How UK government misrepresented Covid projections – explained

No 10 has admitted an ‘error’ in the way data was presented to make case for second lockdown

The UK Statistics Authority has rebuked the government over its lack of transparency around projected Covid-19 deaths and hospital admissions, saying it could cast doubt over official figures.

A range of estimates were used to make the case for a second English lockdown in a press conference on 31 October. However, the UKSA said “the data and assumptions for this model had not been shared transparently”, potentially undermining confidence in official figures.

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Coronavirus live news: mink-related strains infect 214 people in Denmark; Sweden hits record case high

One of Danish mink strains prompts country to cull all its mink; Sweden registers 4,697 new infections, highest since pandemic began

The Kremlin has said it is early to judge how effective Russia’s coronavirus restrictions are without lockdowns, as the country reported a record daily number of new Covid-19 infections.

Speaking to reporters on Friday, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that the increase in coronavirus cases to a daily high of 20,582 was alarming and that authorities would take action depending on how the situation developed.

New coronavirus restrictions came into force in Italy on Friday but from pavements dotted with coffee drinkers to lines of striking taxi drivers, the picture on the streets was different from the ghostly scenes of the first lockdown, Reuters reports.

The restrictions, which divide the country into three zones according to the severity of the latest outbreak, are less severe than the blanket measures imposed when the pandemic first took hold in March.

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France reports record 60,486 new cases; Russia saw 9,798 deaths in September – as it happened

France’s new infections more than 2,000 higher than previous record; Italy registers 37,809 new cases; Russia says Covid was main cause in 5,199 cases. This blog is now closed

NSW has reported one new case of locally transmitted Covid-19 in the 24 hours to 8pm last night.

Four cases were also reported in overseas travellers in hotel quarantine, bringing the total number of cases in NSW to 4,270.

Dr Michael Douglas provides a #COVID19 update for Saturday 7 November 2020. pic.twitter.com/T2q5LFhLy1

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Covid immune response faster and stronger post-infection, scientists say

Strongest evidence yet found of sustained defence in people who recover from coronavirus

Scientists have found the strongest evidence yet that people who recover from Covid may mount a much faster and more effective defence against the infection if they encounter the virus again.

Researchers at Rockefeller University in New York found that the immune system not only remembered the virus but improved the quality of protective antibodies after an infection had passed, equipping the body to unleash a swift and potent attack if the virus invaded a second time.

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Coronavirus live news: Italy reports 445 new deaths, highest daily toll since end of April

Daily Italian total comes as Piedmont, Calabria, Lombardy and Aosta Valley face new restrictions from Friday; three-week restrictions in Greece

The head of France’s public health service has said the coronavirus crisis in the country is getting worse and every day in the fight to slow the spread of infections counts.

“We’re facing a very high wave (of infections),” Jérôme Salomon told a news conference. “The epidemic is progressing. We must all slow the spread together.”

Salomon: "The situation is deteriorating. Every day counts. We have to break the chain of this epidemic. Each of us must act to put a brake on the virus." He is outlining the health safety measures. "The slightest doubt, take a test."

Greece has reported 2,917 new coronavirus cases, hitting a new daily peak hours after authorities announced a second nationwide lockdown is going into effect this Saturday, 7 November.

Thursday’s cases follow on the 2,646 cases reported on Wednesday, which was a new record. Authorities said infections have risen 20% in recent days.

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Tiny air pollution rise linked to 11% more Covid-19 deaths – study

Evidence is now strong enough that preventive action should be taken, scientists say

A small rise in people’s long-term exposure to air pollution is associated with an 11% increase in deaths from Covid-19, research has found. Another recent study suggests that 15% of all Covid-19 deaths around the world are attributable to dirty air.

The available data only allows correlations to be established and further work is needed to confirm the connections, but the researchers said the evidence was now strong enough that levels of dirty air must be considered a key factor in handling coronavirus outbreaks.

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Denmark announces cull of 15 million mink over Covid mutation fears

Mutated virus infects 12 humans, sparking concerns that effectiveness of future vaccine could be affected

The world’s largest mink producer, Denmark, says it plans to cull more than 15 million of the animals, due to fears that a Covid-19 mutation moving from mink to humans could jeopardise future vaccines.

At a press conference on Wednesday, the Danish prime minister, Mette Frederiksen, said 12 people are already infected with the mutated virus and that the mink are now considered a public health risk.

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Burst of radio waves in Milky Way probably came from neutron star

First fast radio burst found in our galaxy is traced to magnetar 30,000 light years away

For more than a decade, astronomers have puzzled over the origins of mysterious and fleeting bursts of radio waves that arrive from faraway galaxies.

Now, scientists have discovered the first such blast in the Milky Way and traced it back to its probable source: a small, spinning remnant from a collapsed star about 30,000 light years from Earth.

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Scientists hail earwax test for checking stress hormone levels

Researchers say cortisol sampling technique could transform diagnostics for people with depression


A test that uses earwax to measure levels of the stress hormone cortisol could “transform diagnostics and care for millions of people with depression or stress-related conditions”, scientists have said.

The researchers believe the test, which can be done at home without clinical supervision, may also have the potential to measure glucose or Covid-19 antibodies that accumulate in earwax.

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Rich states’ Covid deals ‘may deprive poor of vaccine for years’

Wealthy countries already have agreements for 3.73bn doses, with another 5m under negotiation, study finds

Governments in predominantly wealthy countries are negotiating to buy nearly 8.8bn doses of prospective Covid-19 vaccines in a “frenzy of deals” that could mean many poor countries would not get access to immunisation until at least 2024, a report says.

None of the 320-plus potential vaccines in development have been approved for use, but countries have already struck advance purchasing agreements for 3.73bn doses of the most promising candidates, with negotiations underway for another 5bn doses, the study by Duke University’s global health innovation centre calculated.

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Birx warns US entering ‘deadly phase’ of Covid, contradicting Trump’s message

Deborah Birx says ‘we are entering the most concerning and most deadly phase’ as Trump claims US is ‘rounding the corner’

White House scientific adviser Dr Deborah Birx warned the United States is entering a new “deadly phase” of the coronavirus pandemic, and urged an “aggressive” approach to containing its spread.

Birx gave the warning in a written memo delivered to top administration officials Monday. It is a direct contradiction of one of Donald Trump’s central, and false, closing campaign messages – that the US is “rounding the corner” on the pandemic.

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Coronavirus live news: France sees record new cases; WHO warns it’s ‘not too late’ to take critical action

Portugal considering state of emergency; Italy’s coronavirus strategy is ‘wasting time’, says scientific advisor; Germany begins ‘light lockdown’. Follow the latest updates.

In the UK Liverpool (otherwise known as the World’s Best City) is set to become the first to have mass test-and-trace operation. My colleagues Sarah Boseley and Jess Elgot write:

Up to half a million people in Liverpool will be tested for Covid-19 under the UK government’s first attempt to embark on city-wide mass testing.

Related: Liverpool to pioneer UK's first attempt at mass Covid testing

Indonesia has reported 2,973 new coronavirus cases in the last 24 hours, taking the total number of infections to 418,375, according to data from the country’s health ministry.

The country has also reported an additional 102 deaths, taking the total number of fatalities to 14,146.

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China changes school curriculum to reflect Beijing’s positive Covid narrative

Content added to classes will say the state ‘aways put the life and safety of its people first’

Chinese government-endorsed content about the pandemic and the “fighting spirit” of the country’s response will be added to school curriculum, the country’s ministry of education has said, in a move to enshrine the country’s narrative of success against the virus.

The content will be added to elementary and middle school classes in biology, health and physical education, history, and literature, and will “help students understand the basic fact that the Party and the state always put the life and safety of its people first”, the ministry said on Wednesday.

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Liverpool to pioneer UK’s first attempt at mass Covid testing

Up to 500,000 people in city will be tested in bid to measure feasibility of mass population screening

Up to half a million people in Liverpool are set to be tested for Covid-19 under the UK government’s first attempt to embark on city-wide mass testing and track down every case of the virus.

The Guardian also understands that the self-isolation period for those who test positive for coronavirus, and their contacts, could be cut from the current 14-day period to seven days as early as this week.

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UK coronavirus live: Starmer accuses Johnson of ‘catastrophic failure of leadership’ over England lockdown

Latest updates: PM tells MPs he makes no apology for trying to avoid a nationwide lockdown

Ruth Davidson, the former Scottish Conservative leader, and current Tory leader in the Scottish parliament, is confident that Boris Johnson was making a concession to Scotland (and the other devolved administrations too, presumably) on furlough. See 5.34pm.

Under questioning from @Douglas4Moray, PM gives reassurance that furlough is available to devolved administrations now and in the future https://t.co/2aE8rEtEDj

In the Commons Douglas Ross, the Scottish Conservative leader, asked if Scotland could access the furlough scheme beyond November.

Johnson said the furlough scheme was a UK-wide scheme.

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What is the science behind England’s second national lockdown?

PM was presented with some alarming data – with one model forecasting up to 4,000 Covid deaths a day next month

England is preparing to enter a second national lockdown after scientific advisers warned that coronavirus infections and the numbers of people in hospital are rising steeply in many areas of the country. But what is the science behind the decision?

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Slovakia carries out Covid mass testing of two-thirds of population

Country aims to be one of first to test entire population of 5.4 million people for virus

Two-thirds of Slovakia’s population of 5.4 million people were tested for coronavirus over the weekend as part of a programme aimed at making it one of the first countries to test its entire population.

Antigen tests were carried out on 3.625 million people – of whom 38,359, or 1.06%, were found to be positive.

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T-cell Covid immunity ‘present in adults six months after first infection’

Study suggests white blood cell levels higher in people who had symptoms

Cellular (T-cell) immunity against the virus that causes Covid-19 is likely to be present within most adults six months after primary infection, with levels considerably higher in patients with symptoms, a study suggests.

The data offers another piece of the puzzle that could be key to understanding whether previous Sars-CoV-2 infections – the virus behind Covid-19 – can prevent reinfection, and if so, for how long.

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Why is Europe yet again at the centre of the coronavirus pandemic? | Laura Spinney

Strategies for exiting spring lockdowns did not work, and goodwill leached away, allowing infection rates to rise

Last week Europe registered 1.5m new cases of Covid-19 – a record – making it once again the centre of the pandemic. The UK is not exempt, and England will enter a new lockdown from Thursday 5 November. From the outside, it might seem the continent is in the grip of a second wave that is ramping rapidly towards its peak. But it is not one wave, it’s many local waves, and that is crucial in understanding how to rein it in and prevent the same thing happening again.

Though there is some tentative evidence that the virus itself has undergone a change since the summer, there is none to suggest that this change has affected either the transmissibility or the severity of the disease. Nor can the change explain the synchronous surges in all parts of the continent.

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