Tories say Starmer has a ‘disconnect from reality’ over housing asylum seekers – UK politics live

Newly-appointed shadow housing secretary James Cleverly says there is no excuse for recent riots but government is making a difficult situation worse

Charities have warned of the increasing danger to asylum seekers posed by far-right protesters after small boat arrivals were moved from their usual landing place in Dover to further along the coast to avoid clashes.

The Guardian understands that Home Office officials received intelligence that some of those participating in what was billed the Great British National Protest in Dover on Saturday afternoon could have been planning to target Kent Intake Unit, where small boat arrivals are initially processed after being escorted to shore in Dover by the Border Force.

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Wednesday briefing: ​The Conservative​s ​reshuffle​ in an attempt to ​stay ​relevant ​amid ​poor polling

In today’s newsletter: A year into opposition, Kemi Badenoch’s​ party is still searching for its place in UK politics

Good morning. Kemi Badenoch, the leader of the Conservative party (remember them?), has announced a reshuffle of her top team a year into her leadership.

The reshuffle itself has not come as a surprise – it was rumoured for months. Badenoch has kept much of her team in place, including the shadow home secretary, Robert Jenrick, shadow chancellor, Mel Stride, and the shadow foreign secretary, Priti Patel.

Israel-Gaza war | Israel’s government is pursuing an “unacceptable and morally unjustifiable” policy in Gaza, the Catholic Latin patriarch of Jerusalem has said after visiting a church in the territory that was attacked by Israeli forces and meeting survivors.

Environment | The world is on the brink of a breakthrough in the climate fight and fossil fuels are running out of road, the UN chief said on Tuesday, as he urged countries to funnel support into low-carbon energy.

Immigration | Officials are to start using artificial intelligence to help estimate the age of asylum seekers who say they are children, Angela Eagle, the immigration minister, said on Tuesday.

UK news | A man has been found guilty of assisting a foreign intelligence service after handing over personal details of the then defence secretary, Grant Shapps, to two British undercover officers he believed to be Russian agents.

Music | Ozzy Osbourne, whose gleeful “Prince of Darkness” image made him one of the most iconic rock frontmen of all time, has died aged 76. His death comes less than three weeks after his retirement from performance.

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Suella, Jacob, even Liz? Inside Reform’s unofficial plan to bag a Tory big beast

Officially, the party says there is no mission to court Conservative defectors, but insiders suggest otherwise, and warn against the dangers of doing so

At last year’s GB News Christmas party, Suella Braverman was the centre of attention. The former home secretary is popular in rightwing media circles, but it wasn’t her straight-talking brand of conservatism that was topic of the evening, rather it was the growing whispers about what some thought was her imminent defection to Reform UK.

“It was like a panto – everyone saying: ‘Oh yes you will’, and her saying: ‘Oh no, I won’t’,” says one Reform party guest. “We all thought she was just biding her time until the right moment.”

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Diane Abbott’s Labour suspension must be resolved ‘as swiftly as possible’, says minister – UK politics live

Treasury minister James Murray said Abbott’s claim that ‘this Labour leadership wants me out’ was ‘absolutely not the case’

Grant Shapps said he supported the publication of a defence assessment which formed the basis of the superinjunction over the Afghan data leak and he was “surprised” the gagging order had remained in place “so long”.

Asked whether he backed calls from the Intelligence and Security Committee for the report to be released, the former defence secretary told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme: “Yes I would.

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Keir Starmer and Friedrich Merz sign UK-Germany friendship and cooperation treaty – UK politics live

UK PM and German chancellor sign first bilateral agreement between the UK and Germany since the second world war

While Rushanara Ali is answering the urgent question in the Commons, Keir Starmer is speaking at the event where he is announcing a “civil society covenant”.

There is a live feed here.

Why does this government think a 16-year-old can vote but not be allowed to buy a lottery ticket or an alcoholic drink, marry or go to war, or even stand in the elections they’re voting? It isn’t the government’s position on the age of maturity just hopelessly confused?

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Wallace rejects claim Afghans with ‘tenuous’ links to UK admitted as ex-Tory minister says resettlement scheme was ‘hapless’ – live

Johnny Mercer, former veterans minister, sharply critical of how Afghan resettlement programme handled

In an interview with LBC Ben Wallace, the former Tory defence secretary, hit back at his former ministerial colleague Johnny Mercer rather more forcefully than he did on the Today programme (see 8.09am) over Mercer’s comments about the Afghan resettlement programme.

Tom Swarbrick, the presenter, quoted what Mercer said about how this “whole farcical process has been the most hapless display of ineptitude by successive ministers and officials that I saw in my time in government”.

No, I don’t agree with it. I think my record would show the opposite. It was me and Priti Patel, before the collapse of Kabul, who decided we were going to accelerate bringing people back who were under threat …

People hadn’t come out before. And we made sure that we did this. I think what Johnny, you know, fails to grasp, is quite the massive scale of collapse that happened very quickly in Afghanistan, leaving people at risk, and we had to do our very best.

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UK ex-Middle East minister accused of transparency rule breach over Bahrain advisory role

Tory peer Tariq Ahmad denies contact while in office with King Hamad Global Center for Peaceful Coexistence

A former UK Middle East minister has been accused of breaching transparency rules over a paid advisory role with an influential Bahraini centre that has links to the Gulf state’s government.

The Conservative peer Tariq Ahmad, who denies wrongdoing, was cleared by a watchdog to take up his role as a paid adviser to the King Hamad Global Center for Peaceful Coexistence (KHC).

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Treasury minister says ‘headline’ rate of income tax won’t go up, in hint thresholds might be frozen in budget – UK politics live

Darren Jones also declines to rule out wealth tax when questioned about government plans

In an interview with the Times, Andrew Bailey, governor of the Bank of England, says firms are “adjusting employment and hours” in the light of last year’s rise in employer NICs. That sounds like a euphemism for cutting jobs. But he says, if the labour market slow down, the Bank may respond by cutting interest rates more aggressively.

Asked about this comment in an interview on the Today programme, Darren Jones, chief secretary to the Treasury, played down the impact of the budget. He said:

There’ve also been hundreds of thousands of new jobs created across the economy, and in the first quarter of the year [we had] the fastest growing economy in the G7, so we’re doing everything we can to create conditions for businesses to be profitable and to be able to grow.

Of course, we had that particular tax decision in the budget last year, because our commitment was to protect working people in their pay slips. And I recognise the independence of the bank governor.

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Labour should raise national insurance in autumn budget, says Ed Balls – UK politics live

Former chancellor says employees’ contributions should rise to help address a £6bn shortfall caused by recent U-turns

The Unite union has voted to re-examine its relationship with the Labour party in the light of the government’s failure to support its members in the Birmingham bin strike.

It has also said it was suspending Angela Rayner’s membership, given her role as minister in charge of the department that oversees local government. The union is in dispute with Birmingham city council over proposals to reorganise waste disposal services in the city, and Unite has repeatedly said the government should step in and force the Labour-led council to settle.

Unite is crystal clear it will call out bad employers regardless of the colour of their rosette. Angela Rayner has had every opportunity to intervene and resolve this dispute but has instead backed a rogue council that has peddled lies and smeared its workers fighting huge pay cuts.

The disgraceful actions of the government and a so-called Labour council, is essentially fire and rehire and makes a joke of the Employment Relations Act promises.

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Tories claim ‘one in, one out’ migration deal with France ‘will not deter anyone’ – UK politics live

Starmer and Macron expected to announce migration deal that will involve the UK accepting some cross-Channel asylum seekers

The waiting list for routine hospital treatment in England has fallen for the second month in a row and is now at its lowest level for more than two years, PA Media reports. PA says:

An estimated 7.36 million treatments were waiting to be carried out at the end of May, relating to just under 6.23 million patients – down from 7.39 million treatments and just over 6.23 million patients at the end of April.

These are the lowest figures since March 2023 for treatments and April 2023 for patients.

Monthly NHS data shows the overall waiting list dropped by nearly 30,000 in May to 7.36 million – the lowest total since March 2023 – with 60.9% waiting 18 weeks or less for planned care (the highest proportion since July 2022).

Staff carried out an average of 75,009 planned treatments each working day in May – the highest number on record – with a total of 1.5 million treatments across the month, which is up on 1.45 million in April and higher than 1,437,914 pre-pandemic (May 2019).

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Starmer says UK ‘can’t just tax our way to growth’ as he brushes off call for wealth tax – UK politics live

UK prime minister will have talks with Emmanuel Macron later today

The BMA strike decision must be a tempting topic for Kemi Badenoch at PMQs, which is starting very soon. The Conservatives have repeatedly criticised the government for the way they swiftly settled public sector pay disputes when they took office; they argue that Labour was too generous to the unions, thereby encouraging them to threaten further strikes.

Here is the list of MPs down to ask a question.

Streeting says he is “disappointed” by the proposed strike, and he insists resident doctors have had a relatively good outcome on pay. He says:

I remain disappointed that despite all that we have been able to achieve in this last year, and that the majority of resident doctors in the BMA did not vote to strike, the BMA is continuing to threaten strike action.

I accepted the DDRB’s recommendation for resident doctors, awarding an average pay rise of 5.4%, the highest across the public sector. Accepting this above inflation recommendation, which was significantly higher than affordability, required reprioritisation of NHS budgets. Because of this government’s commitment to recognising the value of the medical workforce, we made back-office efficiency savings to invest in the frontline. That was not inevitable, it was an active political choice this government made. Taken with the previous deal I made with the BMA last year, this means resident doctors will receive an average pay rise of 28.9% over the last 3 years.

He says the NHS is “finally moving in the right direction” and that a strike will “put that recovery at risk”.

He offers to hold meet the BMA to hold talks to avert the strike. He says:

I stand ready to meet with you again at your earliest convenience to resolve this dispute without the need for strike action. I would like to once again extend my offer to meet with your entire committee to discuss this.

As I have stated many times, in private and in public, with you and your predecessors, you will not find another health and social care secretary as sympathetic to resident doctors as me. By choosing to strike instead of working in partnership to improve conditions for your members and the NHS, you are squandering an opportunity.

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Minister won’t rule out support cuts for children with EHCPs amid Send overhaul – UK politics live

Stephen Morgan, the early education minister, would not confirm every child who has an EHCP would continue to keep the same provisions

The Conservatives will try to change the government’s welfare Bill to tighten up access to personal independence payments (Pip) and universal credit, PA Media reports. PA says:

Kemi Badenoch will pledge that the Tories are “now the only party committed to serious welfare reform” after Keir Starmer shelved plans to restrict eligibility for Pip in the face of a backbench revolt this week.

The Tories will look to lay amendments to the legislation – set to be renamed the universal credit bill – and party leader Badenoch is due to deliver a speech on welfare on Thursday.

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Jeremy Corbyn says ‘discussions are ongoing’ after Zarah Sultana claimed she would ‘co-lead new party’ with him – as it happened

This blog is now closed, you can read more on this story here

My colleague Lauren Almeida, who is running the Guardian’s business live blog, has shared the following:

Rachel Reeves has not given herself enough fiscal headroom to manage public finances, Charlie Bean, the former deputy of the Bank of England has said, and has to “neurotically fine tune taxes”.

About £10bn – that’s a very small number in the context of overall public spending. Government spending is about one and a quarter trillion so £10bn is a small number … and it is a small number in the context of typical forecasting errors.

You can’t forecast the future perfectly both because you can’t forecast the economy and you can’t forecast all the elements of public finances …. The forecasts are imprecise and there is no way you can avoid that. That is a fact of life.

In light of reports of atrocities committed by the Israeli government in Gaza and reports of the UK’s collaboration with Israeli military operations, it is increasingly urgent to confirm whether the UK has contributed to any violations of international humanitarian law through economic or political cooperation with the Israeli government since October 2023, including the sale, supply or use of weapons, surveillance aircraft and Royal Air Force bases.

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No 10 guts welfare bill in big new concession as minister says Pip cuts planned for 2026 shelved until after Timms review – UK politics live

Switch to four-point Pip eligibility rule may never happen at all as Stephen Timms says government will ‘remove clause five from the bill’

Compass, the leftwing group urging Labour to be more pluralistic, has put out a statement condemning the UC and Pip bill. Its director, Neal Lawson, said:

If your own friends are telling you to put the brakes on, then something has clearly gone wrong. Despite the government’s line, this legislation does not advance Labour values. It is fundamentally at odds with them, and with the views of the mainstream of the party and civil society.

MPs from across the House, and especially the Labour side, must back Rachael Maskell’s reasoned amendment. This bill’s creation of a three-tiered social security system would condemn thousands to poverty and could lose Labour the next election.

A bill of this magnitude should have been co-produced with disabled people and our organisations from the very start.

Now, ministers scramble to promise ‘consultation’ as one small part of the process. That is too little, too late. Co-production is not a rushed tick-box exercise tagged onto legislation already steaming through Parliament. It means disabled people shaping the system at every step – not just commenting on the detail of changes already baked in.

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DWP says 150,000 more people pushed into poverty by benefit cuts, not 250,000 as forecast said before U-turn – UK politics live

Analysis says, allowing for concessions to welfare bill announced last week, cuts will still push people into relative poverty

The Department for Work and Pensions has just published an analysis saying that, allowing for the concesssions announced last week, the welfare cuts will still push an extra 150,000 people into relative poverty.

Here is the key chart from the document.

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Tory MP refers himself to parliamentary watchdog over adviser role

Report in the Times alleges George Freeman was paid by company that helped him write questions to government

A Conservative MP has referred himself to the parliamentary watchdog after it was alleged he was paid by a company that helped him write questions to government.

Former minister George Freeman submitted queries to Labour ministers about the sector the firm operates in, the Times reported.

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Starmer says welfare concessions are ‘common sense’ but dodges funding question – UK politics live

No 10 has offered significant concessions to the rebels, estimated to cost around £3bn a year, amid fears over Tuesday’s vote

Stephen Kinnock, the care minister, was the government voice on the airwaves this morning. Here are the main points he made about the welfare bill U-turn.

Kinnock rejected claims that the U-turn was a sign of weakness. When it was put to him on the Today programme that this move, coming after the U-turns on winter fuel payments and a national inquiry into grooming gangs, showed that if Keir Starmer was pushed, he would give in, Kinnock replied:

I think if you talk to people out there in the country, they respond very positively to politicians listening, engaging, recognising that you don’t get everything right from day one every time, and making the adjustments and the changes that are needed.

And this prime minister will always put the country first. He puts country before party, and he does the right thing for the country.

He defended having a “staggered” approach to changing benefit rules. Asked about the Tory claim that the government was creating a “two-tier benefits system” (see 8.30am), he replied:

Whenever you bring forward change to a complex system, you always have to decide between do you make the change for everybody that’s in that system, in one big move, or do you do it in a more staggered way? What’s clear from the announcement today is that it’s going to be a more staggered process.

He declined to say how much the U-turn would cost. He told Times Radio:

The full details around what we are laying out, what I’ve summarised really today, is going to be laid out in parliament, and then the chancellor will set out the budget in the autumn the whole of the fiscal position and this will be an important part of that.

He said he was now confident that the UC and Pip bill will pass its second reading on Tuesday.

All of the MPs I’ve spoken to who signed the reasoned amendment – MPs from across the party, not just on the left – are sticking to their position because we understand that we are answerable to our constituents.

If the government doesn’t pull the bill, doesn’t consult properly with disabled people and come back to MPs with a serious proposal that protects the dignity of disabled people, I will vote against and I will be far from the only one.

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Starmer confirms willingness to make concessions on welfare bill, saying reforms must be fair – UK politics live

‘We want to see reform implemented with Labour values of fairness,’ the PM says

In his final answer Starmer explained how he thought government and business should work together.

A true partnership is not two people or two bodies trying to do the same thing. It’s two people or bodies realising they bring different things to the table.

Government shouldn’t try to run businesses. It’s done that in the past and it doesn’t work particularly well.

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Grooming gang survivors tell MPs to stop ‘tug-of-war with vulnerable women’ – UK politics live

Two survivors urged politicians and those without experience of abuse to allow women to shape the investigation

Campaigners from trade unions, voluntary organisations and the Church of Scotland have announced plans for an anti-poverty march to “demand better” from politicians in Scotland, reports the PA news agency.

The campaign, Scotland Demands Better, will culminate in a march in Edinburgh on 25 October, walking from the Scottish parliament, up the Royal Mile and along George IV Bridge to The Meadows.

Change for the better happens when people stand together and demand it. Scotland desperately needs that change.

Too many of us are being cut off from life’s essentials. Too many are frightened of what the future will bring. Too many of us are feeling tired, angry, isolated, and disillusioned.

Air pollution remains the most important environmental threat to health, with impacts throughout the life course.

It is an area of health where the UK has made substantial progress in the last three decades, with concentrations of many of the main pollutants falling rapidly, but it remains a major cause of chronic ill health as well as premature mortality.

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Echoes of Brexit as Starmer is pressed to seize initiative on human rights | Jessica Elgot

Labour MPs fighting Reform want action and a European renegotiation looks unappealing. How would the PM sell a third way?

Can a lefty human rights lawyer be the one to take on Britain’s uneasy relationship with the European convention on human rights (ECHR)?

It is the most unlikely of causes for Keir Starmer. But there is a growing feeling in government that he should seize the initiative.

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