Welfare bill climbdown will have ‘a cost’ at budget, says senior minister

Pat McFadden says U-turn will change calculations, as IFS says tax rises in autumn look increasingly likely

There will be “a cost” to the government’s climbdown on welfare changes at the budget, one of Keir Starmer’s senior ministers has said, as a leading fiscal thinktank said new tax rises appeared increasingly likely.

Pat McFadden, the chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster, defended Starmer and the work and pensions secretary, Liz Kendall, after the second reading of the government’s main welfare bill passed its first Commons test only after a central element was removed.

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Wednesday briefing: ​​Has Starmer’s welfare reform bill victory left a fractured Labour party in its wake?

In today’s newsletter: After frantic late negotiations, the government’s welfare overhaul has ​passed – now saving almost none of the money that the government said was crucial to its success

Good morning. To his loveless landslide, Keir Starmer can now add a vapid victory. Last night, the government’s flagship welfare reform bill passed its second reading in the House of Commons by 335 votes to 260 – a majority of 75. But after last-minute concessions from the government to secure the bill’s passage, a set of measures whose intended savings had already fallen from £5bn to £2.5bn a year, now looks like recouping much closer to nothing.

The central climbdown, where plans for deep cuts to the personal independence payment (Pip) in the future were shelved, has been celebrated by disabled people and the charities who represent them. They had feared that the support they rely on was about to be ripped away. But it is also a measure of how disastrous the whole process has been for Starmer.

Israel-Gaza war | Donald Trump says that Israel has accepted conditions of a ceasefire after US-Israeli talks and urged Hamas to agree. The US president did not give details of the terms and there is no indication that Hamas will accept them.

NHS | Three bosses at the hospital where Lucy Letby worked have been arrested on suspicion of gross negligence manslaughter, police have said. The three, who have not been named, were arrested as part of the investigation into the actions of leaders at the Countess of Chester hospital.

UK news | The home secretary is coming under increasing pressure to abandon plans to ban Palestine Action, as UN experts and hundreds of lawyers warned that proscribing the group would conflate protest and terrorism.

US news | The jury in the high-profile federal sex-trafficking and racketeering conspiracy trial of Sean “Diddy” Combs concluded the day without a verdict on Tuesday, unable to come to a decision on one of the five counts. The judge advised the jury to “keep deliberating”.

Extreme heat | Outdoor working has been banned during the hottest parts of the day in more than half of Italy’s regions, as an extreme heatwave that has smashed June temperature records in Spain and Portugal continues to grip large swathes of Europe.

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No 10 guts welfare bill in big new concession as minister says Pip cuts planned for 2026 shelved until after Timms review – UK politics live

Switch to four-point Pip eligibility rule may never happen at all as Stephen Timms says government will ‘remove clause five from the bill’

Compass, the leftwing group urging Labour to be more pluralistic, has put out a statement condemning the UC and Pip bill. Its director, Neal Lawson, said:

If your own friends are telling you to put the brakes on, then something has clearly gone wrong. Despite the government’s line, this legislation does not advance Labour values. It is fundamentally at odds with them, and with the views of the mainstream of the party and civil society.

MPs from across the House, and especially the Labour side, must back Rachael Maskell’s reasoned amendment. This bill’s creation of a three-tiered social security system would condemn thousands to poverty and could lose Labour the next election.

A bill of this magnitude should have been co-produced with disabled people and our organisations from the very start.

Now, ministers scramble to promise ‘consultation’ as one small part of the process. That is too little, too late. Co-production is not a rushed tick-box exercise tagged onto legislation already steaming through Parliament. It means disabled people shaping the system at every step – not just commenting on the detail of changes already baked in.

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Children crossing Channel from France exposed to teargas, report says

NGO says rise in interventions has only increased danger as new data shows at least 15 children died in transit last year

Children and babies coming to the UK on small boats from northern France have been teargassed and subjected to tactics such as the discharge of rubber bullets and the slashing of dinghies with knives, according to a report.

The publication on Tuesday of We Want to Be Safe, by the French non-governmental organisation Project Play, came as the latest figures on daily crossings released by the UK government reached an all-time high of 19,982 for the first six months of the year, a 40% increase compared with the same period last year.

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Fewer pupils in less affluent English schools taking languages, survey finds

Less than half taking foreign languages GCSEs compared with 69% in most prosperous state schools

Ministers must make access to language learning a national priority, experts have said, after research showed that children from more deprived areas of England are disproportionately denied the chance to learn a foreign tongue.

This year’s Language Trends report by the British Council surveyed 1,000 primary, secondary and independent schools and found that the proportion of pupils studying a modern language GCSE in less affluent English state schools was 38% lower than in the most affluent and 12% lower than the average.

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DWP says 150,000 more people pushed into poverty by benefit cuts, not 250,000 as forecast said before U-turn – UK politics live

Analysis says, allowing for concessions to welfare bill announced last week, cuts will still push people into relative poverty

The Department for Work and Pensions has just published an analysis saying that, allowing for the concesssions announced last week, the welfare cuts will still push an extra 150,000 people into relative poverty.

Here is the key chart from the document.

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Lindsey oil refinery owner Prax falls into administration as ministers urged to intervene

Fears over fuel supplies and jobs as Lincolnshire facility handles nearly a tenth of total UK capacity

One of the UK’s largest oil refineries – and the only big one owned by a British company – has collapsed into administration, prompting calls for the government to intervene urgently to protect fuel supplies and jobs.

State Oil, which owns the Prax Lindsey refinery in north Lincolnshire, called in administrators on Monday, Sky News reported first, prompting concern from the trade union Unite.

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Starmer’s disability benefit concessions are not enough, says rebel Labour whip

Exclusive: Vicky Foxcroft, who resigned as whip over welfare bill, urges ministers to work with affected people on changes

The Labour whip who resigned in protest against disability benefit cuts has said Keir Starmer’s concessions do not yet go far enough to win her over, as No 10 launched a fresh attempt to stem the revolt against its welfare bill.

Vicky Foxcroft, who quit her frontbench role over the welfare bill a little more than a week ago, urged the government to work jointly on the changes with disabled people and to publish the review of the system before bringing in cuts.

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Extra cost of being disabled in UK to rise by almost 12% in five years, says Scope report

Estimate by disability charity published on eve of MPs’ vote on restricting welfare payments for new claimants

The extra cost of being disabled is on course to rise by almost 12% to £14,688 in five years, according to a new estimate published on the eve of a controversial vote to restrict welfare payments for new claimants.

A threatened rebellion by more than 120 Labour MPs forced the government into a last-minute climbdown on its welfare bill, by exempting claimants to planned cuts in personal independence payments (Pip), England’s main disability payment.

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Tory MP refers himself to parliamentary watchdog over adviser role

Report in the Times alleges George Freeman was paid by company that helped him write questions to government

A Conservative MP has referred himself to the parliamentary watchdog after it was alleged he was paid by a company that helped him write questions to government.

Former minister George Freeman submitted queries to Labour ministers about the sector the firm operates in, the Times reported.

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Starmer says welfare concessions are ‘common sense’ but dodges funding question – UK politics live

No 10 has offered significant concessions to the rebels, estimated to cost around £3bn a year, amid fears over Tuesday’s vote

Stephen Kinnock, the care minister, was the government voice on the airwaves this morning. Here are the main points he made about the welfare bill U-turn.

Kinnock rejected claims that the U-turn was a sign of weakness. When it was put to him on the Today programme that this move, coming after the U-turns on winter fuel payments and a national inquiry into grooming gangs, showed that if Keir Starmer was pushed, he would give in, Kinnock replied:

I think if you talk to people out there in the country, they respond very positively to politicians listening, engaging, recognising that you don’t get everything right from day one every time, and making the adjustments and the changes that are needed.

And this prime minister will always put the country first. He puts country before party, and he does the right thing for the country.

He defended having a “staggered” approach to changing benefit rules. Asked about the Tory claim that the government was creating a “two-tier benefits system” (see 8.30am), he replied:

Whenever you bring forward change to a complex system, you always have to decide between do you make the change for everybody that’s in that system, in one big move, or do you do it in a more staggered way? What’s clear from the announcement today is that it’s going to be a more staggered process.

He declined to say how much the U-turn would cost. He told Times Radio:

The full details around what we are laying out, what I’ve summarised really today, is going to be laid out in parliament, and then the chancellor will set out the budget in the autumn the whole of the fiscal position and this will be an important part of that.

He said he was now confident that the UC and Pip bill will pass its second reading on Tuesday.

All of the MPs I’ve spoken to who signed the reasoned amendment – MPs from across the party, not just on the left – are sticking to their position because we understand that we are answerable to our constituents.

If the government doesn’t pull the bill, doesn’t consult properly with disabled people and come back to MPs with a serious proposal that protects the dignity of disabled people, I will vote against and I will be far from the only one.

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Keir Starmer says he ‘deeply regrets’ island of strangers speech

Immigration speech was criticised for echoing Enoch Powell’s ‘rivers of blood’ rhetoric

Keir Starmer has said he “deeply regrets” a speech in which he described the UK as being in danger of becoming an island of strangers without tough curbs on immigration.

The prime minister made the remarks in an interview with the Observer, saying he should have read the speech more carefully and “held it up to the light a bit more”.

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Cautious optimism in UK on progress to secure British-Egyptian dissident’s release

Writer’s mother eases hunger strike as Starmer raises Alaa Abd el-Fattah case in phone call with Egypt’s president

The family of Alaa Abd el-Fattah have expressed cautious optimism that progress is being made to secure the British-Egyptian dissident’s release from jail in Cairo after Keir Starmer managed to secure a long-delayed phone call with the Egyptian president, Abdel Fatah al-Sisi, in which the two leaders discussed improving UK-Egypt trade relations.

The call coincided with a decision by Abd el-Fattah’s mother, Laila Soueif, to ease her hunger strike in the hope diplomacy may work. She is on a glucose drip in St Thomas’ hospital in London. The 69-year-old’s decision came after discussions with doctors and her family. She has been on hunger strike for more than 270 days to secure improvement in Abd el-Fattah’s jail conditions or his release.

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Starmer aide Morgan McSweeney under fire after Labour welfare rebellion

Backbenchers feel PM’s chief of staff missed strength of feeling over cuts – and there are deeper tensions at play

Being the prime minister’s right-hand man is a position of extraordinary power and privilege. But when things start to go wrong, you are directly in the line of fire. So has found Morgan McSweeney, the political mastermind credited with helping Keir Starmer win his election landslide, in recent days as the Labour party has collapsed into moral fury over planned welfare cuts.

The softly spoken Irishman, now Starmer’s chief of staff, has become the lightning rod for the frustration of many Labour rebels who backed a wrecking amendment designed to blow up the big welfare bill next week.

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Starmer confirms willingness to make concessions on welfare bill, saying reforms must be fair – UK politics live

‘We want to see reform implemented with Labour values of fairness,’ the PM says

In his final answer Starmer explained how he thought government and business should work together.

A true partnership is not two people or two bodies trying to do the same thing. It’s two people or bodies realising they bring different things to the table.

Government shouldn’t try to run businesses. It’s done that in the past and it doesn’t work particularly well.

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Scientists criticise cut in UK funding for global vaccination group

Five-year £1.25bn pledge to Gavi is 40% cut in real terms, which experts say will cost lives in developing countries

The UK has cut its funding to a leading global vaccination group by a quarter, a move that experts say will directly lead to the avoidable deaths of many thousands of children in developing countries.

The Foreign Office billed the £1.25bn commitment over five years to the Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunisation (Gavi) as a major boost to the group’s work as well as to the UK’s status as a developer of vaccines. A series of aid agencies praised the decision.

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Widespread Labour dissent over welfare bill is sign things are going very badly for Starmer

Prime minister deployed ministers to contain rebellion after more than 100 Labour MPs signed amendment to bill

When a prime minister is forced to deploy his cabinet to try to contain a rebellion, it is not a sign that things are going well. For one with a working majority of 165 MPs, it suggests that things are, in fact, going very badly.

This was the scenario Keir Starmer faced on Tuesday after more than 100 Labour MPs signed an amendment to his welfare bill which could blow up his attempts to reform the disability benefits system.

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Minister defends Liz Kendall’s handling of welfare reform brief despite major rebellion before vote – UK politics live

Pat McFadden insists welfare reform change vote will go ahead as planned but says party will ‘engage with’ rebels

Frances Ryan reports for the Guardian:

Downing Street’s disability cuts will have a “devastating” impact on women’s health and dignity and could breach equality law, the government has been warned.

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UK will commit to spending 5% of GDP on defence by 2035

Keir Starmer says investment in national security will also deepen Britain’s commitment to Nato

Britain will commit to spending 5% of its GDP on defence by 2035 after weeks of diplomatic pressure and intense negotiations with allies.

The decision came as Keir Starmer, the prime minister, prepared to join Nato leaders at a summit dominated by global conflict and expectations of European military self-reliance.

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Ukraine and UK to jointly produce long-range drones, Zelenskyy says

Ukrainian president says two countries will deepen defence cooperation with the objective to ‘stop Russian terror’

Ukraine and the UK are to deepen their defence cooperation by jointly producing long-range drones, Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on Monday after talks with Keir Starmer in Downing Street aimed at forcing Russia to “think about peace”.

Zelenskyy said his main objective was “to save as many lives as possible” and to “stop Russian terror”. Writing on social media, he called for “maximum political and diplomatic coordination” and closer work on “joint defence projects and weapons production”.

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