How UK government misrepresented Covid projections – explained

No 10 has admitted an ‘error’ in the way data was presented to make case for second lockdown

The UK Statistics Authority has rebuked the government over its lack of transparency around projected Covid-19 deaths and hospital admissions, saying it could cast doubt over official figures.

A range of estimates were used to make the case for a second English lockdown in a press conference on 31 October. However, the UKSA said “the data and assumptions for this model had not been shared transparently”, potentially undermining confidence in official figures.

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France reports record 60,486 new cases; Russia saw 9,798 deaths in September – as it happened

France’s new infections more than 2,000 higher than previous record; Italy registers 37,809 new cases; Russia says Covid was main cause in 5,199 cases. This blog is now closed

NSW has reported one new case of locally transmitted Covid-19 in the 24 hours to 8pm last night.

Four cases were also reported in overseas travellers in hotel quarantine, bringing the total number of cases in NSW to 4,270.

Dr Michael Douglas provides a #COVID19 update for Saturday 7 November 2020. pic.twitter.com/T2q5LFhLy1

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Coronavirus live news: mink-related strains infect 214 people in Denmark; Sweden hits record case high

One of Danish mink strains prompts country to cull all its mink; Sweden registers 4,697 new infections, highest since pandemic began

The Kremlin has said it is early to judge how effective Russia’s coronavirus restrictions are without lockdowns, as the country reported a record daily number of new Covid-19 infections.

Speaking to reporters on Friday, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that the increase in coronavirus cases to a daily high of 20,582 was alarming and that authorities would take action depending on how the situation developed.

New coronavirus restrictions came into force in Italy on Friday but from pavements dotted with coffee drinkers to lines of striking taxi drivers, the picture on the streets was different from the ghostly scenes of the first lockdown, Reuters reports.

The restrictions, which divide the country into three zones according to the severity of the latest outbreak, are less severe than the blanket measures imposed when the pandemic first took hold in March.

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Operation Moonshot: Covid mass-testing trial begins in Liverpool

Asymptomatic people encouraged to get tested as scheme launches amid some confusion

The UK’s first mass-testing trial is under way in Liverpool as part of the government’s Operation Moonshot drive to test up to 10 million people a day.

Six new testing centres opened their doors to Liverpudlians at noon on Friday as the city’s health chief urged the city’s 500,000-strong population to volunteer for a coronavirus test over the next fortnight.

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Gimme shell-ter: Thai hermit crabs face housing crisis

Population of crustaceans at one national park has exploded amid drop in tourist numbers

Hermit crab numbers in southern Thailand have boomed as foreign tourists have stayed away – so much so that the national park authority are appealing for the public to donate extra shells for them to live in.

The population of the crustaceans, which protect themselves by wearing and living inside the discarded shells of other animals, has exploded on some islands in the Mu Koh Lanta national park, and marine biologists believe the lack of tourists could be a factor.

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Danish Covid mink cull and future disease fears will kill fur trade, say farmers

Mutation that led to government order fuels debate about future of fur and safety of farms

John Papsø is devastated. You can hear it in his voice over the phone from Jutland. Like every other fur farmer in Denmark, he has 10 days to kill his mink.

“It’s horrible. I’m not even sure it’s dawned on me how grave the consequences will be for us. We are shellshocked. I was up at 4am because I couldn’t sleep. I’ve been pacing up and down the floor, and I’ve cried. It’s a state of shock,” said Papsø, who has more 30,000 mink on his farm.

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UK and others look for lessons from Slovakia’s Covid mass-testing project

Downing Street sent advisers before UK’s large-scale testing programme in Liverpool

Authorities in Slovakia say they hope a nationwide programme in which two-thirds of the country’s population were tested for Covid-19 in just two days last weekend will halve the number of cases of the virus in the country.

The Slovak testing programme has drawn interest from across Europe, as debates continue about whether or not blanket testing is the best way to fight coronavirus. A Downing Street team travelled to Slovakia last weekend to witness the testing, keen to draw lessons before a mass testing programme due to be launched in Liverpool this weekend.

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Victoria’s hotel quarantine program revealed to cost $195m – as it happened

Four new coronavirus cases recorded in NSW southern highlands as Victoria quarantine inquiry delivers interim report. This blog is now closed

That’s it for tonight, thanks for reading. To recap today’s developments:

The chief of the defence force, Angus Campbell, has released a statement about the inquiry into alleged war crimes by Australian special forces in Afghanistan.

Campbell said he received the Afghanistan inquiry report today, which examined the conduct of elite Australian forces in more than 55 incidents of alleged unlawful killings between 2005 and 2016.

Today I have received the Afghanistan Inquiry report from the Inspector-General of the Australian Defence Force (IGADF).

The independent inquiry was commissioned by Defence in 2016 after rumours and allegations emerged relating to possible breaches of the Law of Armed Conflict by members of the Special Operations Task Group in Afghanistan over the period 2005 to 2016.

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UK coronavirus live: Boris Johnson holds news briefing on first day of England’s new lockdown

Latest updates: PM gives televised address after Sunak extends furlough until end of March

Q: What is your response to concerns about the data presented by government? (See 4.11pm.)

Johnson says the government is happy to share the data it has.

Q: Won’t we have to live with restrictions for some time?

Stevens says the NHS is prepared for coronavirus.

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US election 2020: Joe Biden holds lead over Donald Trump in tense wait for results – live

The Guardian’s Nina Lakhani reports from Northampton county:

Allegany county, home to Pennsylvania’s second biggest city of Pittsburgh, has paused all counting until tomorrow morning due to a legal challenge over 29,000 ballots.

We are also getting some more numbers from Nevada’s rural counties, and Joe Biden’s lead has shrunk slightly to about 11,500 votes.

Lyon, too, not moving dial much.

Shows you disproportionate impact of Clark.

Lyon and Elko are two of larger rural counties.

Biden by 11.5K

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Covid immune response faster and stronger post-infection, scientists say

Strongest evidence yet found of sustained defence in people who recover from coronavirus

Scientists have found the strongest evidence yet that people who recover from Covid may mount a much faster and more effective defence against the infection if they encounter the virus again.

Researchers at Rockefeller University in New York found that the immune system not only remembered the virus but improved the quality of protective antibodies after an infection had passed, equipping the body to unleash a swift and potent attack if the virus invaded a second time.

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Denmark tightens lockdown in north over mink Covid outbreak

Twelve people infected so far with new strain against which vaccines may be ineffective

An outbreak among farmed mink of a mutant form of Covid-19 with the potential to be resistant to future vaccines has led to the Danish government bringing in tougher lockdown measures in parts of the country.

The measures were announced following the discovery of a new strain of the disease in animals bred for fur in the country’s northern regions.

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Future market for Covid vaccines ‘could be worth more than $10bn a year’

Analysts estimate revenue generated, assuming an annual jab at an average price of $20

The future market for Covid-19 vaccines could be worth more than $10bn (£7.6bn) in annual revenues for pharmaceutical companies, according to industry experts, even though some drugmakers have pledged to provide their vaccines on a not-for-profit basis during this pandemic.

The calculations by analysts at Morgan Stanley and Credit Suisse assume people will need to be vaccinated every year, similar to the traditional flu jab, with an average price of $20 for a Covid-19 vaccine dose. Prices range from $3 a dose to $37.

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Rishi Sunak announces extension of UK’s coronavirus furlough scheme – video

The chancellor has announced that the government will extend the UK's furlough scheme until March as the second wave of Covid-19 infections and new lockdown threaten to push up unemployment. In a major climbdown, Rishi Sunak said the Treasury would continue to pay 80% of workers’ wages

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Coronavirus live news: Italy reports 445 new deaths, highest daily toll since end of April

Daily Italian total comes as Piedmont, Calabria, Lombardy and Aosta Valley face new restrictions from Friday; three-week restrictions in Greece

The head of France’s public health service has said the coronavirus crisis in the country is getting worse and every day in the fight to slow the spread of infections counts.

“We’re facing a very high wave (of infections),” Jérôme Salomon told a news conference. “The epidemic is progressing. We must all slow the spread together.”

Salomon: "The situation is deteriorating. Every day counts. We have to break the chain of this epidemic. Each of us must act to put a brake on the virus." He is outlining the health safety measures. "The slightest doubt, take a test."

Greece has reported 2,917 new coronavirus cases, hitting a new daily peak hours after authorities announced a second nationwide lockdown is going into effect this Saturday, 7 November.

Thursday’s cases follow on the 2,646 cases reported on Wednesday, which was a new record. Authorities said infections have risen 20% in recent days.

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Australia news live: Victoria and NSW report no new Covid cases as Queensland pushed to open border

Border restrictions continue to be eased as Australian politicians respond to US election result. Follow latest updates

The best doughnut, is a jam doughnut, followed closely by cinnamon.

Both fresh, of course.

Related: How doughnuts became Australia's symbol of Covid hope

News Hub reports New Zealand’s US ambassador has commented on the election. As government employees, ambassadors are prevented from indicating political views (despite being political appointments) but it looks like Scott Brown, for one, is feeling confident enough in the result to be a little honest.

From News Hub’s report:

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Tiny air pollution rise linked to 11% more Covid-19 deaths – study

Evidence is now strong enough that preventive action should be taken, scientists say

A small rise in people’s long-term exposure to air pollution is associated with an 11% increase in deaths from Covid-19, research has found. Another recent study suggests that 15% of all Covid-19 deaths around the world are attributable to dirty air.

The available data only allows correlations to be established and further work is needed to confirm the connections, but the researchers said the evidence was now strong enough that levels of dirty air must be considered a key factor in handling coronavirus outbreaks.

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Denmark announces cull of 15 million mink over Covid mutation fears

Mutated virus infects 12 humans, sparking concerns that effectiveness of future vaccine could be affected

The world’s largest mink producer, Denmark, says it plans to cull more than 15 million of the animals, due to fears that a Covid-19 mutation moving from mink to humans could jeopardise future vaccines.

At a press conference on Wednesday, the Danish prime minister, Mette Frederiksen, said 12 people are already infected with the mutated virus and that the mink are now considered a public health risk.

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