Thursday briefing: What lies ahead for the US in a second Trump administration

In today’s newsletter: After winning Tuesday’s election, America’s first convicted president will assemble his transition team – here’s what we know so far about his plans

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Kamala Harris conceded the US election to Donald Trump overnight. In a speech at Howard University, the vice-president urged supporters not to lose hope, saying “this is a time to organise, to mobilise and to stay engaged for the sake of freedom and justice and the future that we all know we can build together”. Harris, hoarse from the frenzied campaign that began a little over 100 days ago, contrasted sharply with Trump following his defeat in the 2020 election, which he never formally conceded.

Environment | It is “virtually certain” that 2024 will be the hottest year on record, the European Union’s space programme has found. The prognosis comes the week before diplomats meet at the Cop29 climate summit and a day after a majority of voters in the US, the biggest historical emitter of planet-heating gas, chose to make Donald Trump president.

Middle East | Many Israelis were reeling after Benjamin Netanyahu’s decision to dismiss his popular defence minister, Yoav Gallant, in the midst of a multifront war. The prime minister said he had fired Gallant over what he described a “crisis of trust”. Gallant, a member of Netanyahu’s Likud party and a senior general, has been replaced by the foreign minister, Israel Katz, a Likud lawmaker and loyalist who has little military background.

Politics | The Reform UK MP Lee Anderson has apologised after parliament’s watchdog on bullying and harassment told him to do so for telling a security guard who asked for his ID to “fuck off, everyone opens the door to me”.

Economy | Rachel Reeves has committed not to increase taxes at Labour’s next budget and said the government would need to “live within the means” of her spending plans if public services came under mounting pressure.

Health | Doing just five extra minutes of exercise a day could help lower blood pressure, a study suggests. High blood pressure affects 1.28 billion adults worldwide and is one of the biggest causes of premature death. It can lead to strokes, heart attacks, heart failure, kidney damage and many other health problems, and is often described as a silent killer due to its lack of symptoms.

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Democrats confront fact that Trump’s dark vision prevailed as result sinks in

Trump world was jubilant after his election win, while confusion and foreboding reigned on the other side of America

Millions of Americans faced a transformed country and a rattled world on Wednesday following the realisation of Donald Trump’s stunning return to power.

As the extent of Trump’s victory began to sink in – including clear dominance not only in the electoral college but also probably in the popular vote, with at least 72 million votes cast for him, as well as control of the US Senate – there were expressions of jubilation among the former president’s supporters. The House remained too close to call late on Wednesday, but Republicans projected confidence that they would maintain their narrow majority, giving Trump sweeping power to enact his legislative agenda.

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US elections 2024: control of House remains unclear

Republicans make progress as results are returned, but US may have to wait days to learn chamber’s composition

Republicans have won a majority in the US Senate but control of the US House of Representatives remains unclear on Wednesday evening, with many of the most competitive races still uncalled.

With Donald Trump having won the White House, the stakes for control of the House have grown, since it could serve as either the sole Democratic check on the upcoming Trump presidency, or as the final Republican win that delivers a united pro-Trump government.

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Republicans outline ‘first 100 days’ of Trump presidency – as it happened

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Donald Trump has been elected the 47th president of the United States in a stunning political resurrection that sent shock waves through the country and around the world.

Trump becomes the first convicted criminal to win the White House. At 78 he is also the oldest person ever elected to the office.

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Donald Trump elected US president in stunning political resurrection

Former president defeats Kamala Harris as voters send Republican back to White House for second term

Donald Trump has been elected the 47th president of the United States in a stunning political resurrection that sent shockwaves through America and around the world.

Trump becomes the first convicted criminal to win the White House. At 78 he is also the oldest person ever elected to the office.

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US elections live: Harris makes unexpected stop at DNC headquarters as millions of Americans cast their votes

Harris thanks Democratic staffers in Washington DC and says ‘we have so much work to do’ during phone-banking session

Dispatch from Grand Rapids, Michigan: They just showed a video here of Donald Trump shaving the head of Vince McMahon, the former CEO of WWE, during a wrestling event. It happened in 2007.

Needless to say, Trump hasn’t arrived yet.

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Donald Trump says ‘we made history’ as he closes in on victory with win in Pennsylvania – as it happened

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The state of American democracy and the economy were the top issues on voters’ minds as they cast their ballots in the 2024 presidential election, according to an NBC News exit poll.

The poll’s preliminary results show 35% of voters said democracy mattered most to their vote, while 31% said the economy.

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A polarized America goes to the polls: ‘I’m in a house divided’

In the seven swing states that could decide whether Harris or Trump wins the election, voters feel fought over

America had previously always been “somebody else’s country,” said Christopher La Rose, a health researcher, as he waited just before 7am in Pine Lake, a village that’s too small for postal delivery just outside of Atlanta, Georgia.

But that changed recently for La Rose, who is of Guyanese descent, when he became an American citizen. He had the jitters on Monday night, before using his first-ever vote in a US election to back Kamala Harris.

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US elections 2024: 10 key House races to watch

Democrats only need to flip a handful of seats to get back control of the lower chamber – here’s what to keep an eye on

Much attention has been paid to the historic race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, but the results of down-ballot elections will determine whether the new president will actually be able to implement a legislative agenda next year.

With Republicans defending a narrow majority in the House of Representatives, Democrats only need to flip a handful of seats to wrest back control of the lower chamber, and both parties are going all out to win.

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Trump and Harris scramble to win votes in key states in final day of campaigning

Ex-president hurtles through four rallies across three states as vice-president puts focus on Pennsylvania

Donald Trump began hurtling through four Maga rallies across three battleground states – and delivered a dark and dystopian speech about the supposed “migrant invasion” of murderers and drug dealers – while Kamala Harris put all her last chips on Pennsylvania in a frantic final day of campaigning from both candidates.

With the polls showing the contest essentially deadlocked between two vastly different political visions, both the ex-president and the vice-president were scrambling on Monday to drive home their message. Though early voting has smashed records across the country, there is still everything to play for in cajoling undecided and unengaged voters to the polls on election day.

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When do polls close?

How the electoral college works

Where is abortion on the ballot?

Senate and House races to watch

Lessons from the key swing states

Trump v Harris on key issues

What’s at stake in this election

What to know about the US election

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US elections live updates: Harris and Trump make final pitches in crucial state of Pennsylvania

Judge rejects legal challenge against Musk’s $1m giveaways; Harris vows to be ‘a president for all Americans’

Here is a look back at some of the more memorable pictures of the 2024 US presidential campaign:

In an interview with NBC News, Donald Trump did not rule out banning certain vaccines if he was elected to a second presidential term.

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Secretaries of state ask social media companies for moderation plans on election day

Democratic top elections officials are concerned about inflammatory and AI-generated content

A group of Democratic secretaries of state are calling on social media companies to detail their plans to moderate inflammatory content and artificial intelligence on their platforms during and after election day.

Seven secretaries of state – representing Maine, Rhode Island, Illinois, Oregon, Vermont, Washington and New Mexico – sent the letters to Google, X and Meta on Friday. Secretaries of state typically play some role in overseeing elections in their states.

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Trump refutes Iowa poll showing Harris ahead in red state: ‘It’s not even close!’

Selzer poll, widely respected organization with good record in Iowa, shows vice-president leading Trump 47% to 44%

Donald Trump has passionately disputed a shock Iowa poll that found Kamala Harris leading the former president in the typically red state 47% to 44%.

“No President has done more for FARMERS, and the Great State of Iowa, than Donald J. Trump,” Trump said in a post on his Truth Social network on Sunday morning. “In fact, it’s not even close! All polls, except for one heavily skewed toward the Democrats by a Trump hater who called it totally wrong the last time, have me up, BY A LOT.”

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Can you ‘undo’ political polarization? Left and right might be closer than we think, study finds

University of California, Berkeley, research shows people are committed to protecting democratic institutions despite differences

You know that uncle whose political takes threaten to turn family gatherings into food fights? Don’t decline his Thanksgiving invitation just yet. When it comes to support for democracy, left and right in America are much closer than you might think.

As a historic US election approaches, both sides see each other as working to upend democracy. But it’s our assumptions about our political opponents – rather than their actual views – that drive polarization, according to new research. And if Democrats want to prove to voters on the fence that they’re acting in good faith, they might want to consider a surprising “grand gesture”.

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Harris grabs unexpected last-minute lead over Trump in Iowa poll

In shocking result that could reshape the race, ex-president falls three points behind in a state he won in 2016 and 2020

A poll in Iowa that has unexpectedly put Kamala Harris ahead of Donald Trump in what was previously expected to be a safe state for the Republicans has sent shockwaves through America’s poll-watchers.

The Selzer poll carried out for the Des Moines Register newspaper showed Harris ahead of her Republican rival by three points.

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Michigan congresswoman Rashida Tlaib declines to endorse Kamala Harris

The Palestinian American ‘squad’ member has been critical of Harris and the Democratic party’s inaction on Gaza

Michigan congresswoman Rashida Tlaib declined to endorse Kamala Harris at a union rally in Detroit, where the war in Gaza is the top issue for the largest block of Arab American voters in the country.

Tlaib, the first Palestinian American woman to serve in Congress, is the only one of the so-called leftist “Squad” that has not endorsed the Democrat candidate. The other three members – Ayanna Pressley of Massachusetts, Ilhan Omar of Minnesota and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York – endorsed Harris in July.

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US politics live: Women’s marches hit the streets in support of Harris as both candidates target east coast – as it happened

Harris leading Trump in new Iowa poll in startling reversal, pulling ahead of Trump 47% to 44%

Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump head to North Carolina on Saturday to try to clinch support in the south-eastern battleground state just three days before Tuesday’s US presidential election.

It will be the fourth day in a row that vice-president Harris and former president Trump visit the same state on the same day, underlining the critical importance of the seven states likely to decide the race, which opinion polls show to be on a knife’s edge, Reuters reported.

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Supreme court rejects Republican bid to throw out thousands of Pennsylvania ballots; Harris says Trump’s Cheney remarks ‘disqualifying’ – live

Justices rule swing state can count provisional ballots of voters whose mail-in ballots were rejected; Harris condemns Republican nominee’s gun remarks

Joe Biden has released the following statement on the latest job report:

In October, unemployment was unchanged at 4.1%, but the devastation from Hurricanes Helene and Milton, and new strike activity, lowered job growth. Job growth is expected to rebound in November as our hurricane recovery and rebuilding efforts continue. In addition, I want to congratulate the leadership of the Machinists and Boeing for negotiating a new contract proposal that will be voted on by union members. Machinists at Boeing have sacrificed over the years and deserve a strong contract.

America’s economy remains strong, with 16m jobs created since I took office, including an average 180,000 jobs created each month over the last year – more than the year before the pandemic. We have the lowest average unemployment rate of any administration in 50 years, our economy has grown more than any presidential term this century, incomes are up $4,000 over prices, and inflation has fallen nearly to its 2% target.

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How will the outcome of the US election affect Australia, Aukus and our region?

Australia’s future is closely tied to the future occupant of the White House. What impacts could a Kamala Harris or Donald Trump presidency have?

More people have gone to a ballot box in 2024 than in any other year in human history. Billions have cast votes across scores of countries, including some of the largest, most powerful democracies on Earth.

But America’s remains the world’s global election, the most forensically examined, the most consequential all over the world. America matters.

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Jennifer Lopez campaigns with Harris in Las Vegas – as it happened

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A lot of money has been spent on this year’s elections.

Only 150 billionaire families have contributed $1.9bn in support of presidential and congressional candidates, according to a new report from Americans for Tax Fairness.

Of this giant figure 72% went to support Republicans compared with the 22% spent on Democrats.

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