Covid in the UK: why is it so bad now and when will cases decline? | Nicola Davis and Linda Geddes

With a major incident declared in London and positive test results surging, experts answer key questions

The UK is seeing record numbers of people testing positive for coronavirus, with more than 60,000 positive tests reported on three days this week.

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What’s the scientific basis for delaying the Covid vaccine second dose?

UK health officials also allowing combining doses from different manufacturers

UK health officials have decided to delay giving second doses of Covid-19 vaccines and even permit combining doses from different manufacturers, prompting international concern. What is the scientific justification for this decision?

Why has the UK decided to lengthen the gap between the first and second doses of vaccine?
The original plan was to offer priority groups an initial shot of vaccine, followed by a second dose three weeks later. But a rapid increase in the number of Covid-19 cases, combined with the emergence of a more transmissible variant and uncertainty about the supply of vaccine stocks, prompted the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI) to consider other options.

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One in 50 people in England had Covid last week, says Chris Whitty

Figure for people outside hospitals and care homes revealed as number of new daily cases in UK tops 60,000 for first time

One in 50 people in private households in England – more than 1.1 million – are estimated to have had the coronavirus in the week ending 2 January.

The Office for National Statistics figures were released on Tuesday, as the number of new cases of people in the UK testing positive for Covid-19 topped 60,000 for the first time since the start of the pandemic.

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The many U-turns on the road to England’s third lockdown

November lockdown decision has been followed by a series of flip-flops and 11th-hour announcements

The government’s coronavirus strategy for England has changed a number of times since the start of the November lockdown, as infections soared and a new variant of the virus emerged.

14 October 2020: Johnson dismisses calls from the Labour leader, Keir Starmer, for a “circuit-breaker” lockdown, telling MPs: “Opportunism is the name of the game for the party opposite.”

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UK to move to highest coronavirus alert level as full lockdowns loom

Boris Johnson to make TV announcement on Monday night after pressure to tackle soaring infection rate

The government is expected to announce new steps to control the spread of coronavirus, as the chief medical officers recommended that the UK move to the highest coronavirus alert level.

Boris Johnson is due to make a TV address on Monday evening where he is set to announce mass school closures and tight lockdown restrictions. MPs will be recalled to parliament from Wednesday.

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Tier 5, closed schools, national lockdown? The new Covid rules England could face

As coronavirus spreads rapidly, what are the options for the government?

Pressure is building on the government to move rapidly to curb the currently rapid spread of coronavirus, with ministers indicating tougher rules for England could be imminent. So what new restrictions might be considered?

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Nicaragua’s Covid story far from truth | Letter

The country should not be held up as a shining example in its response to the pandemic, writes Dr Hilary Francis, who points to the failure to provide accurate data and firing of health workers

John Perry (Letters, 31 December) suggests that we should learn from the Nicaraguan government’s management of Covid. He doesn’t mention that 700 Nicaraguan health professionals wrote an open letter begging the government to acknowledge the extent of the crisis, or that at least 10 health workers have been fired for criticising the government response. In the absence of accurate government data, an independent citizen observatory has been established, which attempts to keep track of the rate of infection. They estimate 11,935 cases in the period to 23 December, nearly double the official number.

On 21 December, Nicaragua’s national assembly passed a law that gives President Daniel Ortega the right to unilaterally declare that citizens are “traitors to the homeland” and ban them from running for office. The new legislation ensures that elections, scheduled for November 2021, will not be free and fair. There are no lessons to be learned from Ortega’s policies, but Nicaragua’s descent into dictatorship demands much closer attention.
Dr Hilary Francis
Northumbria University

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Hospitals without walls: the future of digital healthcare

In the wake of Covid, doctors and designers are radically adapting their thinking about what a hospital can be and what it should deliver

St Mary’s hospital was slated for a £1bn redevelopment before the pandemic struck, with work due to start in 2027. The main emergency and specialist hospital serving north-west London will still get its upgrade, but it might look quite different now. “Covid-19 has dramatically changed things,” says James Kinross, a surgeon who works at St Mary’s and sits on its redevelopment planning committee.

Before the pandemic, Kinross says, the committee’s goal was to improve the efficiency of existing care pathways; now it’s to rethink those pathways entirely. St Mary’s is a test case, but the shape of healthcare is being reconsidered everywhere and that has major implications for the way hospitals will look in future.

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What difference will Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine make in UK?

We look at how the introduction of a new vaccine in the fight against Covid will work

The Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine is central to the government’s plans for ending social distancing in the UK and returning to some sort of normality. It has invested in seven different vaccines, but the biggest order is for 100m doses of the AstraZeneca jab, most of which will be manufactured in the UK. While the prime minister was jubilant that the UK was first in the world to approve the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine, he is now able to claim a British triumph. More to the point is the ease of use of the AstraZeneca vaccine. Unlike Pfizer’s, it does not have to be kept in the long term at -70C. Pfizer’s vaccine can be stored in a fridge for five days, but AstraZeneca’s can be kept for months at fridge temperature, which is 2-8C and will be easy to take to care homes to administer to residents, the first priority group for vaccination.

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Boris Johnson on tier 4: ‘No one regrets these measures more than I do’ – video

The prime minister said now was a ‘critical moment’ to take action and ‘redouble efforts’ to contain the rapid spread of the new variant of coronavirus. Boris Johnson went on to explain that the restrictions would affect the return to schools for students in the worst affected areas, but expressed hope that the situation would be 'much better' in April, if vaccination programmes are successful in coming months


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More data needed before giving just one vaccine dose, says Covid adviser

Tony Blair and others make argument for giving more people a single jab rather than two

A senior scientific adviser has said more data is needed before the government can adopt a proposal to give as many people as possible a single dose of a Covid vaccine rather than preserving stocks so there is enough for a second jab.

The former prime minister Tony Blair and Prof David Salisbury, a former director of immunisation at the Department of Health, backed the idea on Wednesday, saying second shots should be given only when more stock is available.

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Lorry drivers blare horns in protest at border backlog in Kent – video

About 1,500 lorries are stuck in Kent after France imposed a ban on any accompanied freight or cargo entering the country from Britain because of the new coronavirus variant discovered in the UK. The move triggered government crisis plans at Dover and other major pinch points, with some drivers redirected to a nearby airfield to ease congestion on the roads

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Covid: France to reopen UK border for French and lorry drivers, reports say

Professionals and French nationals will have to provide negative Covid test before crossing

France is expected to reopen its border with the UK but only to its own nationals, French residents and professionals such as truck drivers, all of whom will have to provide a recent negative test, France’s public broadcaster has reported.

Britons or other non-French nationals with a permanent residence in France will be able to return, but the border is set to remain closed to all other non-French citizens in the UK, France Info said. It was not yet clear how long the measures would be in place.

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How KK Shailaja and her ‘Covid brigade’ won a victory against the virus

Fewer coronavirus patients have died in the state of Kerala than anywhere else in India. No wonder Vogue India named its health minister ‘leader of the year’

By mid-May, the Indian state of Kerala had contained the first wave of Covid-19, earning praise for the quick thinking and joined-up response of its health minister, KK Shailaja, and her team. By July, however, there were suggestions that those plaudits had been premature, and that Kerala’s Covid-19 response had come unstuck. Had it?

Shailaja Teacher – as the 64-year-old minister is affectionately known – had been expecting a surge in infections once India’s lockdown was lifted later in May. Kerala, home to 35 million people, has the country’s most robust health systems, but it is one of India’s poorer states, with one of its oldest populations. About 17% of workers leave to find jobs in neighbouring states, and there were fears about what would happen when, inevitably, these migrants returned. The authorities knew they could not keep Kerala’s borders shut or, given that the state relies on imports, keep it isolated from its neighbours.

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New Covid variant in UK: spreading Christmas fear?

B117 is more transmissible than original virus, but there is no evidence it makes people sicker

If a new virus sounds scary, a new mutating virus sounds scarier still. In Kent in September, scientists now believe, somebody with Covid was the unlucky first person to pass on a variant form of the coronavirus that is maybe as much as 70% more transmissible than the version we have been used to.

The exponential recent rise in cases now blamed on that incident and the UK government response have sparked alarm around the world, with other countries banning flights into the UK for at least 48 hours while everyone figures out what is going on.

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A Christmas pandemic like no other? They thought that in 1918

The post-first world war flu outbreak also came in waves and led to school closures and face-mask rows

This is not the first time that a pandemic has gripped the holiday season. In December 1918, preparations for the first Christmas without war in four years took place in the midst of the worst pandemic since the Black Death.

The 1918-19 influenza, like Covid-19, came in waves. The deadliest began in autumn, peaked in late November and continued through the first weeks of December. It struck hundreds of millions and killed tens of millions worldwide.

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Covid: tough UK restrictions to last until February at least, say experts

With 35,300 more cases recorded on Thursday, scientists say next two to three months will be harsh

Tough coronavirus restrictions are expected to be in place across much of the UK until at least February, experts have said, as they warned of a “harsh” two to three months ahead.

More than 35,300 positive cases were recorded on Thursday – including a backlog of 11,000 from Wales - with infection rates increasing in many parts of the country, while rising Covid hospital numbers stand at more than 18,000. In the first wave the peak for UK hospitalisations was 21,683.

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New variant of coronavirus identified in UK, Matt Hancock says – video

Health secretary suggests that variant could be linked with the rapid spread of the virus in south-east England, although it was highly unlikely a vaccine would not work against it

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UK Covid self-isolation period set to be reduced to 10 days

Chief medical officers of all four UK nations expected to formally announce change later on Friday

Governments across the UK are to announce a reduction in the coronavirus self-isolation period, from 14 to 10 days, it is understood.

It is expected the chief medical officers of all four UK nations will formally announce the change later on Friday.

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Welsh secondaries and colleges to shut on Monday to stem Covid spread

Learning will move online, in contrast to England’s plans for mass testing of students

Secondary schools and colleges in Wales will close to almost all students next week and lessons will move online in an effort to stem the growing spread of coronavirus, the Welsh government has announced.

The Welsh education minister, Kirsty Williams, said the public health situation in Wales was deteriorating and she had been advised by the chief medical officer that learning should be moved online for secondary school pupils as soon as possible.

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