Reform UK leader, who is in the US for Trump’s inauguration, says early election is ‘not impossible’

Nigel Farage, the Reform UK leader, thinks that his chances of becoming PM before Donald Trump leaves the White House in January could be as high as 25%. He made the comment in an interview with Dan Walker for 5 News being broadcast tonight. Farage told Walker he did genuinely believe he could be the next PM. And this is what he said when he was asked if that could happen during Trump’s presidency.

Look, Labour have got a whopping great big majority. The only thing that really brings an early election is if we get an economic meltdown.

Now, that is not impossible for two reasons. One, the level of indebtedness is worse than it was in 2008 when we had the big meltdowns. And I think we’ve lived through rocketing stock markets for years. That can’t go on.

For Reform to replace the Tories three things would need to happen. First they would need to sustain their current momentum well into 2025, then there would need to be a tipping point moment when donors, right-wing media and a number of Tory MPs decided to shift support en masse, and then they would have to win more seats in the 2028/2029 election.

The first of these seems fairly likely. The enthusiasm of Reform’s voter base, the weakness of the Tory party, and the media need for narrative all point the same way. The biggest barrier is probably Farage’s ability to manage the negative associations caused by Musk (who is not at all popular in the UK).

It may take a long time but if - and it is a big if - Reform remain a major player in British politics, under the voting system we have, it will ultimately lead to the end of the Tory party as we know it.