Federal election 2019: Coalition surplus forecasts ‘heroic’, thinktank says – politics live

Analysis from Grattan Institute says government ‘probably’ on right trajectory for next year but deficit likely later. All the day’s events, live

Does Scott Morrison think he is popular in Victoria, given he has spent two days campaigning there?

There will be two choices after May 18 - there’s myself and Bill Shorten. Both of our parties have changed our rules. Not before time, but we both have. And those rules mean that whoever you elect as prime minister on May 18 - they will be your prime minister for the next three years. So if you vote for Bill Shorten, you’ll get Bill Shorten.

And if you vote for me, and the Liberal and National parties, you will get me to serve you as your prime minister for the next three years, and to pursue the stronger economy that guarantees rely on for essential services.”

On whether Sam Dastyari has any connection to Labor’s pathology announcement:

Well, this would seem to be the suggestion today - that Sam Dastyari was on Bill Shorten’s campaign bus at the last election and the suggestion now is he’s on Bill Shorten’s gravy train when it comes to this latest announcement. Let’s just see what happens there, I suppose. I mean, I have no knowledge of that. But it’s something for Bill Shorten to explain - from the campaign bus to the gravy train - that’s quite a passage for Sam Dastyari. But, you know, if anyone was gonna be able to do it, I suspect it was him.”

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Left behind: the Australians neither political party wants to discuss

The pressing moral issue of poverty sits outside the major parties’ carefully-tested election messages. Guardian Australia believes it’s too important to be sidelined

In their campaign war rooms the major parties are busy devising ways to “control the narrative”, to steer this election debate towards issues where they believe their pitch is strongest.

But there is a group of Australians whose desperate situation neither major party really wants to discuss. This moral issue of pressing national importance sits outside the major parties’ carefully-tested election messages and there is a real risk it might not be raised in the campaign at all.

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Australian election 2019: Coalition’s tax attack on Labor blunted as Dutton makes gaffe on disability

The day started with Scott Morrison talking about a $387bn Labor tax slug and ended with Bill Shorten calling a Peter Dutton jibe ‘disgusting’

Scott Morrison’s ambition to make day two of the election campaign all about a $387bn Labor tax slug has been disrupted by Treasury disavowing the number and Peter Dutton accusing his Labor opponent in Dickson of using her disability “as an excuse’’ for not moving into the electorate.

Morrison hit the hustings on Friday armed with what the government said was new Treasury numbers revealing Labor’s “tax hit on the economy” would be $387bn but, later in the day, the Treasury head Phil Gaetjens confirmed officials had costed Labor measures at the government’s request but had not provided a total, making it clear the calculation was the government’s number.

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Post-Christchurch social media laws are ‘world-first’, says Christian Porter – politics live

The Labor leader will give his party’s 2019 budget reply tonight, with bigger tax cuts for workers among the promises. All the day’s events, live

We are in the downhill slide for the final question time for the final time of the 45th parliament.

Cathy McGowan managed to bring everyone together for her farewell

Cathy McGowan and her Indi army of supporters in the entrance hall of Parliament House after she delivered her valedictory @AmyRemeikis @murpharoo @GuardianAus #PoliticsLive #auspol @Indigocathy pic.twitter.com/JFBXyn53ol

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Australia budget 2019: Fraser Anning censured as Coalition extends energy payment – politics live

The federal budget is done and the (unofficial) election campaign begins. All the day’s events, live

Penny Wong’s speech on Fraser Anning censure motion

Labor senator and Yawuru man Pat Dodson spoke powerfully about the “Killing times”, Australia’s massacre history, as part of today’s censure motion against Fraser Anning.

Our First Nations people have carried the consequence of murderous prejudice throughout our entwined history.

First Nations peoples in Australia know what it is like to be powerless in the face of hateful prejudice, fanned by the illusion of superiority; and the false courage created by a weapon in their hand and their victims are defenceless.

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Australia federal budget 2019: reaction to Josh Frydenberg’s first budget – as it happened

Australia’s treasurer says the budget is ‘back in the black’. This blog is now closed

And that is where we are going to end tonight, before we all turn into pumpkins.

But don’t worry, we’ll be back early tomorrow morning for all the fallout. Plus, you know, parliament.

Mike Bowers has been out and about:

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Asian stocks slump as US recession fears grip markets

Australian treasury yields hit a record low in a grim portent for the economy, while the Nikkei falls 3% in wider share selloff

Shares in Asia Pacific have slumped after a key market indicator flashed an “amber warning” that the United States is heading for a recession.

Bond yields also continued to fall across the world with Australian 10-year treasury yields falling to a record low on Monday of 1.756% in what analysts see as a strong indicator of a downturn hitting the resource-rich country.

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New rules for job seekers prompt warning about another ‘robodebt debacle’

Mutual obligation overhaul welcomed but government urged not to rely on ‘automated compliance’

The government’s proposed changes to how job seekers are made to look for work while receiving welfare have been mostly welcomed by stakeholders – although it’s also been warned against creating another “robodebt” scenario through an overreliance on automation.

Kelly O’Dwyer announced the biggest overhaul in mutual obligation requirements for 20 years on Wednesday, with the government to free job seekers from having to apply for 20 positions a month, as well as allowing job hunters to look for work online.

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Australian house prices down in every capital city except Adelaide and Hobart

ABS data shows capital city prices fell 2.4% in December quarter and 5.1% over 2018

Home prices across Australia’s capital cities fell by 2.4% in the three months to December, trimming the total value of the country’s dwellings to $6.7tn.

Prices fell 5.1% across the whole of 2018, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics’ Residential Property Price Index, released on Tuesday.

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Muffin Break faces backlash after boss says millennials won’t do unpaid work

Uproar comes as parliamentary inquiry into Australian franchise sector prepares final report

The cafe chain Muffin Break is facing a backlash from customers after its general manager said that entitled millennials weren’t willing to do unpaid work to get ahead.

Natalie Brennan told News Corp there was “nobody walking in my door asking for an internship, work experience or unpaid work”.

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Medical evacuation bill still alive with Phelps open to amendments – politics live

Key crossbencher Kerryn Phelps indicates she would consider Labor’s changes to the medevac legislation. All the day’s events, live

The PMO has released the transcript of Scott Morrison’s doorstop this morning:

JOURNALIST: Prime minister, if you lose the medevac bill today, why should you not drive to Government House and call an election?

You may remember from Luke’s report yesterday, that David de Garis declined to answer how he found out about the AWU raid. Looks like shiz is about to get reeeal interesting in the federal court.

Justice Bromberg has ruled Michaelia Cash's former media adviser David De Garis will have to give evidence about who tipped him off that federal police were set to raid the AWU's offices. #auspol

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Labor caucus signs off on medical evacuations bill – as it happened

Labor has been holding talks all day and has agreed on three principles. All the day’s events, live

And that is where we are going to call it quits tonight.

But fear not – we’ll be back in about 12 hours. It is going to be that sort of year, me thinks.

Scott Morrison and Marise Payne will hold a press conference at 8.45 tonight to talk about Hakeem al-Araibi.


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Stand by for Liberal fightback as Labor steals march in marginals

Party will rally its base and harvest undecided voters by banging the drum on Labor’s tax measures

This weekend, I think it’s productive to take you into the world of Coalition MPs as they pack their bags anticipating the return of federal parliament next week.

The parliamentary weeks show the Morrison government at its most vulnerable because the Coalition no longer commands a majority in either chamber, but it’s not the resumption of parliament many MPs are fretting about.

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