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When France and Germany announced a plan to raise €500bn (£448bn) on financial markets to fund a European coronavirus recovery plan, leaders sought to underscore the magnitude of the moment.
The French president, Emmanuel Macron, hailed “a real change of philosophy”, with the plan for the European commission to borrow money on behalf of the entire EU and issue grants to the most stricken industries and regions. Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, declared: “The nation state has no future standing alone,” and the German finance minister, Olaf Scholz, evoked the legacy of the US founding father Alexander Hamilton, who helped to transform the US into a true political unit with his scheme for the national government to take on debts accrued by individual states.
European commission has warned of possible legal action over constitutional court ruling
Angela Merkel has stepped in to try to find a way out of a damaging clash between Germany and Brussels after the EU threatened to bring infringement proceedings over a ruling by the country’s constitutional court.
The German chancellor stressed that the dispute was solvable, after the European commission president, Ursula von der Leyen, issued an unusual statement on Sunday warning of possible legal action against Berlin.
France and the Netherlands have openly clashed over the meaning of a messy compromise struck by finance ministers which has unlocked a €500bn (£438bn) pandemic rescue package for European economies but left major issues unresolved.
Hours after a breakthrough was secured late on Thursday evening to allow immediate support for businesses and healthcare systems, it became clear on Friday that there remained bitter divisions within the EU over the longer-term task of rebuilding the European economy.
A messy compromise to unlock €500bn (£438bn) of EU support for countries hit hardest by the coronavirus pandemic has been struck after Italy’s prime minister, Giuseppe Conte, warned that the existence of the bloc was at stake.
EU finance ministers on a video conference call struck a deal late on Thursday after the Netherlands shifted on a demand for “economic surveillance” of countries benefiting from €240bn of credit lines via the European stability mechanism, a bailout fund for struggling member states.
The European Union has weathered the storms of eurozone bailouts, the migration crisis and Brexit, but some fear coronavirus could be even more destructive.
In a rare intervention Jacques Delors, the former European commission president who helped build the modern EU, broke his silence last weekend to warn that lack of solidarity posed “a mortal danger to the European Union”.
International trade slump and coronavirus outbreak combine to weaken consumer demand
Japan’s economy is heading for a recession this year after figures showed the world’s third largest economy slumped by an annual rate of 6.3% during the last quarter of 2019.
Germany, the world’s fourth largest economy, is also expected to stumble as the coronavirus epidemic and a slump in trade with China combine with weak consumer demand to drag growth lower.
Mario Draghi says bank will reboot quantitative easing in month Lagarde succeeds him
The European Central Bank has announced a fresh stimulus package in an attempt to prevent the fragile eurozone economy from grinding to a halt, with an interest rate cut and plans to pump €20bn (£19bn) a month into the financial markets.
In one of his final acts in his ECB presidency, before Christine Lagarde takes charge in November, Mario Draghi said governments across the eurozone needed to take greater steps to reboot growth by ramping up public spending or cutting taxes.
Eurozone growth came in unchanged on its third estimate: 0.2% growth in the second quarter of the year.
A minor beat on the headline year-on-year growth rate, remaining at 1.2% against 1.1% expectations, but otherwise no shocks.
Labour has confirmed that it will not vote for an election on Monday even if a bill intended to stop a no-deal Brexit passes before then.
If we vote to have a general election, then no matter what it is that Boris Johnson promises, it is up to him to advise the Queen when the general election should be. And given that he has shown himself to be a manifest liar, and someone who has said that he will die in a ditch rather than stop no deal, and indeed his adviser, [Dominic] Cummings, has been swearing and shouting at MPs saying they are leaving on 31 [October] no matter what, our first priority has to be that we must stop no deal and we must make sure that that is going to happen.
Bundesbank says summer’s slump in exports is expected to continue into the autumn
Germany’s economy is heading into recession after the country’s central bank warned that a slump in exports during the summer was likely to continue into the autumn.
The Bundesbank said a downturn in orders for cars and industrial equipment in the second quarter of the year was likely to continue in the third quarter, leaving the economy on the brink of a technical recession, defined as two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth.
Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news as Mario Draghi expected to prepare central bank for interest rate cuts
It will be too late for the ECB’s interest rates decision, but the latest measure of German business confidence from the influential Ifo Institute shows that morale has sagged more than expected in July.
The closely followed measure fell to a reading of 95.7 – well below the consensus expectations of 97.1.
Boris Johnson is planning to set out his “priorities for government” in his first appearance as prime minister in the house of commons – at about 10:30am BST.
Perhaps he can shed some more light on what will be happening by 31 October, the Brexit deadline.
Following Business Qs, there will be one government oral statement in the @HouseofCommons today:
Central banks in spotlight amid Brexit uncertainty and growth concerns
The Bank’s reticence to raise rates has been hinted at by Gertjan Vlieghe and Silvana Tenreyro, two of the nine-member monetary policy committee.
Weaker growth prospects have come on top of concerns about Brexit, according to Martin Beck, lead UK economist at Oxford Economics, a consultancy. He expects a 9-0 vote to keep policy unchanged, saying:
The economy’s recent performance has been broadly in line with the MPC’s expectations. But public pronouncements by some committee members on downside risks have indicated a dovish shift around the pace of future rate hikes.
In light of the continued failure to get a Brexit deal through Parliament, Brexit uncertainty remains a key block on action by the MPC.
The Bank of England will also be in action later this week, with a monetary policy announcement on Thursday at midday.
Anything other than a unanimous vote to keep interest rates on hold would be a shock, for fairly obvious reasons.
Trade Optimism Trumped Weak European Economic Sentiment today, says Fiona Cincotta of City Index.
She explains
Global markets bounced higher on Tuesday as optimism grows over a US – Sino trade deal. A strong Asian session spilled into Europe, although markets pared gains as Wall Street opened owing to increasing tech concerns.
US and China extending trade talks for another day has been interpreted as a positive sign by the markets. Whilst no reason was given for the extension, Trump’s tweet that the talks “were going very well” was sufficient to lift sentiment boosting appetite for riskier assets such as stocks, whilst safe haven gold declined.
With US and China working to resolve their issues, the Fed promising to remain flexible and the US economy firing on all cylinders it is easy to see why sentiment is on the up. Obviously, this is not the end of US – China trade tensions by a long shot, ad there will almost certainly be further bumps and twists along the way but for now the markets are happy with the slow steady progress which it perceives has been achieved.
This comes hot on heels of downbeat German factory orders, which dropped by -4.3% in November. These are the latest signs that the eurozone economy is slowing, as trade tensions sap momentum for the powerhouse of Europe.
Britain’s FTSE 100 index of top shares has closed 50 points higher at 6861 points, a gain of 0.75% today.
Optimism that Beijing and Washington are making progress in their trade negotiations lured investors into buying shares, following the recent sell off.