Category Archives: Middle East and North Africa

Tuesday briefing: What you need to know about Trump’s declaration of peace between Israel and Iran

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In today’s newsletter: The US president responds to Iran’s limited retaliation by celebrating the end of the war, with Israel confirming agreement to proposal

Good morning. After the United States attacked Iranian nuclear sites early on Sunday, the question was how Tehran would respond. Last night, we saw the beginnings of the answer – and, at least according to Donald Trump, the end of it.

The retaliation came in the form of ballistic missile attacks on a US base in Qatar. While the Iranian authorities called the operation a “mighty and successful response”, no Americans were harmed – apparently by design. Trump described it as a “very weak response”, suggested that the Iranians had “gotten it all out of their ‘system’”, and added: “CONGRATULATIONS WORLD, IT’S TIME FOR PEACE!”

Protest | UK home secretary Yvette Cooper has vowed to ban Palestine Action under anti-terrorism laws, after activists from the group broke into RAF Brize Norton and spray-painted two military planes. PA’s lawyers said that Cooper’s proposal was an attack on freedom of expression and assembly.

Politics | Labour MPs have launched a significant rebellion against the government’s ​benefit cuts with an amendment that could kill its ​welfare bill, spearheaded by senior select committee chairs and which sources say could be signed by up to 100 MPs.

NHS | UK health secretary Wes Streeting has launched a national investigation into “systemic” failures in NHS maternity services in England, saying “maternity units are failing, hospitals are failing, trusts are failing, regulators are failing” and there is “too much passing the buck”.

Ukraine | Volodymyr Zelenskyy described Russia, Iran and North Korea as a “coalition of murderers” during a visit to London, where he held talks with Kier Starmer on how to put further pressure on Moscow to end the war. Ukraine’s president has accused Tehran of being complicit in Russia’s invasion.

Music | U2 guitarist The Edge has officially become an Irish citizen, 62 years after moving from Britain to Ireland, in a step he said was “long overdue”.

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Australian passenger disruption as airlines delay or cancel flights after Iran’s attack on US base in Qatar

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Foreign affairs minister Penny Wong said there had been ‘disruptions to flights with temporary airspace closures in the region’

The Albanese government and airlines are warning passengers in Australia of flight delays and disruptions after Iran’s strike on a US base in Qatar resulted in several countries closing their airspace.

In a post to X on Tuesday morning, the foreign affairs minister, Penny Wong, said there had been “disruptions to flights with temporary airspace closures in the region”.

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Airlines pay the price as no-go airspace increases due to global conflicts

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US strikes on Iran are adding to the pressure on carriers, which are having to avoid war-torn regions, lengthening routes and pushing up costs

With barely 48 hours elapsed since the US launched strikes against Iran, the swift resumption of near-normal service circumnavigating the war zone underlines that few crises, short of the global pandemic, have stopped airlines and their passengers flying for long.

British Airways had been planning to restart flights to the Middle East cities of Doha and Dubai again, after cancelling departures from Heathrow at the weekend. However, on Monday evening Qatar temporarily closed its airspace again as Iran launched a missile attack on US bases in the country.

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Oil prices sink after Iranian strike on US airbase reduces fears of market disruption

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Crude oil prices dropped by 7% on hopes that the conflict would not immediately disrupt region’s oil supplies

Oil prices dropped sharply after Iran’s retaliatory missile strike on a US airbase reduced concern that the country was poised to strain energy markets by closing off a vital trade route.

Crude oil prices sank by 7% on Monday, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures dropping to $68.51, as the Iranian action on the Al Udeid base in Qatar raised hopes that the conflict would not immediately disrupt oil supplies from the region.

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Trump’s war with Iran signals perilous shift from showman to strongman

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The emergence of Hawk Trump dismayed some of his Maga base but students of US adventurism were unsurprised

So the military parade that brought tanks to the streets of Washington on Donald Trump’s birthday was more than just an authoritarian ego trip. It was a show of strength and statement of intent.

Exactly a week later, sporting a “Make America great again” (Maga) cap in the situation room, the American president ordered the biggest US military intervention in decades as more than 125 aircraft and 75 weapons – including 14 bunker-busting bombs – struck three Iranian nuclear sites. Trump called it a “spectacular military success” – but it remains unclear how much damage had actually been inflicted.

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David Lammy refuses to say if UK supported US strikes on Iran nuclear facilities

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UK foreign secretary also sidesteps questions on legality of strikes and Donald Trump’s ‘regime change’ post

The UK foreign secretary has repeatedly refused to say if the UK supported the US military strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities on Saturday or whether they were legal.

Interviewed on BBC Radio 4’s Today programme on Monday for the first time since the US launched airstrikes on three Iranian nuclear facilities, David Lammy also sidestepped the question of whether he supported recent social media posts by Donald Trump that seemed to favour regime change in Tehran, saying that in all his discussions in the White House the sole focus had been on military targets.

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From shipping, to proxies, to targeting US bases, Iran’s options to strike back are limited

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Trump has warned of broader US involvement in Israel’s war if Iran attempts to strike back against US military sites in the region

Iran had sought to deter Donald Trump from joining Israel’s bombing campaign with dire threats of retaliation, but its options now are limited and fraught with risk.

Iranian officials have said specifically that US ships and military bases would be targeted, but much of the capacity it had relied on as a deterrent has been stripped away over the past few days by Israeli strikes. Those strikes however, have focused on long-range ballistic missile launchers. Iran still has a formidable arsenal of shorter-range missiles and drones.

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Israel’s appetite for war in Gaza threatens its relationship with the European Union

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Scale of death and destruction in Gaza, and the violence of settlers in the West Bank, has shifted public opinion in the EU

In Israel, it can seem like only one other place really matters. Washington DC is on the other side of the world but provides Israel with weapons, the backing of the most powerful military in the world, and a critical diplomatic shield in forums like the United Nations.

Yet the country’s economy is bound far more closely to Europe than to the United States. A third of its trade is with the European Union, key academic work is supported by grants from the EU’s multi-billion dollar Horizon research fund, and it is the top destination for Israelis who want to travel.

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‘A shell fell metres away’: one man’s attempt to reach GHF food hub in Gaza

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Abdullah Ahmed was hit by shrapnel while on a desperate mission to feed his family

Just after midnight on Thursday morning, Abdullah Ahmed left his sleeping wife and children in their small and crowded home in the battered al-Bureij camp in central Gaza and headed north. The 31-year-old vegetable seller had heard that the nearby aid distribution site recently opened by the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF), a secretive Israeli- and US-backed private organisation that began operations in the territory last month, would be handing out food at 2am.

To get there early and maximise his chance of grabbing a box of flour, oil, beans and other basics, Ahmed and some friends set out across the dangerous rubble-strewn roads.

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Iran’s proxy militias may be unable to help if Tehran opts to hit back at US

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Weakening of ‘axis of resistance’ forces leaves Iran with limited options if it chooses to retaliate

Iran’s proxy militias across the Middle East have yet to retaliate for the overnight strikes against the Islamic Republic and are sending mixed signals about their willingness to strike US targets – or even Israel – in the coming days.

The apparent reluctance or inability of such groups to come to Iran’s aid will limit Tehran’s options if decision-makers there opt to escalate the conflict with the US.

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How effective was the US attack on Iran’s nuclear sites? A visual guide

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Trump claims the assault ‘totally obliterated’ the key facilities, but what do we know about its impact?

Donald Trump was quick to claim that US strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities had “completely and totally obliterated” them. Still, it remains unclear how much physical damage has been done or what the longer-term impact might be on Iran’s nuclear programme.

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Global alarm at US strikes on Iran amid fears conflict could spiral out of control

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Politicians express ‘grave concern’ and urge all parties to de-escalate and return to talks on Iran’s nuclear programme

Nations in the Middle East and beyond responded with alarm after US strikes on Iranian nuclear sites as the EU and the UN called for immediate diplomacy, with fears mounting that the war could trigger a wider escalation that could spiral out of control.

Gulf states, who historically have been regional rivals with nearby Iran and critical of its nuclear ambitions, expressed serious concern at the US strikes, amid concerns of retaliation against US military bases hosted in their countries.

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Trump raises specter of further attacks against Iran after US military operation

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President warned that Tehran must start peace negotiations with Israel and stop enriching uranium

Fresh from ordering military strikes on Iran, Donald Trump on Saturday raised the specter of further attacks against Iran if its leadership did not engage in peace talks in a sweeping and at times ominous televised late night address delivered from the White House.

The remarks suggested that the president, who has repeatedly said he wanted to bring peace to global conflicts, at least partly viewed the strikes against Iran’s enrichment facilities as a tactic to force negotiations – just days after he had suggested he would given Iran two weeks before deciding on an attack.

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Trump’s inner circle shifted view to support limited, one-off strike on Iran nuclear sites

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As Trump considered striking Iran, some advisers adjusted public arguments to suggest quick bombing run

Donald Trump’s move to bomb three nuclear sites in Iran came as those inside his orbit who were opposed to US intervention in the conflict shifted their views in favor of a limited and one-off strike.

The US president had been under immense pressure from Republican anti-interventionists not to engage in any action against Iran out of concern that the US might be dragged into a protracted engagement to topple Iran’s leadership, or that strikes on facilities might have limited success.

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Cheering support and instant condemnation: US lawmakers respond to attack on Iran

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Ro Khanna and Bernie Sanders denounced the decision to launch attack, while most Republicans praised the action

American politicians reacted to the news of the US bombing of nuclear targets in Iran with a mix of cheering support and instant condemnation, reflecting deep divisions in the country that cross party lines as Washington grapples with yet another military intervention overseas.

Donald Trump announced on Saturday night that the US had completed strikes on three nuclear sites in Iran, directly joining Israel’s effort this month to destroy the country’s nuclear program.

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Outcome of Israel’s war with Iran is uncertain even if US joins conflict

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American involvement is not guaranteed to secure Israel’s objectives – and may lead to unintended consequences

Israel’s assault on Iran, including its nuclear and ballistic weapons programme, is unlikely to secure its long-term strategic objectives, even if Benjamin Netanyahu manages to persuade the Trump administration into joining the conflict in the coming days and weeks, experts have said.

According to diplomats, military specialists and security analysts, Israel – and its prime minister – is likely to face mounting headwinds in the campaign, amid warnings that it risks dangerously destabilising the region.

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Iran says diplomacy with US only possible if Israeli aggression stops

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Foreign minister Abbas Araghchi says he supports more talks with European counterparts despite lack of progress

Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, has said that his country is ready for more diplomacy with the US only if Israel’s war on his country is brought to an end “and the aggressor is held accountable for the crimes he committed”.

After several hours of talks with European foreign ministers in Geneva on Friday, there was no sign of a diplomatic breakthrough – or a resumption of negotiations with the US.

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EU cites ‘indications’ Israel is breaching human rights obligations over conduct in Gaza

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Leaked document marks significant moment in relations with ally but stops short of calling for immediate sanctions

The EU has said “there are indications” that Israel is in breach of human rights obligations over its conduct in Gaza, but stopped short of calling for immediate sanctions.

“There are indications that Israel would be in breach of its human rights obligations under article 2 of the EU-Israel association agreement,” states a leaked document from the EU’s foreign policy service, seen by the Guardian.

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Macron lays out broad European offer for Iran to end war with Israel

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Proposal would cover uranium enrichment and ballistic missile programmes and aim to end terrorist funding

Europe is to make Iran a comprehensive offer to end its war with Israel that would include an Iranian move to zero uranium enrichment, restrictions on its ballistic missile programme and an end to Tehran’s funding of terrorist groups, Emmanuel Macron has said.

The proposals are surprisingly broad, spanning a range of complex issues beyond Iran’s disputed nuclear programme, and are likely to complicate any solution unless an interim agreement can be agreed.

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British nationals who want to leave Israel to be offered flights to UK, says David Lammy

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Foreign secretary says government will provide charter flights from Tel Aviv when airspace reopens

British nationals who want to leave Israel will be offered charter flights from Tel Aviv as soon as airspace reopens, the government has said.

With the conflict with Iran continuing, Whitehall officials have been working to organise escape routes for the thousands of British and dual nationals in Israel.

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