Thursday briefing: What an Iran negotiator thinks could happen next – and why Trump still has an off-ramp

In today’s newsletter: Robert Malley, who led talks for the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, helps make sense of the war

Good morning, and apologies for the interruption to your usual programming. Stepping out from behind the editing desk to write today’s newsletter feels somewhat like a player-manager throwing himself on to the pitch, but I’ll try not to destabilise your morning routine too much. Lord knows, the world doesn’t need any more chaos.

Since the US and Israel first attacked Iran two weeks ago, it’s been a scramble to keep up with events. The death of a supreme leader, speculation about his successor, global implications ranging from oil price spikes to drones raining down on once-safe cities like Doha and Dubai – the world has rarely felt so unstable.

Iran | Iran dramatically escalated its strategy of striking civilian infrastructure and transport networks across the Gulf on Wednesday, attacking commercial ships and targeting Dubai’s international airport as US and Israeli warplanes launched new waves of strikes on the Islamic Republic.

UK news | Keir Starmer overruled officials who warned of a “reputational risk” in making Peter Mandelson US ambassador, despite being handed a dossier of evidence about the peer’s relationship with the sex offender Jeffrey Epstein, documents reveal.

Artificial intelligence | Popular AI chatbots helped researchers plot violent attacks, including bombing synagogues and assassinating politicians, with one telling a user posing as a would-be school shooter: “Happy (and safe) shooting!”

Oil | The International Energy Agency is poised to call for the largest release of government oil reserves in its history to help calm the oil price shock triggered by the US-Israeli attacks on Iran.

UK politics | Keir Starmer warned his cabinet against an “overly deferential” approach to the Welsh, Scottish and Northern Irish governments, telling ministers they should be prepared to make spending decisions “even when devolved governments may oppose this”, according to a leaked memo.

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‘Invasive’ AI-led mass surveillance in Africa violating freedoms, warn experts

Countries across the continent have spent more than $2bn on Chinese tracking technology that is not ‘necessary or proportionate’, new report finds

The rapid expansion of AI-powered mass-surveillance systems across Africa is violating citizens’ right to privacy and having a chilling effect on society, according to experts on human rights and emerging technologies.

At least $2bn (£1.5bn) has been spent by 11 African governments on Chinese-built surveillance technology that recognises faces and monitors movements, according to a new report by the Institute of Development Studies, which warns that national security is being used to justify implementing these systems with little regulation.

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European drivers face €220 a year jump in fuel costs due to Iran conflict, say experts

Exclusive: Oil at $100 a barrel means higher prices in the EU and UK, making savings for those with electric vehicles even greater, analysts say

European drivers face paying an extra €220 (£190) a year at the pumps because of the surge in oil prices caused by the war in Iran, analysts have warned. In the UK, a separate estimate puts the cost at an extra £140.

A sustained oil price of $100 a barrel, the level seen on Monday, would mean motorists in the EU paying €55bn more over a year, researchers at the Transport & Environment (T&E) thinktank estimated. That is the equivalent of an average of €220 for each driver, with higher-mileage drivers facing even bigger hikes. The assessment was made by comparing data from 2022, when Russia’s invasion of Ukraine pushed the oil price to the $100 mark, with data from 2017-2019.

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European drivers face €220 a year jump in fuel costs due to Iran conflict, say experts

Exclusive: Oil at $100 a barrel means higher prices in the EU and UK, making savings for those with electric vehicles even greater, analysts say

European drivers face paying an extra €220 (£190) a year at the pumps because of the surge in oil prices caused by the war in Iran, analysts have warned. In the UK, a separate estimate puts the cost at an extra £140.

A sustained oil price of $100 a barrel, the level seen on Monday, would mean motorists in the EU paying €55bn more over a year, researchers at the Transport & Environment (T&E) thinktank estimated. That is the equivalent of an average of €220 for each driver, with higher-mileage drivers facing even bigger hikes. The assessment was made by comparing data from 2022, when Russia’s invasion of Ukraine pushed the oil price to the $100 mark, with data from 2017-2019.

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Oil price tops $100 again as Iran strikes economic targets across Middle East

Vast release of emergency crude reserves fails to quell mounting fears around energy supply crunch, rattling global markets

Oil prices again topped $100 a barrel on Thursday as widespread Iranian attacks on Middle Eastern energy facilities overshadowed a vast release of government reserves.

As Donald Trump vowed to “finish the job” and press ahead with the US-Israel war on Iran, the country’s regime stepped up retaliatory strikes on economic targets across the region.

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Oil price tops $100 again as Iran strikes economic targets across Middle East

Vast release of emergency crude reserves fails to quell mounting fears around energy supply crunch, rattling global markets

Oil prices again topped $100 a barrel on Thursday as widespread Iranian attacks on Middle Eastern energy facilities overshadowed a vast release of government reserves.

As Donald Trump vowed to “finish the job” and press ahead with the US-Israel war on Iran, the country’s regime stepped up retaliatory strikes on economic targets across the region.

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Asia scrambles to confront energy crisis unleashed by Iran war – with no end in sight

From fuel caps to four-day work weeks, the Middle East conflict has left the world’s top crude oil importing region desperate to shore up supplies

Donald Trump has scrambled in recent days to reassure the world that the economic impact of his war on Iran can be contained.

Sure, one of the most important waterways in global trade has, in effect, been shut for almost two weeks – but it might reopen before long. In the meantime, US oil-related sanctions on “some countries” will be lifted. And besides, the entire conflict could be over soon.

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Asia scrambles to confront energy crisis unleashed by Iran war – with no end in sight

From fuel caps to four-day work weeks, the Middle East conflict has left the world’s top crude oil importing region desperate to shore up supplies

Donald Trump has scrambled in recent days to reassure the world that the economic impact of his war on Iran can be contained.

Sure, one of the most important waterways in global trade has, in effect, been shut for almost two weeks – but it might reopen before long. In the meantime, US oil-related sanctions on “some countries” will be lifted. And besides, the entire conflict could be over soon.

Continue reading...

Iran targets busiest international airport as top UN body demands halt to attacks on Gulf neighbors – AP News

  1. Iran targets busiest international airport as top UN body demands halt to attacks on Gulf neighbors  AP News
  2. Three cargo ships struck off Iran's coast, UK says, including one in Strait of Hormuz  CNBC
  3. Calls grow for Hormuz ship escorts as Iran escalates attacks  Axios
  4. Five vessels attacked in Gulf, Strait of Hormuz as war puts merchant ships on front lines  Reuters
  5. Live updates: Pentagon says first week of Iran war cost the US $11.3 billion, an AP source says  AP News
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Quit fossil fuels to stem deadly floods in Brazil’s coffee heartland, say scientists

Global heating linked to rising risk of extreme rain that causes devastating landslides and rising coffee prices

The record floods that have brought death and destruction to the heartland of Brazil’s coffee industry are expected to intensify if people continue to burn fossil fuels, analysis has shown.

Dozens of residents in the state of Minas Gerais have been buried alive in landslides or swept away as roads turned into rivers over the past month. Thousands more have been forced to evacuate their homes, while the wider, longer-term effects are likely to include higher prices for coffee across the world.

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Nations agree to release oil reserves as war in Iran hits global economy – The Washington Post

  1. Nations agree to release oil reserves as war in Iran hits global economy  The Washington Post
  2. IEA agrees to release record 400 million barrels of oil to address Iran war supply disruption  CNBC
  3. Oil continues to rise despite deal to release record amount of reserves  BBC
  4. U.S. to Release 172 Million Barrels of Oil From Strategic Reserves, Energy Dept. Says - The New York Times  The New York Times
  5. 'Unprecedented' agreement releases emergency oil reserves as gas prices spark concerns  Fox News
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Trump Targets Major Trading Partners With New Investigation – The New York Times – The New York Times

  1. Trump Targets Major Trading Partners With New Investigation - The New York Times  The New York Times
  2. Trump administration launches Section 301 trade probes into Mexico, China, EU, others  CNBC
  3. US trade probes could lead to new tariffs for EU, China  dw.com
  4. Trump administration launches new trade investigation  Axios
  5. White House takes first step toward permanent fix for illegal tariffs  The Washington Post
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Noma chef resigns amid shocking allegations of physical abuse of staff

René Redzepi also steps down from non-profit board after accusations of both physical and psychological abuse

René Redzepi, the head chef and co-founder of Noma, announced Wednesday he was resigning from his internationally acclaimed Copenhagen restaurant following allegations that he had physically abused his staff.

Redzepi had been facing protests in Los Angeles before a four-month pop-up that launched this week. His resignation comes after the New York Times detailed shocking allegations of physical and psychological abuse, including claims that he “punched employees in the face, jabbed them with kitchen implements and slammed them against walls”.

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Middle East crisis live: Iraqi tankers hit as Iran targets oil supplies; US orders petroleum reserve release in bid to calm markets – The Guardian

  1. Middle East crisis live: Iraqi tankers hit as Iran targets oil supplies; US orders petroleum reserve release in bid to calm markets  The Guardian
  2. Iran war live: Oil tankers hit in Iraq, Tehran sets 3 conditions for peace  Al Jazeera
  3. Oil tankers burn near Iraq as Iranian strikes defy Trump's claim to have 'won' the war  Reuters
  4. Two Tankers Attacked In Iraqi Waters, Oil Terminals Suspended  Bloomberg
  5. Iraq rescues more than 20 crew members from attacked foreign oil tanker: Report  Anadolu Ajansı
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Eight Arab, Islamic countries condemn Israeli closure of Al-Aqsa Mosque – Al Jazeera

  1. Eight Arab, Islamic countries condemn Israeli closure of Al-Aqsa Mosque  Al Jazeera
  2. 8 Muslim countries, including UAE, pan Israeli closure of Al-Aqsa amid Iran attacks  The Times of Israel
  3. Israel Closes Al Aqsa Mosque at Ramadan, Citing Wartime Safety Concerns  The New York Times
  4. Israel's closure of Al-Aqsa Mosque is an act of war  Middle East Eye
  5. Watchdog slams PA over claim of Israeli restrictions on Al-Aqsa for ‘Passover sacrifice’  JNS.org
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