Will sky-high unemployment lead to authoritarianism or progress? | Barry Eichengreen

The fallout from coronavirus could help undermine Reagan-era principles and renew a sense of national interdependence

Does the huge surge in US unemployment claims announced on Thursday mean that we are doomed to endure the 30% unemployment of which the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis has warned?

The answer is no. How high unemployment rises will depend on how quickly we ramp up testing and the provision of protective equipment, enabling us to determine when and where it is safe to return to work.

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Stock markets rally after Federal Reserve starts printing money

Dow Jones has best day since 1933, with Asian and European markets also up, after US move

Global stock markets staged a strong rally on Tuesday as investors were buoyed by the Federal Reserve’s efforts to boost the US economy and the prospect of Congress backing a fiscal stimulus package.

The Dow Jones recorded its best day since 1933 as it gained 11.4%, or 2,113 points, while the FTSE 100 posted its highest ever gain, of 452 points, as it rose 9% to 5,446.

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Urgent call to head off new debt crisis in developing world

Covid-19 crisis is raising borrowing costs for poorer nations just as commodity exports, tourism and remittances sent home fall

Rapid action is needed to head off the risk of a new debt crisis in the world’s poorest countries amid evidence that the Covid-19 pandemic is raising borrowing costs and hitting commodity exports, according to a leading campaign group.

A Jubilee Debt Campaign report said some of the world’s most vulnerable nations were being hit by a double whammy of increasing debt interest bills and the tumbling price of oil and other raw materials.

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Markets plunge despite coordinated action by central banks

Sharp losses recorded after US interest rate cut, as Bank of England hints at further support to combat turmoil

The FTSE 100 fell below 5,000 points on Monday and trading on Wall Street was suspended for the third time in a week as markets were gripped by mounting concerns over the threat of a global recession, despite a coordinated effort by central banks to protect growth and jobs.

In an escalation of the worst turmoil since the 2008 financial crisis, stock markets suffered further sharp losses on Monday despite dramatic action taken by the US central bank late on Sunday in an attempt to limit the economic impact of the coronavirus pandemic.

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Coronavirus live updates: Italy-wide lockdown comes into force

UK and US had worst days trading since 2008 GFC; Global cases near 110,000; Grand Princess passengers disembark. Follow the latest news.

As the whole of Italy goes into lockdown, there are some reassuring signs that measures are starting to work. Across the 11 towns that went into quarantine over two weeks ago, the number of cases is beginning to fall.

Virgin Atlantic has called on the European Commission and UK flight slots co-ordinator to relax rules amid the coronavirus outbreak, PA reports.

Chief executive Shai Weiss said: “Last month Virgin Atlantic and industry partners committed to achieving net zero carbon by 2050.

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Coronavirus live updates: fifth death confirmed in UK, as head of New York’s airports tests positive

With cases spiking sharply across Europe and emergency measures in place from California to Saudi Arabia, investors have sent shares tumbling

US authorities are planning a flight tomorrow to repatriate Britons on the coronavirus-hit Grand Princess cruise ship.

The UK Foreign Office issued the following statement:

We continue to work closely with the US authorities to repatriate British nationals on board the Grand Princess. The US are currently planning for a flight to leave tomorrow evening, returning to the UK on Wednesday afternoon. We remain in contact with all British nationals on board and will continue to offer support.

Chinese authorities reportedly scrambled to move people out of quarantine hotels which need full safety inspections after the deaths of at least 10 people in a collapsed hotel.

Joanna Davison, an English teacher, and her partner were suddenly placed in enforced isolation in Shenzhen after a ferry trip about 10 days ago. On Thursday, she told the Guardian she endured a “terrifying” experience as five people in hazmat suits came to test them at her home before they were whisked to quarantine.

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Oil price plunges 20% as Saudis vow to step up production

Move follows Russian refusal to join Opec-led production cut aimed at keeping prices high

The price of crude oil has plunged by more than 20% after Saudi Arabia, the world’s top oil exporter, said it would step up production from next month, flooding global markets and most likely depressing petrol and diesel prices.

Brent crude futures slid 30% to $31.02 a barrel in chaotic trade on Monday morning, before recovering slightly to $36.06, a drop of 20% on Friday night’s close. It was the worst one-day fall for brent since the start of the first Gulf war in 1991. US crude fell 27% to $30.

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World Bank accused over ExxonMobil plans to tap Guyana oil rush

Washington DC-based bank grants funds to redraft south American state’s oil laws by lawyers linked to oil giant

The World Bank is to pay for Guyana’s oil laws to be rewritten by a legal firm that has regularly worked for ExxonMobil, just as the US producer prepares to extract as much as 8bn barrels of oil off the country’s coast.

The World Bank has pledged not to fund fossil fuel extraction directly, but it is giving Guyana millions of dollars to develop governance in its burgeoning oil sector, as the south American country prepares for an oil rush led by ExxonMobil and its partners.

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Will coronavirus trigger a global recession? | Jeffrey Frankel

World economy’s prospects look bleak owing to Covid-19 outbreak and Donald Trump’s trade policy

At the start of this year, things seemed to be looking up for the global economy. True, growth had slowed a bit in 2019: from 2.9% to 2.3% in the US and from 3.6% to 2.9% globally. Still, there had been no recession and as recently as January, the International Monetary Fund projected a global growth rebound in 2020. The new coronavirus, Covid-19, has changed all of that.

Early predictions about Covid-19’s economic impact were reassuring. Similar epidemics – such as the 2003 outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome (Sars), another China-born coronavirus – did little damage globally. At the country level, GDP growth took a hit but quickly bounced back, as consumers released pent-up demand and firms rushed to fill back orders and restock inventories.

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Coronavirus: fourth Diamond Princess passenger dies as Japan closes some schools – live news

Concerns mount that the spread of Covid-19 cannot be stopped as stock markets fall amid investor fears. Follow latest news

Italy may need to call on the European Union to offer leeway on its budget targets as it struggles with the impact of the coronavirus outbreak, a senior official said.

Deputy economy minister, Laura Castelli, made the comments a day after prime minister Giuseppe Conte warned that the fallout from the outbreak, which has concentrated in the economic powerhouses of northern Italy, would be “very strong”.

If you want to share any thoughts or news tips with me about the coronavirus then please email: sarah.marsh@theguardian.com or tweet me @sloumarsh. My direct messages are open. Thanks

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Coronavirus: two people die in Iran as cruise ship Britons face Wirral quarantine – latest updates

Deaths in mainland China pass 2,000 and Foreign Office tells Britons to stay on the Diamond Princess cruise ship

Inspectors in protective suits have been going door to door in Wuhan in an effort to find every infected person, the Associated Press reports.

Wednesday marked the final day of a campaign to root out anyone with symptoms whom authorities may have missed so far.

Britons returning home from the Diamond Princess cruise ship that has had more than 600 cases of coronavirus will be quarantined at the same NHS facility that housed people flown back to the UK from Wuhan.

The Department of Health said: “We can confirm that an accommodation block on the Arrowe Park NHS site will be used to isolate those returning from the Diamond Princess cruise ship in Japan. They will be kept in this location for the 14-day quarantine period, with around-the-clock support from medical staff at all times.”

Related: Foreign Office tells Britons not to leave cruise ship struck by coronavirus

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Coronavirus: Japan to trial HIV antiretroviral drugs on patients – latest news

UK prepares evacuation flight for cruise ship passengers. Follow the latest news

The Italian luxury fashion house Prada has postponed a fashion show due to take place in Japan in May.

In a statement, the company said:

Due to the current uncertainty related to the spread of the novel coronavirus, the Prada Resort fashion show originally scheduled for May 21 in Japan will be postponed.

Repatriating passengers from the coronavirus-stricken cruise ship in Japan is not without risks, a medical expert has said.

Paul Hunter, professor in Medicine at the University of East Anglia, said:

Considerable care needs to be made to ensure that the passengers do not transmit infection between themselves or to cabin crew during the flight home and once back on home soil they do not act as a focus for the spread of the disease into their home countries – any returning passengers may be put in quarantine on their return.

It is well known that certain infections such as influenza and norovirus can spread rapidly on board cruise ships. Cruise ships take passengers and crew from all over the world, often passengers are relatively elderly, they spend most of their time on board indoors mixing with others.

The most likely [infection] route is direct person-to-person transmission when people are close to an infected person, but with currently publicly available information it is not possible to rule out other issues at this stage.

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Coronavirus: Cruise ship turned away from five countries allowed to dock in Cambodia – latest news

MS Westerdam, which has 1,455 passengers and 802 crew, will dock on Thursday as WHO chief warns coronavirus threat is greater than terrorism

A paper in the Lancet medical journal, published online, should dispel some of the worries around reported deaths of some babies born to women who have fallen ill with what is now being called COVID-19 infection.

The authors say preliminary evidence suggests the new coronavirus cannot be passed to the baby in the womb.

Hi, Amy Walker here taking over the blog from my colleague Simon Murphy.

Patients who were treated by the two Brighton GPs who have been diagnosed with coronavirus are being traced by health officials, the BBC has reported.

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Coronavirus live updates: all arrivals to Hong Kong from mainland China face ‘compulsory quarantine’ – latest news

Thousands on board Diamond Princess cruise ship in offshore quarantine in Japan after 10 people test positive, as China death toll passes 490

A hotel worker in the northern Italian city of Verona has tested negative for coronavirus.

The woman, who was isolated after coming down with a fever, is a member of staff at the same hotel where a Chinese couple being treated for the virus in Rome stayed for one night.

Here’s a report from Josh Taylor, a Guardian reporter based in Melbourne, that the Australian government is considering sending its citizens evacuated from Wuhan to isolated mining camps if Christmas Island reaches capacity for people being quarantined.

The home affairs minister, Peter Dutton, admitted there is the possibility that Christmas Island could reach capacity if the outbreak continues to spread. He said one option would be for people to share rooms, or potentially even open up other locations away from the rest of the Australian population.

Related: Coronavirus: 14th Australian case confirmed as Dutton says people could be sent to mining camps

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UN report: half a billion people struggle to find adequate paid work

Study also shows global unemployment due to rise for the first time in a decade

Nearly half a billion people around the world are struggling to find adequate paid work, trapping individuals in poverty and fuelling heightened levels of inequality, according to a UN report.

In a study published as world leaders fly into the Swiss ski resort of Davos to voice concerns over inequality and the climate crisis, the UN’s International Labour Organization (ILO) said more than 473 million people around the world lacked the employment opportunities to meet their needs.

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IMF boss says global economy risks return of Great Depression

Kristalina Georgieva compares today with “roaring 1920s” and criticises UK wealth gap

The head of the International Monetary Fund has warned that the global economy risks a return of the Great Depression, driven by inequality and financial sector instability.

Speaking at the Peterson Institute of International Economics in Washington, Kristalina Georgieva said new IMF research, which compares the current economy to the “roaring 1920s” that culminated in the great market crash of 1929, revealed that a similar trend was already under way.

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Trump signs China trade pact and boasts of ‘the biggest deal ever seen’

President signs first phase of new agreement with China, hours after Democrats named team that will prosecute him in Senate

Donald Trump has signed the first phase of a new trade agreement with China after two years of tension between the two superpowers that have rattled economies around the world.

Related: Trump vaunts his China trade pact – but some say it’s too little, too late

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Donald Trump says he will sign first phase of US-China trade deal

Prospect of agreement lifts stock markets but experts question impact on long-running tensions

Donald Trump has said he will sign the first phase of a long-awaited trade deal with China on 15 January, in a move that de-escalates the tariff war between the world’s two biggest economies.

In a tweet on Tuesday, the US president said “high-level representatives of China” would attend an official ceremony at the White House, adding he would also be travelling to Beijing for talks on the second phase of the deal.

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Hong Kong recession to continue as protests hit economy – business live

Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news

The pick-up in UK mortgage approvals in November is a “significant surprise”, says Howard Archer of the EY Item Club.

He suspects that some home owners may have been keen to move before the general election, as a hung parliament could have created more economic uncertainty in 2020.

Those gains in Hong Kong and China today have lifted Asian stock markets to their highest levels in 18 months today.

Global stock markets have gained another $700bn this week in thin trading on santa rally. All equities now worth $87.1tn, just $200bn shy of a fresh life-time high and equal to 100% of global GDP so stocks have entered bubble territory. pic.twitter.com/JgXmKPDWCN

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Easing trade tensions fuel pre-Christmas shares rally

Donald Trump promises that a US-China trade pact will be signed ‘very shortly’

A pre-Christmas rally fuelled by hopes of waning trade tensions have pushed share prices to a fresh high and on course for their biggest rise in a decade.

Donald Trump’s promise that a US-China trade pact would be signed “very shortly” sent the MSCI gauge of stock markets around the world to new record levels.

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