Category Archives: Population

Pupil numbers in England set to shrink by almost 1 million in 10 years

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Government forecast anticipates 12% decline, mainly due to fewer births, with surplus school places in years ahead

England’s school population is set to shrink by almost a million children over the next 10 years, according to the government’s latest data, raising the prospect of surplus places and school closures in some areas of the country in the years ahead.

Department for Education figures reveal that predicted pupil numbers, already in marked decline according to earlier modelling, have had to be revised down further in line with projections of fewer births than expected.

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England and Wales population rises to record 59.5 million

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Census figure is up 3.5m on 2011, with more over-65s than under-15s, and gives UK population of 67m

The population of England and Wales has hit a historic high of 59,597,300, according to the first results from the 2021 census, with a 20% surge in the number of people aged 65 and over in the last decade.

The count was based on questionnaires filled out by households on Sunday 21 March 2021 and is an 6.3% increase on the 2011 figure of 56,075,912 – an extra 3.5 million people.

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Census 2021: Australia’s millennial generation is overtaking baby boomers, new ABS data shows

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Data released on Tuesday shows a snapshot of the nation during Covid-19 and reveals insights into religion, identity and how Australians live

New data released on Tuesday from the latest census shows that Australia’s millennial generation is becoming the nation’s largest, displacing the postwar baby boomers.

Both demographic groups comprise 5.4 million people but the 2021 statistics reflect a diminishing number of “boomers” compared with the 2016 survey.

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‘Stop nagging!’: why China’s generation Z is resisting marriage and babies

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Young Chinese women want to get educated and prioritise their careers, a trend that has alarmed the authorities battling a demographic crisis

Early this month, China’s state news agency Xinhua posted a video reminding young Chinese men born in the year 2000 that they are now finally eligible to get married. “Post 00s have reached legal marriage age,” it declared.

The hashtag swiftly popped up in the “top-searched list” of Weibo hot topics, but many read it as the government’s attempt to put pressure on them. “Who dares to get married these days? Don’t we need to make money?” one questioned. “Stop nagging me!” said another.

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By 2050, a quarter of the world’s people will be African – this will shape our future | Edward Paice

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Africa’s unprecedented population growth will impact geopolitics, global trade, migration and almost every aspect of life. It’s time for a reimagining of the continent

In 2022 the world’s population will pass 8 billion. It has increased by a third in just two decades. By 2050, there will be about 9.5 billion of us on the planet, according to respected demographers. This makes recent comments by Elon Musk baffling. According to him, “the low birthrate and the rapidly declining birthrate” is “one of the biggest risks to civilisation”.

Fertility rates in Europe, North America and east Asia are generally below 2.1 births per woman, the level at which populations remain stable at constant mortality rates. The trajectory in some countries is particularly arresting. The birthrate in Italy is the lowest it has ever been in the country’s history. South Korea’s fertility rate has been stuck below one birth per woman for decades despite an estimated $120bn (£90bn) being spent on initiatives aimed at raising it. Japan started the century with 128 million citizens but is on course to have only 106 million by 2050. China’s population will peak at 1.45 billion in 2030, but if it proves unable to raise its fertility rate, the world’s most populous country could end the century with fewer than 600 million inhabitants. This is the “big risk” alluded to by Musk. The trouble is, his statement seems to imply that “civilisation” does not include Africa.

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The Guardian view on China’s baby bust: let people choose | Editorial

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Beijing faces a demographic timebomb, with population growth at its lowest for six decades

“Of all things in the world, people are the most precious,” Mao Zedong said soon after taking power, believing China needed more soldiers and workers. The advent of peace saw the population rocket from 540 million to 969 million over the next three decades. Authorities abruptly switched to curbing births and brutally implementing the “one-child” policy.

These days, most Chinese couples are curtailing their families – or going without – by choice. The population now stands at 1.4 billion; a sixth of the global total. But last year’s birthrate was the lowest since 1949, and the rate of population growth the lowest since the Great Famine six decades ago. The pandemic has seen dramatic drops in births in many places. But in China, the shift is part of a pronounced long-term trend. Several experts believe that last year marked the population peak.

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China: editorial says Communist party members must have three children

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Article that says ‘no party member should use any excuse’ to have only one or two children goes viral then disappears

An editorial in a Chinese state-run news website has suggested Communist party members are obliged to have three children for the good of the country, as Beijing seeks to address plummeting birthrates.

The editorial, which was first published last month, went viral this week and drew sharp reaction from Chinese internet users, with millions of shares, views and comments. As the wave of reaction grew, the original article disappeared from the website.

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Chinese birthrate falls to lowest since 1978

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Official statistics show 8.5 births per 1,000 people in 2020, the first time under 10 in decades

China’s birthrate has plummeted to its lowest level since 1978 as the government struggles to stave off a looming demographic crisis.

Data released by the country’s national bureau of statistics shows there were 8.5 births per 1,000 people in 2020, the first time in decades that the figure has fallen below 10. The statistical yearbook, released at the weekend, said the natural rate of population growth – taking in births and deaths – was at a new low of 1.45.

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Is our planet overpopulated? We ask the expert

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Global development lecturer Heather Alberro on whether rising birth rates are really to blame for the climate crisis

Whether it’s Meghan and Harry limiting themselves to two children, or Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez discussing the “legitimate” concern of parenting through climate catastrophe, the ethical question of whether to add more people to the planet has touched society. But is the world overpopulated in the way we think? I asked Heather Alberro, lecturer in global sustainable development at Nottingham Trent University.

Where did the idea of overpopulation come from?
It started with 19th-century economist Thomas Malthus, who argued that population growth would always outstrip available resources. That’s known as a “Malthusian argument”.

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New Zealand rated best place to survive global societal collapse

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Study citing ‘perilous state’ of industrial civilisation ranks temperate islands top for resilience

New Zealand, Iceland, the UK, Tasmania and Ireland are the places best suited to survive a global collapse of society, according to a study.

The researchers said human civilisation was “in a perilous state” due to the highly interconnected and energy-intensive society that had developed and the environmental damage this had caused.

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Why China and east Asia’s ageing population threatens global Covid recovery

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Analysis: Beijing’s census data confirms trend reflected across a region that is looked to as engine of post-pandemic growth

For many years China watchers have been concerned that its ageing population will slow economic growth, causing social as well as political problems. So today’s census data may be an alarm bell for leaders in Beijing.

But it is not just China that is witnessing this trajectory. Most countries in east Asia, even without fertility control policies such as China’s one-child or two-child policies, share the same predicament: how to continue economic growth while encouraging people to have more children?

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As the global family shrinks, migrants and the planet benefit

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Figures from the US and Japan reveal sharp declines in birthrates, and even China may have peaked, but there are upsides

Read more: Italy’s birthrate is falling. Can the storks help?

Census data from the US released last week showed the number of babies born in the country in 2020 dropped to the lowest level in more than four decades. The same day, Japan marked Children’s Day by announcing that the number of under-14s in the country had fallen for the 40th consecutive year to a record low.

It is not just in the rich world that the appetite for having children is falling. Also in 2020, China may have recorded its first overall population decline since a catastrophic famine in the late 1950s, the Financial Times has reported, citing unpublished census data.

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Italy’s birthrate is falling. Can the storks help?

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Last year, the population of Europe’s fourth biggest economy dropped by the equivalent of a city the size of Florence. Yet the northern hamlets of Val d’Ultimo have found ways to buck the trend

Read more: As the global family shrinks, migrants and the planet benefit

As if having a baby wasn’t expensive enough, fathers of newborns in the mountain hamlets that make up Italy’s Val d’Ultimo have an additional cost.

In a revival of an ancient myth that white storks deliver babies, carved wooden storks carrying a newborn child in a sling are a common feature outside homes in the valley.

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Are there too many people? All bets are off

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For decades, scientists and economists have been making wagers about the outcome of human population growth. Now, more than ever, their speculations need to be taken seriously

In 2011, when the global population hit 7 billion, economist David Lam and demographer Stan Becker made a bet. Lam predicted food would get cheaper over the next decade, despite continuing population growth. Becker predicted that food prices would go up, because of the damage humans were doing to the planet, which meant that population growth would outstrip food supply. Becker won and, following his wishes, Lam has just written out a cheque for $194 to the Vermont-based nonprofit Population Media Center, which promotes population stabilisation internationally.

$194, about £140, equates to the amount by which a basket containing five food types – oils and fats, cereals, dairy, meat and sugar – and worth on average $1,000 in the decade to 2010, increased in price over the following decade, according to the UN Food and Agriculture Organization’s Food Price Index (FFPI) and allowing for inflation.

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‘Luxuries I can’t afford’: why fewer women in South Korea are having children

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As the population declines, traditional gender roles and careers are leading many to forgo childbirth

The outcry created this month by Seoul city government’s advice for expectant mothers – including tips on how to cater to their husband’s every need while heavily pregnant – has reignited the debate over why so many South Korean women are choosing not to have children.

The guidelines, issued by the city’s pregnancy and childbirth information centre, were taken down in response to online fury, but not before they had provided a telling insight into attitudes towards gender roles in South Korea, one of the world’s most advanced economies.

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London population set to decline for first time since 1988 – report

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Economic fallout from Covid pandemic and rise of home working likely to spur exodus

London’s population is set to decline for the first time in more than 30 years, driven by the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic and people reassessing where they live during the crisis, according to a report.

The accountancy firm PwC said the number of people living in the capital could fall by more than 300,000 this year, from a record level of about 9 million in 2020, to as low as 8.7 million. This would end decades of growth with the first annual drop since 1988.

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Jane Goodall: ‘Change is happening. There are many ways to start moving in the right way’

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The primatologist and ecological activist on why population isn’t the cause of climate change, and why she’s encouraging optimism

Jane Goodall is a primatologist who is regarded as one of the world’s leading authorities on chimpanzees. She has spent 60 years studying the chimps that live in the Gombe Stream national park and she is a prominent advocate, via several foundations, of protecting the great apes and their habitats. She has been presented with awards by the UN and various governments for her conservation and environmental work. She appears in the Netflix documentary The Beginning of Life 2.

You warned last June that humanity will be finished if we don’t make drastic changes in response to the coronavirus pandemic and the climate crisis. Have you seen any indication of that drastic change?
The window is closing. Business as usual – using up natural resources faster and faster – can’t carry on. In some cases, we are already using resources faster than they can be replenished. And we can see the consequences. Look at climate change. It is not something that might happen in the future; we are already seeing terrible hurricanes and floods and fires. It is building up into an inferno. When you think globally like that, it is very, very depressing.

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‘Wiped off the map’: tiny Italian villages cower from Covid threat

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Coronavirus potentially poses a threat to the very existence of places such as Roccafiorita in Sicily

When the mayor of Roccafiorita received a phone call in October informing him that an employee in his office had tested positive for Covid-19, his heart sank.

Set among the forests at the foot of Mount Kalfa, Roccafiorita is the smallest village in southern Italy. The average age of its 187 inhabitants is over 60. If Covid were to spread among the population, the village could disappear.

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The Guardian view on population growth: a small planet needs big solutions | Editorial

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New research suggests that the global peak may be lower than expected. But the challenges will still be immense

In 1798, Thomas Malthus wrung his hands as he contemplated the growing mass of humanity, warning: “The power of population is so superior to the power of the earth to produce subsistence for man, that premature death must in some shape or other visit the human race.”

A few years after he wrote that essay, the global population hit 1 billion. Now, thanks to the exponential growth which he described, it is closing in on 8 billion. The scholar’s direst warnings, echoed by others through the years, have not come to pass. But his concerns about the strain on resources have been multiplied by the climate crisis, with greenhouse gas emissions rising, and global heating in turn causing land loss and deterioration.

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World population in 2100 could be 2 billion below UN forecasts, study suggests

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Declining fertility and ageing societies could see a huge shift in economic and political clout, University of Washington study says

Earth will be home to 8.8 billion people in 2100, 2 billion fewer than current UN projections, according to a major study published on Wednesday that foresees changes shaped by declining fertility rates and ageing populations.

By the century’s end, 183 of 195 countries – barring an influx of immigrants – will have fallen below the replacement threshold needed to maintain population levels, an international team of researchers reported in the Lancet.

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