Analysis: the Tory leader is unpopular for breaking lockdown rules but his departure may depend on options for his replacement

Timing is everything. Suspicions that Boris Johnson had broken lockdown rules nearly toppled him in January. Yet now the prime minister looks safe, even as suspicion becomes fact with the issuing of a fixed penalty notice by the police. Johnson’s strong response to the international crisis provoked by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine appears to have saved him for now, though with more fines probably still to come, and Sue Gray’s final report looming, his position remains perilous.

The lockdown party scandals have turned a lot of voters against Johnson. His average net approval ratings across seven national pollsters collapsed from -9 last September to -40 in January. At rock bottom, the prime minister’s ratings were as bad as Margaret Thatcher’s during the poll tax crisis or Gordon Brown’s at the height of the financial crisis. Johnson was less popular with voters in January than Jeremy Corbyn was during the 2019 election campaign. The Johnson brand as a politician with unique popular appeal looked completely shot.