In today’s newsletter: Rishi Sunak’s party were expecting a difficult contest – but the results were even more dire than predicted, as political correspondent Kiran Stacey explains

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Good morning.

A fraught situation is intensifying in Rafah, the city in southern Gaza where more than a million displaced people have been sheltering. Israel’s armed forces have this morning called for those in the “eastern neighbourhoods of Rafah” to “temporarily” evacuate to an expanded humanitarian area in Al-Mawasi. It comes after months of warnings that there would be a ground invasion of the beleaguered city as Israeli forces pursue Hamas militants. To keep a close eye on further developments, follow the Guardian’s live blog.

China | Xi Jinping has arrived in Paris for a rare visit against a backdrop of mounting trade disputes with the EU. The French president, Emmanuel Macron, is set to urge his Chinese counterpart to reduce trade imbalances and to use his influence with Russia over the war in Ukraine.

Israel-Gaza war | Israel used a US weapon in a March airstrike that killed seven volunteer paramedics in southern Lebanon, according to a Guardian analysis of shrapnel found at the site of the attack, which was described by Human Rights Watch as a violation of international law. In Jersualem, authorities shut down the local offices of Al Jazeera on Sunday, using newly approved laws. Critics called the move – which came amid faltering indirect ceasefire negotiations between Israel and Hamas – a “dark day for the media”.

Immigration and asylum | Rwanda has admitted it cannot guarantee how many people it will take from the UK under Rishi Sunak’s deportation scheme. It did not give assurances that the estimated 52,000 asylum seekers eligible to be sent to Kigali would be accepted, instead saying it would be “thousands”.

Agriculture | The National Farmers’ Union warned that farmers’ confidence has hit its lowest level in at least 14 years, with extreme weather and the post-Brexit phasing-out of EU subsidies blamed for the drop. Most farms are expecting to reduce food production next year, with arable farming particularly badly hit.

Transport | Train drivers in the Aslef union are embarking on another round of industrial action, despite tentative attempts by the industry to restart talks. Drivers will strike for 24 hours at each of England’s national train operators from Tuesday until Thursday, while an overtime ban will apply nationwide from today until Saturday.