We attacked Iran with no clear plan for regime change, Israeli security sources say

If regime holds, control of enriched uranium may be ultimate measure of US-Israeli success, insiders say

Israel did not have a realistic plan for regime change when it attacked Iran, multiple Israeli security sources have said, with expectations that airstrikes could lead to a popular uprising having been driven by “wishful thinking” rather than hard intelligence.

Iran has survived nearly two weeks of bombing raids and the assassination of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and Trump is publicly contemplating ending the increasingly costly war.

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We attacked Iran with no clear plan for regime change, Israeli security sources say

If regime holds, control of enriched uranium may be ultimate measure of US-Israeli success, insiders say

Israel did not have a realistic plan for regime change when it attacked Iran, multiple Israeli security sources have said, with expectations that airstrikes could lead to a popular uprising having been driven by “wishful thinking” rather than hard intelligence.

Iran has survived nearly two weeks of bombing raids and the assassination of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and Trump is publicly contemplating ending the increasingly costly war.

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Thursday briefing: What an Iran negotiator thinks could happen next – and why Trump still has an off-ramp

In today’s newsletter: Robert Malley, who led talks for the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, helps make sense of the war

Good morning, and apologies for the interruption to your usual programming. Stepping out from behind the editing desk to write today’s newsletter feels somewhat like a player-manager throwing himself on to the pitch, but I’ll try not to destabilise your morning routine too much. Lord knows, the world doesn’t need any more chaos.

Since the US and Israel first attacked Iran two weeks ago, it’s been a scramble to keep up with events. The death of a supreme leader, speculation about his successor, global implications ranging from oil price spikes to drones raining down on once-safe cities like Doha and Dubai – the world has rarely felt so unstable.

Iran | Iran dramatically escalated its strategy of striking civilian infrastructure and transport networks across the Gulf on Wednesday, attacking commercial ships and targeting Dubai’s international airport as US and Israeli warplanes launched new waves of strikes on the Islamic Republic.

UK news | Keir Starmer overruled officials who warned of a “reputational risk” in making Peter Mandelson US ambassador, despite being handed a dossier of evidence about the peer’s relationship with the sex offender Jeffrey Epstein, documents reveal.

Artificial intelligence | Popular AI chatbots helped researchers plot violent attacks, including bombing synagogues and assassinating politicians, with one telling a user posing as a would-be school shooter: “Happy (and safe) shooting!”

Oil | The International Energy Agency is poised to call for the largest release of government oil reserves in its history to help calm the oil price shock triggered by the US-Israeli attacks on Iran.

UK politics | Keir Starmer warned his cabinet against an “overly deferential” approach to the Welsh, Scottish and Northern Irish governments, telling ministers they should be prepared to make spending decisions “even when devolved governments may oppose this”, according to a leaked memo.

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Countries must seek energy independence through renewables and nuclear, says John Kerry

Former US secretary of state says oil shock driven by war in Iran highlights dangers of reliance on fossil fuels

Countries must seek energy independence through renewable resources and nuclear energy for their national security, and to avoid the “choke points” of fossil fuel supply, the former US secretary of state John Kerry has warned.

The war in Iran has sent oil prices soaring, as refineries and fields have closed down in several Middle Eastern countries and many tankers are stranded in the strait of Hormuz, with economic impacts beginning to be felt around the world.

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Iranians living in UK tell Starmer that war will only strengthen Tehran regime

Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe among more than 100 signatories to letter urging PM not to get drawn further into the conflict

Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe is among three of Iran’s former political prisoners and more than 100 Iranians living in the UK who have urged the British prime minister not to get drawn further into the Iran conflict.

They are all signatories in a letter to Keir Starmer saying the way the war is being conducted is strengthening the regime in Tehran.

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Trump says Iran war is ‘very complete, pretty much’ as economic toll rises

President reassures Republicans that conflict is intended to be short lived but also says ‘we haven’t won enough’

Donald Trump has said that the war in Iran is “very complete, pretty much”, as the economic toll of the joint US-Israeli operation has risen, disrupting global oil trade and threatening to engulf the Middle East in a regional war.

Trump made the comments before a speech and press conference in Florida where he sought to emphasise that the US military campaign would be ending soon amid concerns from Republican allies that the US was being dragged into another long-term conflict in the region.

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Middle East crisis live: Mojtaba Khamenei chosen as Iran’s new supreme leader; oil prices soar past $100 a barrel

Iran has named hardliner Mojtaba Khamenei as the country’s new supreme leader; Donald Trump says oil price spike ‘a small price to pay’ as markets tumble

Donald Trump has said a decision on when to end the war with Iran will be a “mutual” one he’ll make together with Benjamin Netanyahu, the Times of Israel has reported.

It said Trump also claimed in a brief telephone interview on Sunday that Iran would have destroyed Israel if he and Netanyahu had not been around. The US president said:

Iran was going to destroy Israel and everything else around it … We’ve worked together. We’ve destroyed a country that wanted to destroy Israel.

I think it’s mutual … a little bit. We’ve been talking. I’ll make a decision at the right time, but everything’s going to be taken into account.

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Iran’s new supreme leader has been selected, says deciding body

Israel says it will target any figure chosen to succeed Ali Khamenei, who was killed in US-Israeli strikes

The body in charge of selecting a new supreme leader for Iran says it has reached a decision – although the name was not immediately announced.

Israel has warned it would target any figure chosen to replace Ali Khamenei, who was killed in joint US-Israeli strikes on the first day of the war with Iran.

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Trump demands Iran’s ‘unconditional surrender’ as bombs pound Tehran and Beirut

US president again calls on Iranian people to overthrow government or face ‘absolutely guaranteed death’

Donald Trump has said only Iran’s “unconditional surrender” will bring an end to the offensive launched seven days ago, as the US and Israel carried out some of the heaviest bombardments so far in the conflict.

“There will be no deal with Iran except UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER,” Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform on Friday, when US strategic bombers were in action over Iran and intensive Israeli strikes in Lebanon forced more than 1 million people to flee their homes.

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‘The memories stay behind’: hundreds of thousands flee the Israeli bombs in Beirut

The normally vibrant southern suburbs are a ghost town, their throngs of people replaced by rubble and fires

The ding of half a million phones, a pause and a collective gasp: in an instant, more than 500,000 people had been made homeless.

Shooting in the air, panicked phone calls and honking filled the streets of Beirut as people began to flee. Thousands abandoned their cars and began the slow march to the sea, desperate to escape the Israeli bombs which they knew would soon fall on their homes, whether they were in them or not.

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Iran-backed militias intensify attacks against US, Israel and allies

Iraq emerges as key front in new and often clandestine confrontation after launching dozens of attacks

Iran-backed militias around the Middle East are intensifying attacks against Israel, the US and their allies, in retaliation for the ongoing joint US-Israeli offensive against Tehran as the war draws in new armed actors, threatening wider chaos and violence.

Israel and the US have targeted Iran’s network of militant groups, with Iraq emerging as a key front in this new and often clandestine confrontation.

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Israel orders more than 500,000 people to evacuate Beirut’s southern suburbs

Instruction comes as Israel continues to bomb Lebanon and Iran, while Tehran launches retaliatory strikes

The Israeli military has ordered the entire population of Beirut’s southern suburbs to evacuate, as it continued to bomb Lebanon and Iran, while Tehran launched retaliatory strikes against Israel and US bases across the region.

An Israel Defense Forces spokesperson told all residents of Beirut’s southern suburbs – more than 500,000 people – to “save your lives and evacuate your homes immediately”, before Israel launched airstrikes on what he described as Hezbollah targets. The area covered by the order included several hospitals and government ministries.

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Berlin film festival head to keep job after Gaza free speech row

The German government convened a crisis meeting after several prize winners at this year’s event condemned Israel’s actions against Palestinians

The American head of the Berlin film festival, Tricia Tuttle, will keep her job after a free speech row over Gaza, but the event will have to consider a new code of conduct to “fight antisemitism”, the German culture ministry has said.

Tuttle’s position came under threat after an awards gala at the end of the 76th edition last month in which several prize winners condemned Israel’s actions against Palestinians from the stage.

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Gavin Newsom likens Israel to ‘an apartheid state’ and decries war on Iran

California governor, promoting his memoir in LA, was asked if US should rethink military partnership with Israel

Gavin Newsom, the Democratic California governor, likened Israel to “an apartheid state” on Tuesday in comments sharply critical of the country’s joint war with the US against Iran.

Newsom, seen as a frontrunner for his party’s presidential nomination in 2028, made the comment during an appearance in Los Angeles to promote his book, Young Man in a Hurry: A Memoir of Discovery. He was asked if the US should rethink its military partnership with Israel.

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Pete Hegseth says US is ‘investigating’ deadly strike on girls’ school in Iran

US defense secretary was evasive when asked about the airstrike that Iranian officials say killed at least 165 students

Pete Hegseth, the US defense secretary, offered few details and was evasive when asked about the deadly strike on a girls’ school in Iran, saying only that the US was “investigating” the incident.

Iranian officials say the attack, which happened on Saturday, killed at least 165 students.

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Israel strikes Tehran and Beirut as Iran vows ‘complete destruction’ in region

Rapidly escalating war enters fifth day and spreads as far as Indian Ocean with sinking of Iranian vessel off Sri Lanka

Israel has carried out a wave of airstrikes on Iranian security targets and Hezbollah in Beirut as Tehran threatened the “complete destruction of the region’s military and economic infrastructure” as the rapidly escalating war entered its fifth day and reached as far as the Indian Ocean off Sri Lanka.

The Israeli military said it had hit buildings in Iran belonging to the Basij, the volunteer police arm of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), and buildings belonging to internal security forces. Police stations and IRGC headquarters in the Kurdish regions of north-western Iran were also razed by strikes, Kurdish media reported.

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US strikes on Iran triggered by Israel’s plan to launch attack, Rubio says

Democrats disturbed by rationale that Trump ordered pre-emptive strikes out of concern about Tehran retaliation

Israel’s determination to attack Iran and the certainty that US troops would be targeted in response forced the Trump administration to take pre-emptive strikes, the secretary of state, Marco Rubio, said, in a new explanation for Washington’s surprise entry into the conflict.

The rationale drew divided reviews from top members of Congress who on Monday evening received the first briefing by the Trump administration since it ordered the air campaign to begin over the weekend.

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Middle East crisis live: Kuwait mistakenly shoots down three US fighter planes, as US says Iran’s ‘reckless’ attacks threaten regional stability

Israeli military says fighting Iran-backed Hezbollah could take ‘many’ more days; US crew bailed out safely after crash-landing, says Kuwait

Bahrain has said that one person was killed by shrapnel from an intercepted missile. The death of a foreign worker at Salman Industrial City, working on a boat there, marks the kingdom’s first reported fatality in the war.

Bahrain, home to the US navy’s 5th fleet, said it intercepted 61 missiles and 34 attack drones launched against it. It said some shrapnel had gotten through, striking buildings and the naval base.

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Israel strikes Lebanon after Iran ally Hezbollah fires missiles over border

Conflict spreads as militant group targets Israel over Ali Khamenei killing and IDF responds with Beirut strikes

Israel has carried out heavy airstrikes on the Hezbollah-dominated southern suburbs of Beirut after the Iran-backed Lebanese group launched missiles and drones towards Israel in retaliation for the killing of Iran’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei.

Residents of Beirut were woken by the sounds of about a dozen blasts at 3am as Israel struck three different locations in the south of Lebanon’s capital. Bombings continued into the late hours of the morning, with the area almost entirely deserted by the time of a strike at around noon.

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US-Israel war on Iran: Ayatollah Ali Khamenei confirmed dead by state media; Iran launches fresh strikes – latest reports

US president says Khamenei’s death is ‘justice for the people of Iran’ as he repeats call for regime change; Iran targets US bases in region

Loud explosions were heard early on Sunday near Erbil airport, which hosts US-led coalition troops in Iraq’s autonomous Kurdistan region, AFP reported. Thick black smoke was rising from the airport area.

On Saturday, US-led coalition forces downed several missiles and explosive-laden drones over Erbil.

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