Labour claims Reform UK won’t protect women, as poll suggests Farage’s party heading for ‘seismic’ wins in May – UK politics live

Poll projects major political earthquake across Britain with Labour losing Wales and England’s Red Wall

In the light of what George Robertson, who led the strategic defence review for Labour, said about defence spending in his speech last night, there’s a good chance Kemi Badenoch will choose to raise this at PMQs later.

She may well raise the Times’s splash, which says Rachel Reeves, the chancellor, is proposing to raise defence spending by less than £10bn over the next four years.

The State of It political podcast from The Times and The Sunday Times has been told that Reeves is unwilling to break her fiscal rules or increase taxes to boost defence spending.

John Healey, the defence secretary, is pressing for a bigger increase as there are concerns that £10bn will not be enough, given the increasing likelihood that British forces will be deployed to Ukraine and the Middle East.

Lord Robertson produced his first SDR as Tony Blair’s defence secretary in 1998, and the historian David Edgerton noted then that Britain was committing itself “to acting primarily with the USA in a wide-ranging programme of global policing”. The structure of the armed forces is designed not for autonomous defence but because “the composition … is what allows Britain to be the USA’s principal partner”. Only 15% to 20% of spending, Prof Edgerton reckoned, related to purely national defence. In that sense, the model Lord Robertson now defends was never primarily about defending the UK at all. It was about plugging into a US system and piggybacking on its arms industry base.

The Treasury is right to question prioritising defence now. Cutting welfare would hit demand and weaken growth. As Khem Rogaly of the Common Wealth thinktank argues, defence spending provides a weak economic stimulus compared with public investment – and is even worse as a job creator. Moreover, the UK is not using higher defence spending to build its own independent military, but to reshape its armed forces around a US-style venture capital and tech ecosystem. With Mr Trump in office, there is no better time to ask: whose security are we funding – Britain’s or America’s?

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Keir Starmer faces Kemi Badenoch at prime minister’s questions – UK politics live

PM to face opposition leader and MPs in the House of Commons

Polanski says the government should be doing more to improve home insulation, and on the drive towards renewable energy.

And he says the government should commit to ensuring energy bills do not rise above the April-June price cap.

The government should guarantee right now that it will not allow energy bills to rise beyond the April-June price cap – instead setting aside approximately £8.4bn to prevent a rise of up to £300 per household that could be coming down the track.

No, it’s not cheap. But the alternative is unacceptable: if the price cap rises, we will see interest rate rises. Mortgage rates up. Bond yields up. And inflation up – and we will be back into the doom loop that has done untold damage to our economy and caused misery for households across the UK for years now.

There are ways to pay. Instead of scrapping the windfall tax on energy companies, as this government is planning to do, we should be strengthening it instead. We need a real, loophole-free windfall tax with no exemptions for reinvesting in fossil fuels. A robust tax that claws back every single pound of reckless profiteering from this crisis and repurposes it immediately to protect every home in the country. And while taxing extreme wealth in the ways we need to will take time to implement, there are levers the government could pull right now – like equalising capital gains tax with income tax and reforming the base, to raise £12bn.

It’s time for the government to act decisively, eliminate the uncertainty that is plaguing people and the markets and insulate us from some of the worst economic effects of Trump’s war.

This was not a war of self-defence, there was no imminent threat. Negotiations were ongoing. It was, as the BBC’s international editor said, a war of choice.

People across the Middle East are terrified of what Trump and Netanyanhu’s war will mean for them and their loved ones. And the repercussions are echoing across the world as instability spreads and oil prices spike.

People are already struggling so hard just to make ends meet. People feel like they’re running every day just to stay in the same place. The idea that yet again – for the second time in just a few years – that we are going to have to deal with another enormous spike in the cost of the basics is unacceptable.

It’s unacceptable because we didn’t need to be here. It’s unforgivable that just four years after we last saw an energy price shock, that one triggered by Putin’s illegal invasion of Ukraine, far too little has been done to protect this country, its people, and its economy – from the impact of yet another energy price shock.

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More than 100 Labour MPs call on PM to stop assisted dying bill being blocked

Letter sent to Starmer claims ‘small number of peers have been using procedural tactics’ to stymie its progress

More than 100 Labour MPs have called on Keir Starmer to stop the House of Lords from blocking the assisted dying bill and give it more time to return to the Commons, with the legislation now certain to fall owing to lack of time.

The private member’s bill, sponsored by Labour’s Kim Leadbeater, will fall when the parliamentary session comes to an end in May because peers have used multiple amendments and lengthy debates to prevent it from being put to a vote.

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Confusion over Chagos Islands deal as Foreign Office denies handover ‘paused’

Minister ‘misspoke’ by telling MPs UK was ‘pausing for discussions with our American counterparts’, officials say

Plans to hand over the Chagos Islands to Mauritius are still on track, the UK government has insisted, after a minister caused confusion by telling MPs that the deal was “paused”.

Hamish Falconer, a Foreign Office minister and former diplomat, was speaking on Wednesday as the deal came under increasing pressure from opposition parties in the UK and from Donald Trump.

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GB News urged to cut ties with contributor accused of racism

Rightwing activist claimed Commons deputy speaker Nusrat Ghani should be barred because she was born in Pakistan

GB News is facing calls to cut ties with a regular contributor who has been accused of racism after claiming that the House of Commons deputy speaker, Nusrat Ghani, should not be allowed in the house because she was born in Pakistan.

The comments by Lucy White, a rightwing activist, have drawn criticism from across the political spectrum amid warnings that explicitly racist language is becoming increasingly normalised in British life.

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How Rachel Reeves’s budget was leaked 40 minutes early

By the time the chancellor reached the dispatch box, the OBR had accidentally published its verdict in full online

Shortly before midday on Wednesday, a series of headlines about Rachel Reeves’s budget began appearing on the Reuters newswire, sending instant ripples though financial markets.

The details were jaw-dropping: they appeared to spell out the key policies of the chancellor’s budget more than 40 minutes before she was due to deliver them to a crowded Commons chamber.

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How Rachel Reeves’s budget was leaked 40 minutes early

By the time the chancellor reached the dispatch box, the OBR had accidentally published its verdict in full online

Shortly before midday on Wednesday, a series of headlines about Rachel Reeves’s budget began appearing on the Reuters newswire, sending instant ripples though financial markets.

The details were jaw-dropping: they appeared to spell out the key policies of the chancellor’s budget more than 40 minutes before she was due to deliver them to a crowded Commons chamber.

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Allegations about Farage’s conduct as schoolboy ‘disturbing’, says No 10 – UK politics live

The Guardian spoke to more than a dozen contemporaries of Farage at Dulwich college, a public school in south London

Healey is now taking questions.

Q: How close are are we to war?

It is Labour that is the party of defence.

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Watch out for online contact with Chinese spies, UK defence minister warns public

After MI5 issues China espionage alert to parliament, Luke Pollard says message should be heeded by all citizens

Ordinary UK citizens need to watch out for online contact with Chinese spies, the defence minister has said, after MI5 issued an espionage alert to parliament.

Luke Pollard said a warning given to parliamentarians on Tuesday that China was attempting to recruit individuals with access to sensitive information should also be heeded by the public at large.

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Shabana Mahmood tells MPs asylum system is ‘out of control and unfair’ amid Labour backlash over proposals – UK politics live

Labour MP calls government’s asylum plans ‘dystopian’ as home secretary announces measures in Commons

Momentum, the leftwing Labour group, has also denounced the government’s asylum plans. In a statement it says:

The home secretary’s new immigration plans are divisive and xenophobic.

Scapegoating migrants will not fix our public services or end austerity.

Draconian, unworkable and potentially illegal anti-asylum policies only feed Reform’s support.

The government has learnt nothing from the period since the general election.

Some of the legal changes being proposed are truly frightening:

Abolishing the right to a family life would ultimately affect many more people than asylum-seekers.

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Starmer says any attack on his cabinet is ‘completely unacceptable’ and adds Streeting is doing a great job – UK politics live

Kemi Badenoch probes Starmer over ‘toxic culture’ at Downing Street as PM denies authorising briefings against potential challengers

The No 10 briefing row is not the only story around this morning. Amy Sedghi is writing a live blog about the ongoing turmoil at the BBC and she has details of Donald Trump saying he has an “obligation” to sue the BBC.

In a related development, Reform UK has pulled out of a BBC documentary about the party amid a row over the broadcaster’s editing of the Trump speech. Robyn Vintner has the story.

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Keir Starmer says any No 10 briefings against ministers ‘unacceptable’

Starmer defends Wes Streeting at PMQs but dodges question on his chief of staff, Morgan McSweeney

Keir Starmer has condemned as “completely unacceptable” any briefings against cabinet ministers from inside Downing Street as he tried desperately to close a rift at the top of government.

Questioned by Kemi Badenoch at prime minister’s questions, Starmer defended Wes Streeting, the health secretary, who was the apparent target of a pre-emptive No 10 push against a feared imminent leadership challenge against the prime minister.

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MPs vote down Farage’s proposal for UK to leave ECHR – as it happened

This blog is now closed, you can read more of our UK political coverage here

Mark Sedwill, the former cabinet secretary and former national security adviser, goes next. He is now a peer, and a member of the committee.

He says the deputy national security adviser, Matthew Collins, thought there was enough evidence for the case to go ahead. But the CPS did not agree. Who was right?

In 2017, the Law Commission flagged that the term enemy [in the legislation] was deeply problematic and it would give rise to difficulties in future prosecutions.

And I think what has played out, during this prosecution exemplifies and highlights the difficulties with that.

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Three more Reform UK councillors expelled from party over ‘dishonest’ behaviour after leaked video meeting – UK politics live

Footage of online meeting showed Kent county council leader remonstrating with councillors

Earlier I pointed out that, in his Today interview this morning, the Reform MP Danny Kruger was strangely reticent when it came to explaining why the size of the civil service has grown so much in recent years. (See 11.09am.)

In his speech this morning Kruger was a bit more forthcoming. He said:

Let me be very clear. The growth of the civil service will be reversed. After falling in the wake of the global financial crisis, the headcount of the civil service rose again after Brexit – shame on the Tories – and it passed 500,000 in 2023.

Nothing works properly. It’s impossible to build anything. The streets are dirty and unsafe. Taxes and prices are far too high. Immigration is changing our country for the worse and far too fast. And we’re becoming poor, sick and unhappy. There is a malaise over Britain.

These problems are complex. But the effective cause of them is simple. Since 1997 we have had governments that, firstly don’t share the attitude of the country they govern, and secondly, they aren’t properly in charge of the state.

This announcement only reinforces climate policy as a dividing line in our politics, rather than being the unifying issue it once was.

And, for the Conservative party, it risks chasing votes from Reform at the expense of the wider electorate.

By undermining the judiciary we further erode public trust in the institutions of our democracy and therefore in democracy itself.

So I say to those seeking to villainise a judiciary that cannot easily answer back, who wilfully discredit our legal system for their own expediency – it’s time to show responsible leadership.

This is not just about short-term decisions to make it easier to deal with public concerns about immigration.

Our support for human rights has its origin in Magna Carta. How we deal with issues of human rights is fundamental to our ability to deal with autocracies and dictatorships.

In the world of power where the club of strong men want to carve the world up in their own interests, populism and polarisation are enablers.

And those politicians in the Western world who use populism and polarisation for their own short-term political ends risk handing a victory to our enemies.

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Grooming gangs inquiry will never be watered down, home secretary says, after survivors resign from panel – UK politics live

Keir Starmer likely to face PMQs grilling on claims the inquiry has descended into ‘chaos’

UK inflation was unchanged last month at 3.8%, confounding expectations of a rise, in welcome news for the chancellor, Rachel Reeves, as she plans for her crucial budget next month, Heather Stewart reports.

Another topic that is likely to come up at PMQs today is a Times report saying that Chris Wormald, the cabinet secretary, who was only appointed in December last year, is expected to be replaced within months.

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MPs lodge parliamentary motion to strip Prince Andrew of dukedom

Ministers face growing pressure to act amid fresh allegations over prince’s relationship with Jeffrey Epstein

MPs have moved to lodge a parliamentary motion to strip Prince Andrew of his dukedom, in a rarely permitted move in the Commons.

The government is facing mounting pressure over the prince’s residence in the 30-room Royal Lodge in Windsor, where it was revealed that he has not paid rent for more than two decades.

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Starmer only read China spy witness statements this morning, No 10 says, as Cleverly accuses PM of misquoting him – as it happened

This blog is now closed, you can read more on this story here

Lindsay Hoyle starts by telling MPs that speakers from the parliaments in Fiji and Ukraine are in the gallery. And he says it is four years to the day since David Amess was murdered.

It’s PMQs. Here is the list of MPs down to ask a question.

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Starmer says he expects debate about ‘full horror’ of what happened in Gaza when media allowed in – UK politics live

PM hails Trump’s part in Middle East peace deal but says what matters now is implementation

Europe’s most senior human rights official has called on Shabana Mahmood to review UK protest laws after mass arrests over the ban on Palestine Action, Rajeev Syal reports.

The Commons authorities have confirmed that there will be two statements in the chamber after 12.30pm: first, Keir Starmer on the Middle East peace summit, and then Hilary Benn, the Northern Ireland secretary, on the Northern Ireland Troubles bill being published today.

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Rachel Reeves due to appear at gambling lobbyist’s event amid tax review

Chancellor’s invitation criticised as ‘strange timing’ with Treasury looking at whether to raise duties on £12bn sector

The chancellor, Rachel Reeves, has been urged to cancel plans to be the guest of honour at an event hosted by the chief lobbyist of the gambling industry while the Treasury is in the midst of a review of taxes on the £12bn sector.

Reeves is slated to appear at a “private reception” for business leaders, organised by the corporate communications company Brunswick, at the forthcoming Labour party conference in Liverpool.

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Starmer and Cooper lead from the back as junior ministers take the Mandy flak | John Crace

PM and foreign secretary were nowhere in sight as hapless Stephen Doughty faced the Commons over Peter Mandelson

If only there had been some kind of clue. The tiniest of hints that Peter Mandelson might not have been a suitable candidate to act as the UK ambassador in Washington.

Like being forced to resign from the cabinet over a failure to disclose a loan from Geoffrey Robinson. Like being forced to resign from the cabinet a second time over allegations of trying to procure a passport for the Hinduja brothers. Like his financial arrangements with the Russian oligarch Oleg Deripaska. Like his friendship with the convicted child sex offender Jeffrey Epstein.

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