Victoria reports record cases and Virgin Australia crew member tests positive – as it happened

NSW passes the 90% first-jab milestone for its 16-plus population and reports 580 new cases. This blog is now closed

Looks like there was another earthquake overnight near the Vic-SA border.

Not quite as large as the one in Victoria a few weeks ago.

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Could the global Covid death toll be millions higher than thought?

A data scientist and economics student joined forces in search of the real pandemic death toll – and the results are startling

For the past 18 months, hunkered down in his Tel Aviv apartment, Ariel Karlinsky has scoured the web for data that could help him calculate the true death toll of Covid-19.

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‘Covid toe’ may be side-effect of immune response, says study

Chilblain-like inflammation causes redness on hands and feet and can last for months

The skin condition known as Covid toe may be a side-effect of the immune system’s response to fighting off the virus, according to a study.

The symptom results in chilblain-like inflammation and redness on the hands and feet, with the condition sometimes lasting for months at a time. It typically develops within a week to four weeks of being infected and can result in toes and fingers becoming swollen or changing colour.

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How New Zealand snookered itself by calling time on its Covid elimination strategy | Lew Stoddart

By granting freedom as case numbers rise, Jacinda Ardern has diverged from the nation’s understood strategy of aligning policy with expert consensus

The New Zealand government called time on its world-leading Covid-19 elimination strategy on Monday, announcing a suite of measures that grant Aucklanders greater freedom after seven weeks of community transmission, despite experts urging tighter restrictions. In doing so, the government has snookered itself in three mutually-reinforcing ways: on social license, on enforcement, and on the economy.

New Zealand’s strategy depends on social license, and people feeling like they understand and are part of the system, and can contribute to its success, knowing others will be prevented from undermining their efforts.

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Coronavirus live news: California deploys National Guard; Pfizer jab ‘highly effective’ against hospitalisations

Extra help called in for overwhelmed hospitals in California; two doses of Pfizer/BioNTech about 90% effective at preventing hospitalisations for at least six months, research reveals

Senegal has had only a handful of new daily Covid infections so far this week, with only two cases yesterday – the lowest number since the pandemic reached the country.

“Two cases were recorded today, the lowest ever recorded,” said the health ministry spokesperson Ngone Ngom. “They were in the past seven, 10 cases, but from the top of my head I think this is the lowest.”

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Why are so many pregnant women not taking the vaccine?

Only 31% of pregnant Americans are fully vaccinated. I felt responsible for this bean-like bundle forming in my body. But the conflicting advice made it hard for me to decide

These are the first three things I did when I found out I was pregnant in February. I took about six more tests. Then, I called the doctor’s office to make an appointment. A few days later, I signed up for a Covid-19 vaccine. I stood in line, freezing, at a high school in Coney Island to get my shot.

Deciding to get the vaccine that same month was not easy – even as a former health reporter accustomed to deciphering medical journals. I felt a very visceral and personal responsibility toward this bean-like bundle forming in my body. There were only preliminary studies about vaccine safety – saying the vaccine was likely safe – but based on participants who didn’t know they were pregnant during trials. Gynaecologists and family physicians had not yet achieved full and public consensus on their recommendations as most have now.

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Covid live: Kremlin pleads for people to get jab; EU regulator backs mRNA booster for those with weak immunity

Russia’s daily cases at highest levels since January; EMA says people with weakened immune systems should get Pfizer or Moderna booster

The UK chancellor, Rishi Sunak, has not ruled out unemployment rising now the furlough scheme has ended. But he told Sky News this morning that the government is “throwing the kitchen sink” at helping people find new roles and learn new skills.

When it was put to him that there might be “significant rises” in unemployment now the scheme has come to a close, he said: “I said right at the beginning of this crisis it wasn’t going to be possible for me, or quite frankly any chancellor, to save every single person’s job.

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How Melbourne’s ‘short, sharp’ Covid lockdowns became the longest in the world

Australia’s second-largest city’s strategy has left it economically and psychologically depressed after initially succeeding in reducing case numbers to zero

It has been a long 19 months in Melbourne. As of Tuesday 5 October, Australia’s second-largest city will have been in lockdown for 246 days – overtaking Buenos Aires as the city that has spent the most cumulative days under stay-at-home orders.

By the time Melbourne’s current lockdown lifts at the end of the month, it will have spent 267 days in lockdown – 45% of the time since the coronavirus pandemic was declared on 12 March 2020.

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Coronavirus treatments: the potential ‘game-changers’ in development

After positive clinical trials for antiviral drug Molnupiravir, it joins other medicines that have shown promise

The first clinical trial results showing a positive effect for a pill that can be taken at home has been hailed as a potential gamechanger that could provide a new way to protect the most vulnerable people from the worst effects of Covid-19. Molnupiravir joins a growing list of medicines that have shown promise. Here are some of the main developments in treatments so far.

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Covid antiviral pill halves hospitalisations and deaths, maker says

If approved, Merck’s drug would be first simple oral medication shown to be effective against coronavirus

An antiviral pill was found to reduce hospitalisations and deaths by half in patients newly diagnosed with Covid-19, according to results announced on Friday.

If approved, the drug made by the US firm Merck and Ridgeback Biotherapeutics would be the first simple oral medication shown to be effective against Covid-19, which would mark a crucial advance in the fight against the pandemic. Other drugs, such as remdesivir, have been shown to be effective if given early, but all currently approved treatments need to be given as injections or IV infusions.

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Covid can infect cells in pancreas that make insulin, research shows

Results of two studies may explain why some people develop diabetes after catching the virus

Covid-19 can infect insulin-producing cells in the pancreas and change their function, potentially explaining why some previously healthy people develop diabetes after catching the virus.

Doctors are increasingly concerned about the growing number of patients who have developed diabetes either while infected with coronavirus, or shortly after recovering from it.

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‘A great loss’: tributes pour in for pioneering PNG female doctor who died from Covid

Naomi Kori Pomat, the first female doctor in her province, died in country’s first government-confirmed death of a health worker from virus

Tributes have poured in for a doctor in Papua New Guinea’s Western Province who died last week, in the country’s first death of a healthcare worker from Covid-19 confirmed by the government.

Dr Naomi Kori Pomat, 60, the director for curative health services at the Western Provincial Health Authority (WPHA), was medevaced to Port Moresby after contracting the virus and died on 19 September.

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Victoria has record number of cases and police swarm St Kilda protesters – as it happened

Western Australia upgrades travel ban against Victoria to ‘extreme risk’, the same category as NSW. This blog is now closed

This is where we’ll leave our live coverage of news for today. You can follow our live coverage of the AFL grand final here and our coverage of the NRL preliminary final here.

But first, let’s recap the day.

Related: AFL 2021 grand final: Melbourne Demons v Western Bulldogs – live!

A planned sixth day of protests in Melbourne was a flop but more are planned for tomorrow, AAP reports.

Police have snuffed out a sixth day of anti-lockdown and anti-vaccine protests in Melbourne, dispersing and arresting would-be demonstrators.

Hundreds of police lined St Kilda beach and arrested dozens of people on Saturday as protesters initially gathered at Luna Park.

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‘A bit of a mystery’: why hospital admissions for Covid in England are going down

Analysis: Experts say it is first time since start of pandemic that sustained decline is recorded out of lockdown

In early September, outbreak modelling for the government’s Sage advisers showed Covid hospitalisations had the potential to soar. If people rushed back to work and resumed all the socialising they had put on hold, the number of daily admissions in England could peak at 7,000 within six weeks. It was, in effect, a worst-case scenario, barring a dramatic waning of immunity or a troublesome new variant.

The optimistic scenario looked very different. Assuming a more gradual return to normality, the modelling had daily Covid hospitalisations rising slowly and slightly, topping out at nearly 2,000, before falling again in November. Now, even that looks overly gloomy. Over the past fortnight, hospitalisations have fallen in England, even as schools and offices reopened.

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CDC overrides advisory panel to back Pfizer booster for Americans with high-risk jobs

CDC advisory panel had only recommended boosters for elderly and some people with underlying medical conditions

The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has broken with advice from its own internal advisory panel to back a booster shot of the Pfizer and BioNTech Covid-19 vaccine for Americans aged 65 and older, adults with underlying medical conditions and adults in high-risk working and institutional settings.

The move came on Friday one day after an advisory panel to the agency did not recommend that people in high-risk jobs, such as teachers, and risky living conditions should get boosters. The panel had only recommended boosters for elderly and some people with underlying medical conditions.

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England’s Covid travel rules spark outrage around the world

Refusal to recognise vaccines given across Latin America, Africa and south Asia has been denounced as ‘discriminatory’

England’s Covid travel rules and refusal to recognise vaccines administered across huge swaths of the world have sparked outrage and bewilderment across Latin America, Africa and south Asia, with critics denouncing what they called an illogical and discriminatory policy.

The transport secretary, Grant Shapps, described England’s rules, unveiled last Friday, as “a new simplified system for international travel”. “The purpose is to make it easier for people to travel,” Shapps said.

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Big pharma fuelling human rights crisis over Covid vaccine inequity – Amnesty

Six companies warned not to put profit before lives as report shows less than 1% of almost 6bn doses have gone to low-income countries

Amnesty International has accused six pharmaceutical companies that have developed Covid-19 vaccines of fuelling a global human rights crisis, citing their refusal to sufficiently waive intellectual property rights, share vaccine technology and boost global vaccine supply.

After assessing the performance of six Covid-19 vaccine developers – Pfizer and BioNTech, Moderna, Johnson & Johnson, AstraZeneca and Novavax – Amnesty International claims that all are failing to uphold their own human rights commitments and warns they should not be putting profit before the lives of people in the world’s poorest countries.

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Australia Covid live news update: Victoria records 507 new cases and one death ahead of reopening roadmap release; pools to open across Sydney

Premier Dan Andrews is to release Victoria’s roadmap out of lockdown a day after protests in Melbourne, Sydney, Byron Bay and Brisbane. Follow updates live

The Queensland premier, Annastacia Palaszczuk, is holding a press conference in Brisbane. The state has recorded no new cases of Covid-19 in the community or in hotel quarantine.

Palaszczuk is urging people to get vaccinated after the state controversially made the Pfizer vaccine available to over 60s. She’s urging people to attend walk-in Pfizer clinics.

This is an interesting piece on the people for whom the end of Covid restrictions sparks fear rather than joy.

Racquel Sherry, 49 and based in Sydney, is immunocompromised and afraid.

In the roadmap to freedom, I hear nothing about people like me, other than as a qualifying postscript to the Covid deaths: ‘But they had an underlying health condition’.

Freedom day doesn’t include me.

Related: ‘Freedom day doesn’t include me’: for some, the end of lockdown will be a time of fear

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Nike and Amazon among brands advertising on Covid conspiracy sites

Household names may have unwittingly helped spread fake news, investigation reveals

Dozens of the world’s biggest brands, including Nike, Amazon, Ted Baker and Asos, have been advertising on websites that spread Covid-19 misinformation and conspiracy theories, it has emerged. The companies, as well as an NHS service, are among a string of household names whose ads appear to have helped fund websites that host false and outlandish claims, for example that powerful people secretly engineered the pandemic, or that vaccines have caused thousands of deaths.

Analysis of nearly 60 sites, performed by the Bureau of Investigative Journalism and shared with the Observer, found that ads were placed through the “opaque” digital advertising market, which is forecast to be worth more than $455bn (£387bn) this year.

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New Doherty modelling advises ‘medium’ Covid restrictions until Australia reaches 80% vaccination

Exclusive: Summary of sensitivity analysis to be presented at national cabinet says pandemic will continue to be ‘a fire fought on multiple fronts’

New Doherty Institute modelling presented to national cabinet warns that maintaining “medium” public health and social measures would be “prudent” until Australia reaches 80% vaccination if caseloads are high – with “medium” measures previously defined as including stay-at-home orders except for work, study and other essential purposes.

The institute – which conducted the modelling informing Australia’s four-phase reopening plan – has updated its work after a dispute erupted within the federation about whether or not it was safe to ease restrictions once 70% of Australians over the age of 16 were vaccinated.

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