PM says there will be no deal with EU unless there is ‘fundamental change’ in Brussels

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3.16pm BST

From my colleagues Pamela Duncan and Niamh McIntyre

From tonight over half the population of England will be living in areas classed as “high risk” or “very high risk” under the government’s three-tier system, equivalent to 28.4m people.

All of Lancashire county (Lancashire, Blackburn with Darwen and Blackpool council areas) are to move from tier 2 to the higher tier 3 category from midnight, meaning more than 3m people are now living in the highest-risk areas.

2.50pm BST

Trade negotiations often involve threats to walk away, and dire forecasts, before both side agree to compromise, and Brexit-watchers have been waiting for the UK-EU trade talks to this moment. It came this morning, when Boris Johnson used a TV statement (see 12.29pm) to say that there would no deal without a “fundamental change” in the EU’s approach.

But threats only work if people take them seriously and Johnson’s comments do not seem to have been taken as a sincere statement of intent to talk away. It was telling that, despite being asked twice if he was saying the talks were over, he would not use those words. (See 12.41pm.) If the foreign exchange markets thought Johnson was abandoning hopes of a deal, the pound would have fallen (as it has repeatedly in key moments in the Brexit drama since 2016). But it didn’t. “Market participants see comments from Boris Johnson as mainly political posturing at this stage,” an analyst told Bloomberg.

The pound fluctuates between gains and losses after Boris Johnson says the nation is preparing for a thin, Australia-style trade deal with the EU https://t.co/lzBTCqlY8F pic.twitter.com/YbntZLyFca

There’s no point in trade talks if the EU doesn’t change its position. The EU effectively ended the trade talks yesterday.

Only if the EU fundamentally changes its position will it be worth talking.

What I would say to that is there is only any point in Michel Barnier coming to London next week if he’s prepared to discuss all of the issues on the basis of legal text in an accelerated way without the UK being required to make all of the moves, or if he’s willing to discuss practicalities of areas such as travel and haulage which the PM mentioned in his statement.

Our position is a clear one. Only if the EU fundamentally changes position will it be worthwhile talking.