‘The stakes are enormous’: how a prolonged Iran war could shock the global economy

Donald Trump’s ‘little excursion’ is likely to have long-term effects, from oil prices to inflation to growth, say experts

In the days after the US and Israel first bombed Iran, financial markets bet the economic fallout from Donald Trump’s “little excursion” in the Middle East would be short-lived.

“There are risks from higher oil prices longer term. But this is a tail risk,” one US-based fund manger said after the airstrike killing Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. “History has shown time and time again that geopolitical flare-ups like this tend to be short-lived. This one should prove to be no exception.’’

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Petrol theft expected to rise in Australia as police call for more CCTV and prepaid pumps

Amid a surge in fuel prices and fear of shortages, SA police chief signals officers might stop investigating ‘drive-offs’ unless service stations install prepaid pumps

The rusty green fuel trailer hardly looks like it is worth stealing. But some time before 1 March it was hooked up to the back of a vehicle and taken from a property at Huntley, south of Orange, in the New South Wales central tablelands.

It was just another in a series of thefts that police across Australia are keeping a watchful eye on.

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5m tonnes of CO2 emitted in just 14 days of US war on Iran, analysis finds

Exclusive: War in the Middle East is draining the global carbon budget faster than 84 countries combined

The US-Israel war on Iran is a disaster for the climate, according to an analysis that finds it is draining the global carbon budget faster than 84 countries combined.

As warplanes, drones and missiles kill thousands of people, level infrastructure and turn the Middle East into a gigantic environmental sacrifice zone, the first analysis of the climate cost has found the conflict led to 5m tonnes of greenhouse gas emissions in its first 14 days.

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Donald Trump ‘very surprised’ Australia declined to send troops to strait of Hormuz amid fuel crisis

US president claims he ‘always says yes’ to Australia, Japan and South Korea, after saying he didn’t need help from trio of countries earlier this week

Donald Trump says he is “very surprised” Australia has not sent warships to aid in opening the strait of Hormuz as the blockade of the key strategic route for global oil supply continues to affect fuel prices.

“I was very surprised,” the US president said in Washington on Friday when asked what he took issue with regarding Japan, South Korea and Australia.

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US lifts sanctions on Iranian oil at sea in bid to ease supply pressures

Treasury secretary Scott Bessent says move will bring 140m barrels to market but insists Tehran will not benefit

The Trump administration has issued a 30-day sanctions waiver for the purchase of Iranian oil at sea to ease energy supply pressures since the start of the US-Israeli war on Iran, US treasury secretary Scott Bessent said.

It is the third time the US has temporarily waived sanctions in about two weeks.

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Damaged Russian tanker carrying natural gas floats into Libyan waters

Fears of ecological disaster as vessel continues to drift after being struck by suspected drone attack

A severely damaged Russian tanker carrying liquified natural gas that has been adrift in the Mediterranean for two weeks, raising concerns of an ecological disaster, has floated into Libyan waters, Italy’s civil protection agency said on Wednesday.

The Arctic Metagaz was part of a Russian “shadow fleet” used to circumvent sanctions imposed on the country’s oil and gas after its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. It was struck in a suspected drone attack close to Maltese waters earlier this month, causing a huge hole. The crew is believed to have been rescued between Malta and Libya.

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Sri Lanka brings in four-day week to eke out stocks of oil and gas hit by Iran war

Effective closure of strait of Hormuz also affecting Bangladesh, India and Pakistan, which have brought in crisis measures

Sri Lanka is introducing a shorter four-day working week to preserve its shrinking fuel and gas reserves, as the Middle East conflict continues to severely disrupt energy supplies in the region.

Countries across south Asia are facing crippling shortages of fuel and LPG gas, which are used for everything from home cooking to cremating bodies, as most supplies have been held up in the Gulf since the US and Israel began bombing Iran.

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Iran threatens to escalate war after Trump says ‘many countries’ will send warships to strait of Hormuz

US president calls on China, France, Japan and the UK to send vessels after US strikes Kharg Island oil facilities

Iran threatened on Saturday to further escalate the war raging in the Middle East by targeting any facility in the region with US ties, after Donald Trump predicted “many countries” would send warships to support a US bid to reopen by force the strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway closed to virtually all maritime traffic by Tehran since the beginning of the war.

Iran has responded to the joint US-Israeli offensive, which is entering its third week, with daily attacks on oil and other infrastructure around the Gulf region, as well as against Israel.

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‘I don’t give a shit about Iran. I don’t want to pay higher gas’: Motor City motorists feel pinch as gas prices surge

Drivers in Detroit are unhappy with the spike in gas prices, even if reactions are mixed to the US-Israel war on Iran

On a rainy Detroit afternoon at a gas station off Interstate 75, Victor Rodriguez watched the pump tally tick up as he filled up his F-250 diesel pickup truck for $4.19 per gallon. It totaled $110. “Ridiculous,” he said.

The US-Israel war on Iran has crippled major portions of the oil supply chain, sending gas prices soaring as the conflict enters its third week. Rodriguez said he supports “getting rid of this thug”, referring to Iran’s Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed by the US, but the cost is too high.

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European drivers face €220 a year jump in fuel costs due to Iran conflict, say experts

Exclusive: Oil at $100 a barrel means higher prices in the EU and UK, making savings for those with electric vehicles even greater, analysts say

European drivers face paying an extra €220 (£190) a year at the pumps because of the surge in oil prices caused by the war in Iran, analysts have warned. In the UK, a separate estimate puts the cost at an extra £140.

A sustained oil price of $100 a barrel, the level seen on Monday, would mean motorists in the EU paying €55bn more over a year, researchers at the Transport & Environment (T&E) thinktank estimated. That is the equivalent of an average of €220 for each driver, with higher-mileage drivers facing even bigger hikes. The assessment was made by comparing data from 2022, when Russia’s invasion of Ukraine pushed the oil price to the $100 mark, with data from 2017-2019.

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European drivers face €220 a year jump in fuel costs due to Iran conflict, say experts

Exclusive: Oil at $100 a barrel means higher prices in the EU and UK, making savings for those with electric vehicles even greater, analysts say

European drivers face paying an extra €220 (£190) a year at the pumps because of the surge in oil prices caused by the war in Iran, analysts have warned. In the UK, a separate estimate puts the cost at an extra £140.

A sustained oil price of $100 a barrel, the level seen on Monday, would mean motorists in the EU paying €55bn more over a year, researchers at the Transport & Environment (T&E) thinktank estimated. That is the equivalent of an average of €220 for each driver, with higher-mileage drivers facing even bigger hikes. The assessment was made by comparing data from 2022, when Russia’s invasion of Ukraine pushed the oil price to the $100 mark, with data from 2017-2019.

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Oil price tops $100 again as Iran strikes economic targets across Middle East

Vast release of emergency crude reserves fails to quell mounting fears around energy supply crunch, rattling global markets

Oil prices again topped $100 a barrel on Thursday as widespread Iranian attacks on Middle Eastern energy facilities overshadowed a vast release of government reserves.

As Donald Trump vowed to “finish the job” and press ahead with the US-Israel war on Iran, the country’s regime stepped up retaliatory strikes on economic targets across the region.

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Oil price tops $100 again as Iran strikes economic targets across Middle East

Vast release of emergency crude reserves fails to quell mounting fears around energy supply crunch, rattling global markets

Oil prices again topped $100 a barrel on Thursday as widespread Iranian attacks on Middle Eastern energy facilities overshadowed a vast release of government reserves.

As Donald Trump vowed to “finish the job” and press ahead with the US-Israel war on Iran, the country’s regime stepped up retaliatory strikes on economic targets across the region.

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Countries must seek energy independence through renewables and nuclear, says John Kerry

Former US secretary of state says oil shock driven by war in Iran highlights dangers of reliance on fossil fuels

Countries must seek energy independence through renewable resources and nuclear energy for their national security, and to avoid the “choke points” of fossil fuel supply, the former US secretary of state John Kerry has warned.

The war in Iran has sent oil prices soaring, as refineries and fields have closed down in several Middle Eastern countries and many tankers are stranded in the strait of Hormuz, with economic impacts beginning to be felt around the world.

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Can the IEA put a lid on the price per barrel by releasing oil stockpiles?

Despite rare act of multilateralism, there is no guarantee the IEA’s release of 400m barrels from reserves will depress prices

When the global economy was still in the grip of the devastating 1970s oil crises, exposing the chokehold exerted by a few important oil states, the International Energy Agency (IEA) was created, in the hope of limiting future shocks.

Almost half a century on, the IEA’s 32 members have drawn up plans to hit the emergency button, for only the fifth time in its history.

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Aramco warns of oil market ‘catastrophe’ unless strait of Hormuz reopens soon

Saudi Arabian state oil firm calls crisis by far the biggest the region has seen but firm can reroute 70% of exports and tap crude held in storage

Saudi Arabia’s state oil company has warned of “catastrophic consequences” for the world’s oil markets if the US-Israeli war with Iran continues to block shipping in the strait of Hormuz.

The world’s biggest oil exporter expects to be able to supply the market with about 70% of its usual crude output despite the stranglehold on the vital trade artery, but its chief executive warned that there would still be “drastic” consequences for the world economy if the disruption continues.

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Iran war drives oil prices above $100 a barrel for first time since 2022

Donald Trump insists surge in energy prices is ‘very small price to pay’ as Middle East conflict sparks fresh stock market sell-off

Oil prices surged past $100 per barrel for the first time since 2022 as fallout from the US-Israel war with Iran continued to rattle global markets and leading economies moved to tackle a worsening energy supply crisis.

A weekend of escalating violence in the Middle East intensified concerns around a sustained supply crunch, propelling oil prices to their highest level in four years and triggering a deep stock market sell-off.

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US energy chief says spike in gas prices will fall ‘before too long’ amid Iran war

Chris Wright says price increase would last weeks, not months, and that US would not target Iran’s energy industry

Chris Wright, the US Department of Energy secretary, said on Sunday that the spike in energy prices would last weeks, at the worst, not months, and that the US would not target Iran’s energy industry.

His comments come amid rising anxiety that Iran’s response to the US-Israel strikes, which caused a reduction in shipping through the strait of Hormuz and production slowdowns in some oil and gas producing states in the Middle East, may cause broad economic turbulence and higher inflation.

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White House worries as gas prices jump amid ongoing US-Israel war on Iran

US drivers are largely insulated from higher oil prices caused by Middle East turmoil – but only to a point

Across the US, the average cost of a gallon of regular gasoline has jumped nearly 27 cents in a week, to $3.25, and American consumers are bracing for higher prices at the gas pump as the US-Israel conflict with Iran threatens to disrupt the global oil supply.

That fear has entered the White House too, where Donald Trump’s chief of staff, Susie Wiles, is reportedly hunting for ideas to lower gasoline prices and officials are getting “screamed at” to bring good news, according to Politico.

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US grants waiver to allow India to buy Russian oil amid Iran war

‘Stopgap measure’ designed to keep oil flowing into global market as Middle East crisis disrupts crude shipments

The US has temporarily allowed India to buy Russian oil currently stuck at sea in an effort to keep global supplies flowing and temper further price increases.

On Thursday the US treasury issued a 30-day waiver allowing India to buy Russian oil, having previously imposed heavy sanctions related to the war in Ukraine.

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