Category Archives: Global economy

Oil price could exceed $100 a barrel if Middle East conflict worsens, World Bank warns

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Increase in cost of crude could drive inflation up and force central banks to keep interest rates high

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A serious escalation of tensions in the Middle East would push the price of oil above $100 (£80) a barrel and reverse the recent downward trend in global inflation, the World Bank has said.

The Washington-based institution said the recent fall in commodity prices had been levelling off even before the recent missile strikes by Iran and Israel – making interest rate decisions for central banks tougher.

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Most difficult global outlook since 1930s heralds end of US-led world order | Larry Elliott

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IMF has revised up growth forecasts but medium-term prospects remain poor as globalisation goes into reverse

The 2020s are almost halfway over and are on course to be the most difficult decade for the global economy since the 1930s. Every finance minister and central bank governor at the spring meeting of the International Monetary Fund in Washington last week knows that, even if they were not prepared to admit it publicly.

The IMF likes to look on the bright side. It revised up slightly its forecast for global growth and now thinks scarring from the coronavirus pandemic and the cost of living crisis will be less severe than it originally feared. Interest rates have risen without triggering the recessions that were predicted. A soft landing has been finessed. The performance of some countries – the US and India to take two examples – has been strong.

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Brexit plans in ‘complete disarray’ as EU import checks delayed, say businesses

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Trade bodies say ongoing confusion about when checks will come in is ‘incredibly challenging’

Businesses have described Britain’s Brexit border plans as being in “complete disarray” after it emerged the introduction of some checks on EU imports will be delayed.

Post-Brexit border rules, due to come into force on 30 April, will require many meat, dairy and plant products from the EU to be physically checked at government border control posts (BCPs).

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Covid pandemic made poorest countries even worse off, World Bank warns

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Poverty reduction drive all but halted across many nations as Bank calls for more money to tackle a ‘great reversal’

The devastating impact of the pandemic on the world’s poorest countries has brought poverty reduction to a halt and led to a widening income gap with nations in the rich west, the World Bank has warned.

In a report released to coincide with its half-yearly meeting, the Washington-based organisation said half of the world’s 75 poorest nations had seen income per head rise more slowly than in developed countries over the past five years.

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Global economic risks ‘could eclipse anything since second world war’, says JP Morgan boss

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In annual letter to investors, Jamie Dimon warns ‘wars in Ukraine and Middle East could become far worse’

The boss of the US bank JP Morgan has warned that the world could be facing the most dangerous moment since the second world war, putting lives and economic growth at risk.

In his annual letter to investors, Jamie Dimon said the world had been “generally on a path to becoming stronger and safer” in recent years but had suffered a major reversal in February 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine.

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Food inflation in world’s rich nations falls to pre-Ukraine war levels

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Rate declines for 15th consecutive month across 38 OECD countries from 6.3% in January to 5.3% in February

Food prices across the world’s richest nations rose in February at the slowest rate since before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, according to figures that show easing inflationary pressures on households.

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) said food inflation declined for the 15th consecutive month across its 38 member countries from 6.3% in January to 5.3% in February.

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Dysfunction and division darken the WTO’s 30-year dream of free trade

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As the organisation’s anniversary nears, borders around the world are closing again

When trade ministers gathered in the Moroccan city of Marrakech 30 years ago this month to sign the agreement creating the World Trade Organization (WTO), the mood was celebratory. The Berlin Wall had come down only recently, communism had collapsed, and there was optimistic talk of how the body would prise open new markets and act as the arbiter when disputes broke out between countries.

The atmosphere today is much darker than it was in April 1994. Any enthusiasm for groundbreaking trade liberalisation deals disappeared decades ago and has been replaced by covert – and often overt – protectionism.

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World’s largest solar manufacturer to cut one-third of workforce

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China’s Longi looks to slash costs as renewable energy sector faces tough headwinds from inflation

The world’s largest solar manufacturer has slashed nearly a third of its workforce after a cost-cutting drive that included telling staff to only print in black and white fell short and as a chill ripples through the renewable energy sector.

China’s Longi is to cut as much as 30% of its workforce, in an acceleration of cost reductions that began late last year, Bloomberg reported.

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Kristalina Georgieva wins backing to run for second term as IMF chief

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Bulgaria’s ‘eternal optimist’ in favour with European finance ministers after first five-year stint encompassing Covid and Ukraine

The head of the International Monetary Fund, Kristalina Georgieva, will run for a second five-year term after being nominated by a string of European countries to lead the global lender.

The Bulgarian economist and champion of policies to tackle the climate crisis will be given the support of her home country, which said she had accepted the nomination for another term starting in September.

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Clare Lombardelli named deputy governor of Bank of England

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Ex-Treasury official and adviser to David Cameron will replace Ben Broadbent, making MPC majority female for first time

The Bank of England’s interest-rate-setting committee is set to become majority female for the first time, after the appointment of a former key adviser to David Cameron and George Osborne as one of its deputy governors.

Clare Lombardelli, the chief economist at the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), will sit on the nine-member monetary policy committee (MPC) when she joins as the Bank’s next deputy governor for monetary policy.

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More than half of UK retailers affected by Houthi disruption, survey shows

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Costs are escalating amid delays, according to British Chambers of Commerce research that shows UK exporters have also been hit

More than half of UK retailers and exporters have been affected by the disruption to Red Sea trade from Houthi rebel attacks on cargo ships, research by a leading business lobby group suggests.

The price of shipping a container from Asia to Europe has gone up by as much as 300% for some businesses, while logistical delays have added up to three to four weeks to delivery times, according to the survey by the British Chambers of Commerce (BCC).

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China needs to do more on ‘silent crisis’ of debt, says World Bank official

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Beijing must be more ready to support countries facing distress, says deputy chief economist

China holds the key to speeding up debt relief and ending the “silent crisis” that is holding back attempts to tackle poverty in the world’s poorest countries, a senior World Bank official has said.

Ayhan Kose, the Bank’s deputy chief economist, said Beijing needed to be more active in negotiations to provide financial support for those countries already in, or close to, debt distress.

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Dover Port health body fears gangs of meat smugglers looking to bypass new post-Brexit checks

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Authority weighs up legal action against government over new checks on imported meat taking place 22 miles inland

The Port of Dover could become a target for criminals smuggling illegal and diseased meat into the country under new post-Brexit plans that will involve lorries from the continent being checked 22 miles inland, the port’s health authority has warned.

The Dover Port Health Authority (DPHA) is now considering legal action against the government over its decision to end physical checks of imported meat at a post within the port. Instead, lorries will be directed to a new checking facility half an hour’s drive up the M20 at Sevington, Ashford.

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China has seen a fourth month of falling prices, but will it act to curb deflation?

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Plunge in consumer prices has fuelled calls for a stimulus package – yet Beijing may stick to the new normal of lower growth

• China consumer prices plunge at fastest rate for 15 years

China’s economy has gone from bad to worse – and it is only February.

Figures released on Thursday showed consumer prices fell by 0.8% in January compared with a year earlier, outstripping economists’ expectations and marking the biggest contraction in 15 years.

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China consumer prices plunge at fastest rate for 15 years as deflation fears deepen

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Plummeting food prices feed steep annual drop amid renewed calls to stimulate economy and offset weakening demand

China’s consumer prices fell at their fastest pace in 15 years in January, as the world’s second-largest economy sank deeper into deflation amid weakening demand.

Data released on Thursday showed that China’s consumer price index tumbled last month, falling by 0.8% compared with a year earlier. It marks the fourth consecutive month of declines, as well as the sharpest drop since September 2009, when the global economy was still grappling with aftershocks from the 2008 banking crisis.

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Lloyds and Santander accused of providing accounts for Iranian front companies

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Both banks deny helping Tehran-controlled oil firm PCC to move money in breach of sanctions

Two of the UK’s largest lenders, Santander UK and Lloyds Banking Group, allegedly held bank accounts for front companies that helped Iranian entities evade US sanctions, according to reports.

The news has rattled investors, who sold off shares in the two banks on Monday morning, amid fears that the lenders could face penalties if they are found to have in any way assisted Iran’s state-controlled Petrochemical Commercial Company (PCC).

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UK ditches post-Brexit Canada trade talks; Vodafone and Three UK merger under investigation – as it happened

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Live, rolling coverage of business, economics and financial markets as Canada says UK was unwilling to give access to agricultural products

Shares in US chipmaker Intel have slumped in pre-market trading after it revealed a weaker forecast of earnings.

Chipmakers have been flying in recent years as shortages followed by the huge hype over artificial intelligence – which is hungry for processing power – prompted investors to pile into the sector.

Although Intel beat estimates, investors’ disappointment in Intel’s datacentre GPU story’s growth can be primarily attributed to the slower-than-expected product delivery and ramp-up.

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New Brexit checks ‘pose existential threat’ to UK fruit and flower growers

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Exclusive: NFU warns blanket import checks from April could fuel long delays and damage future crops

The UK’s fruit and flower growers face an “existential threat” from new post-Brexit border checks that could damage business and affect next year’s crops, the country’s biggest farming body has said.

The National Farmers’ Union (NFU) warned that changes to import rules in April, which will impose checks at the border for nearly all young plants coming into the country, could cause long delays and result in plants being damaged or destroyed.

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Geopolitical tensions and AI dominate start of World Economic Forum

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Ukraine, Middle East and Taiwan overshadow annual meeting at Davos, with artificial intelligence also high on agenda

Growing concern that heightened geopolitical tension could damage an already shaky global economy has dominated the start of the annual gathering of the world’s business and political elite in Davos, Switzerland.

Three potential flash points – Ukraine, the Middle East and Taiwan – threatened to overshadow the meeting of the World Economic Forum (WEF) aimed at rebuilding trust after the series of setbacks suffered in the past four years, including war, the Covid-19 pandemic and the cost of living crisis.

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Oil prices hit $80 a barrel as fears grow over Red Sea disruption to trade

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Experts warn of economic impact of sustained shipping attacks and Middle East tensions

Oil prices have hit $80 (£62.83) as fears grew about the economic impact of disruption to international trade through the Red Sea and escalating tensions in the Middle East.

Raising concerns about a possible inflation shock for the world economy, Brent crude prices jumped by about 4% to a high of $80.75 a barrel on Friday, while US West Texas Intermediate crude also increased after US and UK airstrikes against Houthi rebel sites in Yemen.

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