EU tipped to avoid recession after gas crisis eases

Economic growth forecast to be 0.8% in 2023 but households still face cost of living pressures

The EU is predicted to narrowly avoid recession as a result of a milder-than-expected energy shock, although households face difficult times ahead as cost of living pressures ease only gradually, the European Commission has said.

Economic growth for the 27 countries of the EU is forecast to be 0.8% in 2023, compared with a 0.3% projection last autumn, when fears of winter power outages and the rising cost of living ran high. In the 20-country eurozone, the economy will expand by 0.9% in 2023, boosted by a better-than-expected performance in Germany and Italy, as well as relatively stronger growth in Spain.

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Brexiters claim ‘sellout’ after Tories discuss rapprochement with EU

Nigel Farage, John Redwood and Lord Frost rail against news of senior Tories joining cross-party summit to tackle failings of Brexit

Prominent Brexit supporters have hit out at senior Conservative figures after the Observer revealed they had taken part in a private cross-party summit entitled: “How can we make Brexit work better with our neighbours in Europe?”

John Redwood, the prominent Brexit-supporting Tory MP, and Nigel Farage, the former leader of the UK Independence party, criticised those attending the summit at Oxfordshire’s Ditchley Park retreat, including the cabinet minister Michael Gove.

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Brexit is a self-inflicted wound of unparalleled severity | Phillip Inman

Quitting the EU has stalled business investment, making us reliant on workers who are now scarce. Hence rising wages, high inflation and increased interest rates. Result? A looming recession

Whenever Andrew Bailey, the governor of the Bank of England, talks about the economy, he is forced to mention the toll taken by Brexit.

Business leaders, initially reluctant to criticise the Tory decision to quit the EU, have begun to find their voice. Most recently, leading City figure Guy Hands called Brexit a “complete disaster” and a “bunch of total lies” that has harmed large parts of the economy.

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Belgian MEP arrested in ‘cash for influence’ inquiry

Police search Marc Tarabella’s safe deposit box and offices as part of anti-corruption investigation

A second MEP has been arrested as part of a criminal investigation into alleged bribery, corruption and money laundering at the European parliament.

Marc Tarabella of Belgium was taken in for questioning after police arrived at his home at about 6am on Friday, according to Belgian press reports. Tarabella has previously declared his innocence.

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EU urged to use frozen Russian assets to ‘cover costs of aggression’ in Ukraine

Poland and Baltic states say bloc should seize funds to start rebuilding country, amid questions of legality

Poland and the Baltic states have urged the EU to work on seizing frozen Russian state assets for the reconstruction of Ukraine “as soon as possible”, raising pressure to act on a legally fraught question.

In the run-up to a two-day EU summit that will discuss the Russian invasion, the leaders of Poland, Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia said that, “in order to be credible on this matter vis-a-vis Ukraine”, the bloc had to go beyond reiterating previous commitments and “accelerate our work in the council right now”.

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Brexit Northern Ireland protocol is lawful, supreme court rules

Judges reject legal challenge to UK-EU trade arrangements by group of unionist leaders

The Northern Ireland protocol is lawful, the supreme court has ruled, rejecting a legal challenge to the Brexit arrangements by a group of unionist leaders including the former first ministers the late David Trimble and Arlene Foster.

Five law lords presiding in the highest court in the UK unanimously dismissed the appeal on all three grounds including the claims that the Brexit trading arrangements breached the 1800 Act of Union and the Northern Ireland Act 1998.

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Boris Johnson agreed Brexit protocol knowing it was ‘mess’, says John Major

Johnson’s administration made promises over Northern Ireland deal that it knew were unworkable, former PM tells MPs

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John Major has launched a scathing attack on Boris Johnson’s handling of Brexit, saying his administration agreed to the Northern Ireland protocol despite knowing it was unworkable.

“That must be the first agreement in history that was signed by people who decided it was useless in the first place,” Major told a Westminster committee on Tuesday.

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EU institutions in row over leaking of details of potential Zelenskiy visit

Ukraine president reported to be planning trip to Brussels this week to meet EU leaders in person

Recriminations have broken out among EU officials after a possible visit by Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, to Brussels was leaked, raising concerns over his security.

Zelenskiy was reported to be planning a trip to Brussels this Thursday to meet EU leaders in person at a summit and address the European parliament in an extraordinary session.

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Negotiators make breakthrough in Northern Irish protocol dispute

Agreement on food and animal health checks ‘close to being done’, but no progress on trickier issues

EU and UK negotiators have made a breakthrough in reducing checks on goods moving between Great Britain and Northern Ireland, as part of efforts to resolve the long-running dispute over the Northern Irish protocol.

A senior EU official confirmed to the Guardian that an agreement on food and animal health checks was “close to being done” as part of a deal that would create red and green lanes at Northern Irish ports to differentiate between goods staying in the region and those moving south to the EU’s single market.

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Yes, the mood has shifted against Brexit. But the road back to Brussels is long and hard

Three years on, the reality of the split with the EU has changed minds. But dashed hopes could come to haunt Labour, too

Brexit is three years old and less popular than ever. More people are unhappy with Brexit outcomes to date, and pessimistic about the gains to come today than at any point in the Brexit process so far. “Rejoin” has opened up a double-digit lead over staying out in polls asking voters how they would choose in a second referendum on EU membership.

While voters have swung against Brexit before, the current shift is different. Earlier remain gains were driven by abstainers and those too young to vote in 2016 breaking against Brexit and by demographic changes which have slowly pulled the electorate in a pro-EU direction. The vast majority of leave and remain voters have hitherto stood by the choices they made in June 2016. That is now changing, and it is Brexiters who are reconsidering. One in five leave voters now say they would vote to rejoin the EU, while remain switching has stayed much lower. The scales of opinion are being tipped against Brexit by growing doubts among its original supporters.

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Sunak ‘risks full-scale trade war’ with Brussels by scrapping EU laws

Leading European politicians have warned that the prime minister’s plan to ditch EU legislation will trigger retaliatory countermeasures, including imposing tariffs on goods

Rishi Sunak’s plan to scrap thousands of EU laws by the end of this year risks triggering a full-scale trade war between the UK and Brussels, senior figures in the European Union have warned.

Letters from leading EU politicians, seen by the Observer, reveal deep concern that the UK is about to lower standards in areas such as environmental protection and workers’ rights – breaching “level playing field” provisions that were at the heart of the post-Brexit trade and cooperation agreement (TCA).

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Brexit causes collapse in European research funding for Oxbridge

Oxford and Cambridge universities, once given more than £130m a year in total by European research programmes, are now getting £1m annually between them

One of the UK’s most prestigious universities has seen its funding from a large European research programme plummet from £62m a year to nothing since Brexit, new figures show.

The latest statistics from the European Commission reveal that Cambridge University, which netted €483m (£433m) over the seven years of the last European research funding programme, Horizon 2020, has not received any funding in the first two years of the new Horizon Europe programme.

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EU leaders to dampen Ukraine’s hopes of fast-track EU membership

EU leaders will try to temper Kyiv’s expectations while avoiding negative public statements that could weaken morale

EU leaders will seek to cool Ukraine’s expectations of a fast track to membership at a summit with Volodymyr Zelenskiy on Friday, as the bloc spars over how much encouragement to give its war-torn neighbour.

The president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, and the head of the European Council, Charles Michel, are due to meet Zelenskiy in Kyiv on Friday for wide-ranging talks on the war, further sanctions on Russia and integrating Ukraine into the EU’s internal market.

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Virtual aid trip and a policy quiz: the European Commission tourist experience

Brussels exhibition is latest EU effort to appeal to the public by seeking to explain its work

There is a virtual reality plane trip, a quiz, a presentation from the world’s “most powerful woman”, and a souvenir photo: it is all part of the offer at one of the latest tourist attractions to arrive in Brussels – the European Commission exhibition centre.

Experience Europe, which has been open just under a year, seeks to explain the work of the commission, which proposes and enforces EU law, and for many is the epitome of “Brussels”. It is the latest example of how the bloc is trying to appeal to the public. Stung by criticism of being an elite project with bamboozling and opaque processes, the EU has sharpened up communication efforts in the last 15 years. The European parliament opened a visitors’ centre, the Parlamentarium, in 2011, followed by a museum dedicated to European history in 2017.

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EU pledges to double military aid programme for Ukraine

EU to train an extra 15,000 soldiers and prepare new sanctions against Russia

The EU has pledged to double a military aid programme for Ukraine by training an extra 15,000 soldiers as part of a blizzard of announcements aimed at showing that it will “stand by Ukraine for the long-haul”.

Speaking at the start of a two-day trip to Kyiv, the European Commission president, Ursula von der Leyen, reiterated that the EU aimed to have a tenth package of sanctions against Russia in place by 24 February, the first anniversary of the invasion ordered by Vladimir Putin.

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M&S joins calls for EU to restrict harmful tuna fishing methods in Indian Ocean

Retailer and green groups warn of ‘high environmental cost’ of fish aggregating devices to tuna stocks and other endangered marine life

The EU is under pressure to significantly restrict its huge fleet of fishing vessels from using “fish aggregating devices” that make it easier to catch huge numbers of fish and contribute further to overfishing.

A letter signed by Marks & Spencer and more than 100 environmental groups, including the International Pole and Line Foundation, warns EU officials that the devices (FADs) are one of the main contributors to overfishing of yellowfin tuna in the Indian Ocean, because they catch high numbers of juveniles.

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MEPs launch site for EU officials to report ‘shady lobbying’

Exclusive: Dutch MEP hopes site will give early warning of suspicious tactics such as use of front organisations

A group of MEPs are launching a website for European parliament staff and EU officials to raise the alarm about “shady lobbying” by big tech firms and other interest groups.

Paul Tang, a Dutch Social Democrat MEP who is co-leading the initiative, said the “lobby leaks hotline” would be an early warning system and was necessary as the parliament had faced “shady lobbying” from powerful tech companies seeking to influence its decisions. He cited practices such as so-called astroturfing, where large companies use front organisations to represent their interests by the back door.

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Rishi Sunak plans US trip with Northern Ireland high on agenda

UK officials in flurry of diplomacy seeking agreement with EU over protocol, but play down talk that deal is close

Rishi Sunak is considering a trip to visit Joe Biden in the US as talks between the UK and EU over the Northern Ireland protocol intensify.

The prime minister’s officials are drawing up plans for him to travel to Washington in the coming weeks to discuss a range of topics, including Ukraine, economic security and technology.

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No 10 refuses to deny Sunak was given informal warning about Raab’s behaviour before he made him deputy PM – live

Dominic Raab under increasing pressure as civil servants’ union calls for him to be suspended until bullying inquiry concludes

MPs have been told that paramilitary groups in Northern Ireland have coerced young people with drug debts to take part in rioting, PA Media reports. PA says:

A community worker gave an example of a user’s debt being reduced by £80 for doing so.

Megan Phair, coordinator of the Journey to Empowerment Programme and member of the Stop Attacks Forum, said both loyalist and dissident republican groups use the tactic to force people on to the streets.

It’s time for the prime minister to come out of hiding and face the music. The public deserves to know the truth about what he knew and when, including the full disclosure of any advice given to him by the Cabinet Office.

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No 10 warns public of ‘significant disruption’ tomorrow because of mass strikes – as it happened

This blog has now closed, you can read more on this story here

Jacob Rees-Mogg, the former business secretary, was not exactly on message in his Sky News interview with Kay Burley this morning. As well as implying that he thought the bullying inquiry into Dominic Raab was a mistake (see 10.37am), he made at least three other comments that suggest Rishi Sunak does not have the enthusiastic support of all his backbenchers.

Rees-Mogg said that Sunak was performing “perfectly competently” as PM. Asked how he was doing, Rees-Mogg replied: “I think he’s doing perfectly competently.” When Burley put it to him that that was not much of an endorsement, Rees-Mogg went on: “I made no bones about the fact I thought Boris Johnson was a better prime minister and I wanted him to remain.”

Rees-Mogg criticised the government for stalling the Northern Ireland protocol bill. The bill, which is popular with hardline Brexiters but widely seen as contrary to international law, because it would allow the UK to unilaterally ignore some of the provisions in the protocol treaty, passed through the Commons when Boris Johnson was PM. But it is stuck in the Lords, where it has not been debated since October and where a date has not been set for its report stage. Sunak has shelved it because he wants to negotiate a compromise on the protocol with the EU, and passing the bill would make agreement much harder. But Rees-Mogg said the government should pass it. He said:

The government has just got to get on with it. There’s a bill that has been through the House of Commons that is waiting its report stage in the House of Lords and I don’t understand why the government hasn’t brought it forward.

He renewed his criticism of the strikes (minimum service levels) bill. When MPs debated it last night, Rees-Mogg said he agreed with Labour criticisms of the Henry VIII powers in the bill.

The government doesn’t know what changes it will have to make once this bill is passed. Under clause 3, the secretary of state would be able to make regulations that “amend, repeal or revoke provision made by or under primary legislation passed before this act or later in the same session of parliament as this act”. This is a supercharged Henry VIII clause. Why should MPs or peers pay any attention to any related legislation that may be brought before them later in this session when they know that, unless they object, a secretary of state may simply amend, repeal or revoke it?

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