Labour steps up preparations to govern as Reeves attacks ‘unfunded’ Tory tax cuts

Shadow cabinet talk with Whitehall officials after Keir Starmer meets head of civil service

All members of Keir Starmer’s shadow cabinet are to meet top civil servants in Whitehall departments before Easter as Labour steps up preparations to form the next government, according to senior party sources.

The Observer has been told that Starmer recently held a first round of so-called “access talks” with the cabinet secretary Simon Case, the head of the civil service, at a “neutral venue” in London, to kick off an exchange of information between the official opposition and Whitehall in advance of a potential handover of power.

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UK politics: Sunak refuses to say how abolition of national insurance would be funded – as it happened

PM says ‘people trust me on these things’ and refuses to be drawn on whether government would forgo entire £46bn raised from measure

Keir Starmer has accused Jeremy Hunt of repeating the budget mistakes made by Liz Truss during her disastrous premiership.

In comments on the budget during a visit to a building site this morning, Starmer focused on Hunt’s proposal to abolish employees’ national insurance over time, saying that this was a bigger unfunded tax promise than those in Truss’s mini-budget. (See 9.28am.)

How humiliating was that for the government yesterday?

We’ve argued for years that they should get rid of the non-dom tax status, they’ve resisted that. And now, completely out of ideas, the only decent policy they’ve got is the one that they’ve lifted from us.

Nothing that Jeremy Hunt did yesterday, nor anything the OBR said, changes anything very significantly. Which is a shame. Because that means we are still:

-heading for a parliament in which people will on average be worse off at the end than at the start,

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Budget 2024 live: Jeremy Hunt cuts national insurance, abolishes non-dom status and raises child benefit threshold

NI cut of 2p announced, along with new tax on vapes, end of tax relief for holiday lettings and more cash for NHS IT system

Jeremy Hunt is expected to extend the windfall tax on energy companies in the budget to help fund his national insurance cut. Extending the windfall tax is a Labour proposal that the Tories used to dismiss, and, according to a Daily Telegraph story, Douglas Ross, the Scottish Conservative leader, is so angry about the move that colleagues thought he might resign. Ross is MP for Moray, in the north-east of Scotland, and he is worried that the potential impact on the oil and gas industry in Scotland will cost the party votes.

In their story, Nick Gutteridge, Dominic Penna and Simon Johnson say Ross had a row with Rishi Sunak about this at a reception on Sunday night. They report:

The leader of the Scottish Conservatives had doggedly sought out Mr Sunak across the crowded, stifling room, determined to give him a piece of his mind about the Treasury’s plans to extend the windfall tax on North Sea oil and gas giants for an extra year.

What followed was a “heated” discussion between the pair, with Mr Ross warning the move would hammer the Tory vote north of the border and the prime minister countering that it was necessary to deliver a National Insurance cut for millions of workers.

Glen O’Hara, professor of modern history at Oxford Brookes University, points to the gaping trade deficit left for Labour in 1964, when outgoing Tory Chancellor Reginald Maudling infamously left a note for his successor reading: “Good luck, old cock … sorry to leave it in such a mess.”

Conservative Chancellor Norman Lamont’s pre-election budget in 1992 introduced a lower rate of income tax which Labour opposed, allowing the Tories to portray them as a “high-tax party.” The Tories unexpectedly went on to win the subsequent poll.

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UK general election opinion polls tracker: Labour leading as election looms

Find out who’s up and who’s down in the latest polls – and how many seats each party is likely to win in the next general election

The next UK general election is looming, with most analysts expecting it to be called late this year.

After 13 years of Conservative rule, Keir Starmer’s Labour has been consistently ahead in the polls since the start of 2022.

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Starmer set up own Labour leadership team six months before Corbyn’s 2019 defeat

A new biography has revealed how the Labour leader and his allies planned his challenge in advance of the election

Keir Starmer had assembled a leadership team about six months before the Ddecember 2019 general election that led to Jeremy Corbyn’s resignation as Labour leader.

The team, codenamed the “Arlington Group”, began planning in earnest how Starmer could capture the leadership from June of that year – including a detailed breakdown of how Labour’s membership could be convinced to support him.

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Tory and SNP anger as speaker allows Labour’s amendment on Gaza ceasefire vote – UK politics live

Move will help Keir Starmer head off threatened rebellion from his MPs

New 20mph limits are helping cut speeds and will save lives, the Welsh government has insisted. PA Media says:

Drivers are travelling on average 4mph slower on main roads in Wales since the rollout of a new lower speed limit for built-up areas, data collected by Transport for Wales (TfW) shows.

The Welsh Labour government, which implemented the change in September last year, insists the lower speeds will lead to fewer collisions and people injured.

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Tories and SNP furious as speaker hands Starmer a boost over Gaza vote

Lindsay Hoyle gives Labour leader greater chance of avoiding rebellion over calls for ceasefire by allowing amendment

The Commons speaker has given Keir Starmer’s hopes of avoiding a major rebellion over Gaza a big boost by allowing the Labour leader to hold a vote on his preferred solution to the Middle East crisis.

Dozens of Labour MPs were preparing to vote on Wednesday for a Scottish National party motion calling for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza for the second time in three months.

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Wednesday briefing: Everyone claims to back a ceasefire in Gaza. But what are they really saying?

In today’s newsletter: As Israel’s position weakens on the international stage, differences in language between different ceasefire calls tell a complicated story

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Good morning. The daily details of the horror being visited on civilians in Gaza can make any conversation about the language of ceasefire proposals being put forward in foreign capitals seem absurd.

A massive majority at the UN general assembly backed a ceasefire in December; so did the pope. A few days later, both Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer backed a “sustainable” ceasefire. Twenty-six of 27 EU states again called for a ceasefire on Monday. Benjamin Netanyahu has not yet been persuaded by any of them.

Health | Patients whose health is failing will be granted the right to obtain an urgent second opinion about their care, as “Martha’s rule” is initially adopted in 100 English hospitals from April at the start of a national rollout. The initiative follows a campaign by Merope Mills, a senior editor at the Guardian, and her husband, Paul Laity, after their 13-year-old daughter Martha died of sepsis at King’s College hospital in London in 2021.

UK news | Detectives hunting for Abdul Ezedi, the man wanted over a chemical assault that injured a vulnerable woman and her two young daughters, have recovered a body in the Thames that they believe is Ezedi, Scotland Yard has said. “We have been in contact with his family to pass on the news,” said Cmdr Jon Savell.

WikiLeaks | Julian Assange faces the risk of a “flagrant denial of justice” if tried in the US, the high court has heard. Lawyers for Assange are seeking permission to appeal against the WikiLeaks founder’s extradition, and say he could face a “grossly disproportionate” sentence of up to 175 years if convicted in the US.

PPE contracts | Michael Gove failed to register hospitality he enjoyed with a Conservative donor whose company he had recommended for multimillion-pound personal protective equipment (PPE) contracts during the Covid pandemic. When asked by the Guardian about not registering VIP hospitality at a football match he received from David Meller, a spokesperson for Gove apologised for the “oversight”.

Pakistan | Imran Khan’s political rivals have announced details of a coalition agreement, naming Shehbaz Sharif as their joint candidate for prime minister amid continuing concerns about the legitimacy of the recent elections. Candidates aligned with Khan won the most seats in the parliamentary elections but not enough to form a government.

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Keir Starmer seeks to head off another Labour rebellion over Gaza ceasefire

Crucial vote on party’s new call for ‘humanitarian ceasefire’ goes before MPs on Wednesday as thousands of protesters expected in Westminster

Keir Starmer’s attempt to head off a damaging rebellion over Gaza was hanging by a thread last night, despite bowing to pressure by finally calling for an immediate ceasefire in the region.

Labour explicitly backed an “immediate humanitarian ceasefire” for the first time since fighting broke out in October, in a bid to ward off another party split in what is likely to be a tense Commons vote on Wednesday.

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Starmer allies gripped by fear of Labour complacency amid byelection triumphs

Despite victory in two Conservative safe seats, a Labour government is not a foregone conclusion, say party hawks

For the past few months, with Labour enjoying a stubbornly large double-digit lead in the polls, close allies of Keir Starmer remained obsessed with the notion that complacency will slip into the mindsets of MPs, advisers and activists.

In a breathless week that saw Labour veer from having to abandon one byelection before scooping previously safe Tory seats in two others, the obsessives were given three opportunities to drive their point home.

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Keir Starmer paid £99,400 in UK tax on £404,000 of earnings, Labour reveals

Details about leader’s finances for 2022-23 come after Rishi Sunak revealed he paid more than £508,000 of tax on £2.2m plus

Keir Starmer paid £99,431 in UK tax on earnings of £404,030 last year, according to a summary released by the Labour party.

The Labour leader’s tax summary for 2022-23 was published a week after Rishi Sunak’s, which revealed the prime minister paid more than £508,208 in UK tax last year on earnings of just over £2.2m.

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UK politics live: Labour overturns Tory majorities in Kingswood and Wellingborough to secure double byelection win

Keir Starmer says ‘people are ready to put their trust in a Labour government’, as wins by Damien Egan and Gen Kitchen put further pressure on Rishi Sunak

Gen Kitchen, the new MP for Wellingborough, said she was “ecstatic” at the result, adding that the double byelection win for Labour shows that people are “fed up” and want change.

“The people of Wellingborough have spoken for Britain. This is a stunning victory for the Labour party and must send a message from Northamptonshire to Downing Street,” she said.

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Labour overturns 18,000 Tory majority to win Wellingborough byelection

Gen Kitchen takes seat for party for first time since 2001 general election to temper fears after testing week

Labour has overturned a Tory majority of over more than 18,000 to secure victory in the Wellingborough byelection, winning the seat for the first time since the 2001 general election.

Labour’s candidate, Gen Kitchen, won with 13,844 votes, beating the Conservatives’ Helen Harrison who received 7,408 votes in the largest swing from the Tories to Labour since 1994 and second largest since the second world war. It was Labour’s fifth byelection gain from the Conservatives overall in this parliament. The party also gained a Tory seat in Kingswood, dealing a double blow to an embattled Conservative party that has lost 10 byelections in a single parliament, more than any government since the 1960s.

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Labour accuses Hunt of being ‘out of touch’ on economy as polls open in Kingswood and Wellingborough – UK politics live

Labour aiming to win two byelections as chancellor defends Sunak’s record, saying ‘economy is turning a corner’

On Sky News this morning Jeremy Hunt claimed that he would “only cut taxes in a way that was responsible” in the March budget, and the chancellor refused to be drawn on specific measures.

He told viewers:

You will know that chancellors don’t talk about budgets just a few weeks before and that is for a very good reason, because I don’t yet know the final numbers that I will receive from the office for budget responsibility.

I would only cut taxes in a way that was responsible, and I certainly wouldn’t do anything that fuelled inflation just when we are starting to have some success in bringing down inflation.

I am a passionate supporter of the NHS and all our public services, but in the long-run the best thing that I can do as chancellor for the NHS is to make sure that our economy is growing healthily. So what you will see in everything I do in the Budget on March 6 is prioritising economic growth.

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Ken Clarke says government is setting an ‘extremely dangerous precedent’ with Rwanda bill – as it happened

Former Tory home secretary tells House of Lords he hopes the bill will be struck down as ‘unconstitutional’

By the way I notice in the comments – see I promised that I do read them – some criticism of the reporting of the inflation figures saying that food prices fell when the headline inflation rate is 4%.

While it is true that inflation falling from 11% to 4% doesn’t mean that prices are going down, it means they are going up more slowly, my understanding is that the food price component of the inflation figures did show prices going down, albeit from a high base.

However, food and non-alcoholic drink prices fell at a monthly rate of 0.4% in January, the first monthly decline since May 2021, driven by price cuts in January for bread and cereals, cream crackers, sponge cake and chocolate biscuits.

Against a backdrop of a tough Christmas for UK retailers because of weak consumer spending, furniture prices also fell at the fastest monthly rate in four years amid steep reductions for kitchens, leather settees, dining tables and chairs.

The ONS said that although food inflation fell on the month in January, prices had increased by 25% over the past two years – more than double the rate seen over the entire preceding decade.

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Labour suspends second parliamentary candidate over Israel comments

Withdrawal of backing for Graham Jones, candidate for Hyndburn, follows Starmer’s action against Azhar Ali in Rochdale

Labour has suspended a second parliamentary candidate over their remarks about Israel, as Keir Starmer struggles to contain the fallout from the leak of a private meeting of party activists in Lancashire last year.

Party sources said on Tuesday that Labour had suspended Graham Jones, the candidate for Hyndburn, less than 24 hours after the party withdrew its support from Azhar Ali, its candidate for the Rochdale byelection later this month.

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Starmer says Rochdale decision ‘tough but necessary’ for Labour – UK politics live

Party criticised for delay in acting over comments in which Azhar Ali suggested Israel had allowed 7 October attack to happen

Here is my colleague Geneva Abdul’s report on the reaction this morning to Labour pulling its support from its Rochdale byelection candidate:

Labour’s decision to withdraw support for its candidate at the Rochdale byelection in the wake of controversial comments about the 7 October Hamas attacks has been “shambolic”, the senior lawyer who compiled a report on the party’s culture has said.

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Starmer says he took ‘tough’ action to pull support from Rochdale candidate

Labour leader says he acted decisively after further information on Azhar Ali’s comments about Israel

Keir Starmer has defended his handling of the controversy surrounding Labour’s candidate in Rochdale, who was suspended by the party on Monday night after days of revelations about remarks he made about Israel soon after the Hamas attacks.

The Labour leader said on Tuesday he had taken tough and decisive action against Azhar Ali, who will now campaign for the Rochdale seat with no official support for the party.

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Rishi Sunak tells voters he is ‘absolutely’ committed to Rwanda during Q&A on GB News – live updates

Prime minister faces one-hour grilling from voters following day of campaigning in Yorkshire

I must confess that if I was looking for “woke extremists” myself, then the British armed forces would be unlikely to be my first port of call, but the idea has gripped defence secretary Grant Shapps, who has complained that “time and resources are being squandered to promote a political agenda which is pitting individuals against each other” because “there is a woke culture that has seeped into public life over time and is poisoning the discourse.”

He has ordered a review of diversity and inclusion policies at the Ministry of Defence (MoD) after it was reported that the army wants to relax security checks for overseas recruits to increase black, Asian and minority ethnic representation.

This is a time when only our enemies want us to be divided and we have absolutely no time for this – sort of putting ideology before security. It is absolutely clear, and let me be totally clear, there is no way we are going to be easing up security requirements for ideological requests. That is simply not going to happen.

You know, the British armed forces have one purpose and one purpose alone, and that’s to defend the British people and bring death to the king’s enemies. There’s no way we’re going to be putting ideology before security.

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We’ve given up the fight, say top Tories as byelection defeats loom

Senior Conservative says party has descended into ‘death spiral’ as poll losses set to fuel fresh attacks on Sunak’s leadership

Conservative MPs on Saturday night predicted fresh attacks on Rishi Sunak’s leadership within days, as they accused their own party of surrendering to Labour without a proper fight in two formerly safe Tory seats where byelections will be held this week.

MPs from across the party complained that losses in Wellingborough and Kingswood on Thursday had already been “priced in”, as one senior figure said defeatism had set in, with the party having descended into a “death spiral”.

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