Exit polls suggest support for Greens fell in Germany and France, leading to fears of weakening of climate ambitions

Green parties appeared to have shed seats in the European elections, exit polls from several countries suggested, raising fears that the continent may be on the verge of weakening its climate ambitions.

The first projections for the new European parliament showed the Green faction losing about 20 seats amid a broader shift to the right.

In Germany, a core Green stronghold, the party’s vote share appears to have nearly halved since the last election in 2019. Exit polls suggest it fell 8.5 percentage points from 20.5% to 12%. In France, where the far-right is leading and President Emmanuel Macron has called snap elections, support for the Greens fell by the same amount.

But the party scored smaller victories elsewhere. In Denmark exit polls put the Greens as the biggest party with 18%, while in Sweden they are expected to have secured a surprise gain of three seats. A Green-Left coalition looks to have narrowly beaten the far-right for first place in the Netherlands.

Bas Eickhout, one of the two lead candidates for the Green party, said he was not disheartened by the projected results and pledged to push for an acceleration of the Green Deal.

“I wouldn’t say that this is a referendum on the Green Deal itself,” said Eickhout, referring to a package of environmental policies whose cross-party support started to fray in the final months of the outgoing parliament.
“Even if that would be [the case], there are mixed results,” he added. “We have become the biggest in the Netherlands. Would you then say the Netherlands is in full support of the Green Deal – and Germany not? I think that’s too simplistic.”

The Greens did unusually well at the last elections in 2019 as student protestors led by Greta Thunberg forced climate change up the political agenda. But the faction is expected to lose votes as war and economic troubles crowd out environmental concerns in the minds of voters.

They could still play a key role in choosing the next EU Commission president, depending on the level of support for centrist parties.

In Germany, where the Greens are in a coalition government, the losses were met with disappointment from the party and climate activists. They have traditionally been buoyed by younger voters who in this election appear to have drifted to the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), as well as newer parties, according to polling data from public broadcaster ZDF.

Across Germany, the Greens’ biggest losses appear not to have gone to another party – but to people who did not vote at all.

“I think voters are giving very mixed signals,” said Eickhout, commenting on the reported shifts in young German voters.

He also said there was “one big lesson is that our biggest problem so far is that the Green Deal has been too much a Brussels agenda” and called for more debate in the 27 member states.