Dealing with uncertainty about the Omicron variant | David Spiegelhalter and Anthony Masters

Caution is sensible when so much is unknown

The race is on to understand the new variant identified by scientists in South Africa and Botswana, dubbed Omicron (the next Greek letter was “nu”, but this could have been mistaken for “new”). Fears include greater spread, worse disease or reduced effectiveness of treatments and vaccines.

Increased transmission can arise from two factors. First, there is an intrinsic advantage, with a heightened “basic reproduction number” R0; in a susceptible population, that is the average number of people each case infects, although after 20 months of pandemic this has become a notional concept. It was around 3 for the original wild-type virus, compared to around 6 for Delta and possibly rather more for Omicron.

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Tourists bask on a battlefield as drug gangs fight over Mexican resort town

Tulum, jewel of the Mayan Riviera, risks emulating Acapulco, another once glamorous resort now overwhelmed by violence

Bright yellow police tape fluttered in the breeze outside a restaurant just off the main strip in the Mexican resort town of Tulum, as the lights of a nearby police truck flashed blue and red.

Troops in camouflage fatigues stood guard outside the deserted late-night eatery La Malquerida, “The Unloved” – the site of a gangland shooting that killed two female tourists and wounded another three holidaymakers.

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From pandemic to endemic: this is how we might get back to normal

Covid-19 is unlikely to be eradicated, experts say, but societies in the past have learned to live with diseases

First, the bad news. With unpredictable outbreaks still occurring around the world, and variants like Omicron raising questions about the virus’s contagiousness, we are very much still in a pandemic.

The good news: while it’s difficult to predict the exact timing, most scientists agree that the Covid-19 pandemic will end and that the virus will become endemic. That means the virus will probably never be eliminated entirely, but as more people get vaccinated and become exposed to it, infections will eventually arise at a consistently low rate, and fewer people will become severely ill. An area where vaccination and booster rates are high will probably see endemicity sooner than a region with lower rates.

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My role in clearing the man wrongly convicted for rape of Alice Sebold

Why didn’t the writer, the US justice system and the media ask more questions given the miscarriage of justice, asks the film producer whose investigation led to exoneration of Anthony Broadwater

 Anthony Broadwater, a 61-year-old resident of Syracuse, New York state, and former marine, was exonerated last week of the brutal rape, assault and robbery of best-selling author Alice Sebold. He was convicted in 1982.

Sebold was savagely attacked while walking home from a friend’s house late one night. Five months later, Sebold said she saw her attacker in Syracuse town centre.

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‘Wall of secrecy’ in Pfizer contracts as company accused of profiteering

US company faces scrutiny over Covid profits after UK agrees to secrecy clause

Ministers have agreed a secrecy clause in any dispute with the drugs manufacturer Pfizer over Britain’s Covid vaccine supply. Large portions of the government’s contracts with the company over the supply of 189m vaccine doses have been redacted and any arbitration proceedings will be kept secret.

The revelation comes as Pfizer is accused by a former senior US health official of “war profiteering’’ during the pandemic. In a Channel 4 Dispatches investigation to be broadcast this week, Tom Frieden, who was director of the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention under Barack Obama, said: “If you’re just focusing on maximising your profits and you’re a vaccine manufacturer … you are war profiteering.”

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The Observer view on Russia’s threat to Ukraine | Observer editorial

Putin regards Ukraine as stolen territory and as the US focuses on China and Covid, Moscow is waiting to strike

Vladimir Putin is an old-fashioned sort of guy. He yearns for the days when the Soviet Union was a great power. He still views western democracies as adversaries, to be confounded whenever possible. And he has never reconciled to the post-Soviet loss of cold war-era satellite republics in eastern Europe. This is especially true of Ukraine.

The Russian view that Ukraine is stolen territory to which it has a natural right has roots in tsarist times and before. Ukrainians (and Belarusians) were habitually called “little Russians”. Indigenous narratives stress a common history and common faith indissolubly linking two brotherly eastern Slavic races. Putin has repeatedly stated that “Russians and Ukrainians are one people”.

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Nagaland killings: rioting as Indian security forces shoot dozen civilians

Villagers burn army vehicles after coalminers were mistaken for insurgents, with Indian home minister promising full investigation

Angry villagers who set fire to army vehicles are among more than a dozen civilians killed by soldiers in India’s remote north-east region along the border with Myanmar.

An army officer said soldiers fired at a truck, killing six labourers returning home from work, after receiving intelligence about a movement of insurgents in the area.

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Finland is the world’s happiest nation – and I want to keep it that way, says prime minister

In a rare interview with foreign media, Sanna Marin says she is determined to defend human rights, despite asylum policy challenges

Equality, a well-funded education system and a strong welfare state are the secret to the success of the world’s happiest nation, according to Finland’s prime minister.

In a rare interview with foreign media, Sanna Marin – who briefly became the youngest world leader when she became prime minister of the Nordic nation in 2019 at the age of 34 – said Finland was committed to preserving its generous welfare state in an “environmentally sustainable way”, and saw the development and export of green technology as the key to its future prosperity.

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Covid antiviral pill molnupiravir/Lagevrio set for UK at-home trials

People most vulnerable to Omicron would reportedly be offered experimental pill within 48 hours of testing positive

The first at-home treatment for Covid-19 could reportedly be offered to UK patients before Christmas as an attempt to protect the most vulnerable from the Omicron variant.

The Sunday Telegraph reported that Sajid Javid is set to launch a national pilot of the Molnupiravir antiviral pill, marketed as Lagevrio.

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UK’s progress on Covid now squandered, warns top scientist

Sir Jeremy Farrar, director of Wellcome Trust, suggests emergence of Omicron variant means pandemic is far from over

The emergence of the Omicron variant shows that the world is “closer to the start of the pandemic than the end”, one of Britain’s most senior scientific figures has warned, as he lamented a lack of political leadership over Covid.

Sir Jeremy Farrar, the director of the Wellcome Trust who stepped down as a government scientific adviser last month, said the progress in combatting Covid-19 since its emergence was “being squandered”.

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Chris Cuomo fired by CNN for helping brother Andrew fight sexual misconduct charges

  • Primetime anchor was suspended on Tuesday
  • Network says ‘additional information’ has come to light

CNN has fired the primetime anchor Chris Cuomo for trying to help his brother, the former New York governor Andrew Cuomo, fight accusations of sexual misconduct which resulted in his resignation.

Announcing the firing on Saturday, CNN said “additional information” had come to light.

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Iran walks back all prior concessions in nuclear talks, US official says

  • Session was first with delegates from new Tehran government
  • Iran says aerial explosion over Natanz was air defence test

Iran walked back all compromises made in previous talks on reviving the 2015 nuclear deal, pocketed compromises made by others and asked for more in its latest proposals, a senior US state department official told reporters on Saturday.

Iran continues to accelerate its nuclear program in pretty provocative ways and China and Russia were taken aback at how far Iran had walked back its proposals in talks in Vienna, the official told reporters, speaking on condition of anonymity.

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Kenya: more than 20 drown as bus is swept away in flooded river

Vehicle travelling to wedding keels over and sinks in fast-flowing waters in Kitui County

More than 20 people drowned on Saturday when a bus travelling to a wedding in Kenya was swept away by fast-flowing waters as it tried to cross a flooded river.

Onlookers screamed as the yellow school bus hired to take a church choir and other revellers to the ceremony in Kitui County keeled over and sank as the driver tried to navigate the surging waters.

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Indonesian Semeru volcano spews huge ash cloud – video

A sudden eruption from the highest volcano on Indonesia’s most densely populated island of Java left several villages blanketed with falling ash.

The eruption was accompanied by a thunderstorm that spread lava and smouldering debris, which formed thick mud. The event triggered panic among locals and caused one death

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Covid news: Boris Johnson reported to police over No 10 parties, South Korea cases and deaths at new high

Follow all the day’s coronavirus news from around the world as it happens

UK government officials and scientific advisers believe that the danger posed by the Omicron variant may not be clear until January, potentially allowing weeks of intense mixing while the variant spreads.

Across Westminster, invitations to Christmas drinks are landing in embossed envelopes or on WhatsApp groups. Departmental staff parties are set to take place, as well as a reception for journalists with Rishi Sunak at No 11. Even Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves are hosting a joint bash.

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Indonesia: death toll rises to 13 after eruption of Semeru volcano

Dozens more were injured when the highest volcano on densely populated Java island spewed a huge cloud of ash into the air

The death toll from the eruption of the Semeru volcano on Indonesia’s Java island has risen to 13, with nearly 100 others injured, the country’s disaster mitigation agency has said.

Mount Semeru, the highest volcano on Indonesia’s most densely populated island of Java, spewed thick columns of ash more than 12,000 meters into the sky on Saturday, with searing gas and lava flowing down its slopes and triggering panic among people living nearby.

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The Last Matinee review – carnage in the aisles in cinema-set giallo-style slasher

Maximiliano Contenti’s horror flick attempts to unpick voyeurism but lacks the sophistication of others in the genre

Nostalgia for idiosyncratic analogue film style is the simplest explanation for the recent giallo revival – but maybe there’s more to it than that. This most stylised of horror modes is perfect for our over-aestheticised age, so the newcomers – such as Berberian Sound Studio, Censor and Sound of Violence – make artists and viewers accessories to violence, often unleashed through that giallo mainstay, the power of the gaze. Set almost entirely in a tatty Montevideo rep cinema, Uruguayan slasher The Last Matinee joins this voyeuristic club, even if it ends up more in the raw than the refined camp.

On a rainswept night in 1993, engineering student Ana (Luciana Grasso) insists on taking over projectionist duties for a screening of Frankenstein: Day of the Beast (an in-joke – it was released in 2011 and was directed by Ricardo Islas, who plays the killer here). She shuts herself in the booth, trying to ignore the inane banter of usher Mauricio (Pedro Duarte) – but neither have noticed a heavy-set trenchcoated bogeyman enter the auditorium to size up that night’s film faithful: three teenagers, an awkward couple on a first date, a flat-capped pensioner and a underage kid stowaway (Franco Durán).

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Police treated us like criminals, say families of girls trafficked to Islamic State in Syria

British authorities accused of interrogating parents who came seeking help when their daughters went missing

Details of how police attempted to criminalise British families whose children were trafficked to Islamic State (IS) in Syria are revealed in a series of testimonies that show how grieving parents were initially treated as suspects and then abandoned by the authorities.

One described being “treated like a criminal” and later realising that police were only interested in acquiring intelligence on IS instead of trying to help find their loved one. Another told how their home had been raided after they approached police for help to track down a missing relative.

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I was told the 12 steps would cure my addiction. Why did I end up feeling more broken?

In this quasi-religious programme, ‘working the steps’ is the remedy for any problem, but for me the cracks soon started to show

Eight of us sat together in a circle in a wooden shed, an outbuilding at a large country house, somewhere in the south of England. The door was ajar, and spring light flooded the room. “Can anyone name any treatment methods for addiction, other than the 12 steps?” asked a counsellor.

Cognitive behavioural therapy?” offered a patient.

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‘I don’t like mandates’: Germans and Austrians on new Covid measures

People give their views on compulsory jabs and restrictions on those have not been vaccinated

The German government has announced a lockdown for the unvaccinated and is considering making Covid vaccines mandatory, after weeks of record infections in the country and much of German-speaking Europe.

In Austria, thousands of people have taken to the streets in recent weeks to protest against a string of measures: from February, the government will be introducing compulsory vaccines for all, with exemption for those unable to receive a jab on medical grounds.

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