Truss and Kwarteng will face fury of Tory MPs in week of crisis meetings

The PM and chancellor will try to stop panic spreading through the party after their high-risk economic plan threatens a ‘death spiral’

The prime minister, Liz Truss, and the chancellor, Kwasi Kwarteng, will face the wrath of Tory MPs at a succession of crisis meetings in parliament this week as their high-risk economic policies hit their poll ratings and spread panic in all wings of the party.

After a turbulent first five weeks at No 10 and an ill-disciplined, chaotic annual conference in Birmingham last week, Truss is expected to address the 1922 Committee of Tory backbenchers on Wednesday evening after taking on Keir Starmer at prime minister’s questions.

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Why OBR forecast is being held back until Kwarteng’s next fiscal plan

Huge policy changes are needed to get UK back on track – so early publication would give an incomplete picture

The message the government wanted to get out was clear. After less than a month as prime minister, Liz Truss had converted from vocal scourge of Treasury orthodoxy to an active supporter.

Given the fallout in financial markets after the not-so-mini-budget, Truss and her chancellor, Kwasi Kwarteng, laid on a heavily stage-managed meeting on Friday with officials from the Office for Budget Responsibility, the Treasury’s independent economic forecaster, to try to smooth over the mess.

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Treasury to delay publishing OBR forecast by six weeks after 7 October delivery – UK politics live

Budget watchdog to give assessment of fiscal plans next week but public will have to wait until chancellor’s November statement

Following a meeting with the prime minister, Liz Truss, and the chancellor, Kwasi Kwarteng, the Office for Budget Responsibility has confirmed it will deliver an initial forecast on 7 October.

A spokesperson for the OBR said:

[The forecast] will, as always, be based on our independent judgment about economic and fiscal prospects and the impact of the government’s policies.

We discussed the economic and fiscal outlook, and the forecast we are preparing for the chancellor’s medium-term fiscal plan.

We will deliver the first iteration of that forecast to the chancellor on Friday 7 October, and will set out the full timetable up to 23 November next week.

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Truss and Kwarteng to hold back OBR forecasts for six weeks

PM and chancellor say they will not publish projections until late November despite them being ready next week

Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng will refuse to release forecasts from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) until more than six weeks after receiving them, despite calls for them to be published as soon as possible.

The prime minister and chancellor said they would only publish the independent forecasts on 23 November alongside a fiscal statement, despite them being ready on 7 October.

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‘Fiscal sustainability’ plus rising borrowing costs could add up to cuts

To make the sums work, some suggest Kwasi Kwarteng may include deep spending reductions in his medium-term fiscal plan

When Kwasi Kwarteng met City figures on Tuesday, the Treasury said he had “reiterated the government’s commitment to fiscal sustainability”: though the grim faces of attendees in the official photos suggested they may not have been terribly reassured.

Some analysts are now warning that with borrowing costs rising sharply, and the chancellor determined not to water down his radical tax plans, “fiscal sustainability” points to one thing: spending cuts.

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Kwasi Kwarteng urged to allow release of OBR forecasts with mini-budget

Tory chair of Treasury committee says independent forecasts vital to provide reassurance to markets

The Tory chair of the Treasury select committee has urged Kwasi Kwarteng to allow independent forecasts for the public finances to be published alongside his mini-budget on Friday.

Mel Stride released a strongly worded statement urging more clarity around the effects of the new chancellor’s fiscal interventions.

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Economic watchdog confirms it could scrutinise Truss’s cost of living plans

MPs say it is vital tax and spending measures proposed by potential new prime minister are examined by OBR

Liz Truss has been challenged to open up her prospective emergency tax cuts and spending plans to scrutiny if she becomes prime minister and makes immediate moves to tackle the cost of living crisis.

The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), which produces independent forecasts based on major fiscal announcements by the government, revealed preparatory work had been under way for about a month to publish fresh economic forecasts in September.

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Labour urges spending watchdog to assess impact of chancellor’s £21bn package

Shadow Treasury secretary asks Office for Budget Responsibility to examine Rishi Sunak’s emergency cost of living measures

Labour has called for an independent assessment of whether Rishi Sunak’s £21bn cost of living emergency package could cause inflation to rise even higher and a verdict on the fiscal impact of substantial borrowing.

Pat McFadden, shadow chief secretary to the Treasury, wrote to the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) to ask it to analyse the impact of the measures.

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Benefit rises will take 18 months to catch up with inflation, OBR chair tells MPs – UK politics live

Latest updates: warning comes as chancellor is to face Commons Treasury committee this afternoon amid criticism over his spring statement

Q: Is it right for trans women to be able to compete in women’s sports?

Starmer says that should be a matter for the sporting authorities.

I spent a lot of my working life dealing with violence against women and girls first-hand, and I know from that experience, just how important it is to fight for women and fight for equality.

We have had legislation in this country which makes it clear that in some circumstances, particularly at the moment under the law when you’ve gone through a process, you can be recognised in the gender of your choosing, that’s been the position for over a decade now ...

But I equally - I want to be really clear about this - I am an advocate of safe spaces for women.

I don’t think that discussing this issue in this way helps anyone in the long run.

What I want to see is a reform of the law as it is, but I am also an advocate of safe spaces for women and I want to have a discussion that is ... anybody who genuinely wants to find a way through this, I want to discuss that with, and I do find that too many people - in my view - retreat or hold a position of which is intolerant of others.

Of course there are circumstances and anybody who insults family members excites something quite emotional in all of us.

But, on the other hand, to go up and hit someone in that way is wrong, I’m afraid. It was the wrong thing to do.

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Coronavirus UK live: Lockdown could shrink GDP by 35% and see unemployment rise by 2m, says OBR

Coronavirus lockdown in the UK could last at least another month, as Dominic Raab says country has not passed the peak

From BBC Newsnight’s Lewis Goodall

NEW: OBR publishes an economic scenario (not forecast) for what might happen to the UK economy as a result of #Covid19. It assumes a 3 month lockdown.

Unemployment: ⬆️by 2 million.

GDP (2020) ⬇️ 13% in 2020.

If so, would be the worst economic contraction for a century.

Here is an excerpt from the report published by the Office for Budget Responsibility today looking at what impact the coronavirus lockdown could have on the economy. It says GDP could fall by 35% in the second quarter of the year.

Here is an extract.

In addition to its impact on public health, the coronavirus outbreak will substantially raise public sector net borrowing and debt, primarily reflecting economic disruption. The government’s policy response will also have substantial direct budgetary costs, but the measures should help limit the long-term damage to the economy and public finances – the costs of inaction would certainly have been higher ...

We do not attempt to predict how long the economic lockdown will last – that is a matter for the government, informed by medical advice. But, to illustrate some of the potential fiscal effects, we assume a three-month lockdown due to public health restrictions followed by another three-month period when they are partially lifted. For now, we assume no lasting economic hit.

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Brexit: Boris Johnson fails in bid to limit debate as MPs start considering early election bill – live news

Commons debating fresh attempt by government for December ballot

The Labour MP Stephen Doughty says he has tabled an amendment to allow 16 and 17-year-olds to vote.

I have now tabled my simple and straightforward #VotesAt16 Amendment. Thanks to all colleagues who have signed. The Government have unfortunately tried to make it as difficult to table, select and vote on amendments as possible. pic.twitter.com/xzxkKoDv6n

Ian Blackford, the SNP’s leader at Westminster, is speaking now.

He says the SNP has been accused of trying to obstruct Brexit. “Guilty as charged,” he says.

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