edinburgh | Police Scotland said a man was charged after a series of attacks in Edinburgh on Friday night that are being treated as potential anti-Muslim hate crimes. Counter-terrorism officers were brought in to investigate the attacks in which five people were injured.

UK weather | The Met Office forecasts that extremely high temperatures could last from Monday until Thursday, leading to health concerns for elderly and vulnerable people.

UK news | Police have named the driver killed in the Bedford train crash on Friday, as his family said they “are devastated by his loss”.

Prisons | Pet ferrets kept as therapy animals at the UK’s largest children’s prison have been co-opted by managers to kill rats, resulting in a bloody incident and concerns over child and animal welfare.

Tuesday | This day marks the 10 years since the UK voted to leave the EU. A Guardian report analysing the complex legacy of Brexit through boats, bankers and borders is a good place to consider the legacy of leaving the EU.

Tuesday | Also this day, Peter Murrell, the ex-chief executive of the SNP, is likely to be sentenced to prison custody after pleading guilty to embezzling more than £400,000 from the party.

Wednesday | Donna Ockenden will publish her review of Nottingham University Hospitals NHS Trust, Britain’s biggest maternity care scandal.

Friday | Kings Charles will become the first head of state to reveal their personal tax bill, and will release other financial reports for the royal household.

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