European gas firms seek ways to pay after Putin’s roubles demand

Energy suppliers in Germany and Austria confirm they are looking at sanctions-compliant methods

Energy companies in Europe are considering opening Russian accounts to pay for gas from Gazprom after Vladimir Putin’s regime cut off supplies to Poland and Bulgaria and insisted other countries must pay in roubles.

Big gas distributors in Germany and Austria confirmed they were seeking ways to continue to make payments after Putin signed a decree at the end of March calling for a “special procedure for foreign buyers’ fulfilment of obligations to Russian suppliers of natural gas”.

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Unprecedented inflation ahead as Ukraine war adds to costs, says Unilever

Rise in energy and ingredient costs suggests consumers will have to pay more for well-known brands

The consumer goods firm Unilever has said “unprecedented cost inflation” lies ahead as Russia’s war on Ukraine has added to a surge in energy and ingredient costs, and said that shoppers will pay even more for well-known brands in the coming months.

The company, which makes goods ranging from Dove soap to Magnum ice-cream and Marmite, said on Thursday it expected its costs to rise by €2.7bn (£2.3bn) in the second half of 2022, after an already steep increase on the €2.1bn expected for the first half.

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Russia accused of blackmail after gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria halted

EU hits out at move that Kremlin says is response to countries’ failure to pay in roubles

Europe appears to be on the brink of an energy crisis that could further drive up household bills after Russia halted gas supplies to two EU countries and threatened others, in a move condemned by European leaders as blackmail.

The immediate consequence of Gazprom’s decision to stop supply to Poland and Bulgaria while warning other nations opposed to Russia’s war in Ukraine that they could soon be hit was a 20% rise in the wholesale gas price.

In an address in St Petersburg, Vladimir Putin said any countries attempting to interfere in Ukraine or creating “unacceptable strategic threats for us” would be met with a “lightning-fast” response from Moscow. He claimed he had “all the tools for this – ones that no one can brag about … We will use them if needed. And I want everyone to know this. We have already taken all the decisions on this.”

The UN secretary general, António Guterres, arrived in Ukraine committing to evacuate civilians and seek a diplomatic way to end the war, after his controversial meeting with Putin and the Russian foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, in Moscow on Tuesday.

Serhiy Volyna, the acting commander of the 36th marine brigade in the besieged port city of Mariupol, said hundreds of civilians including children were living in unsanitary conditions and running out of food and water.

The interior ministry of Moldova’s breakaway region of Transnistria issued a statement claiming it had come under attack from Ukraine, raising fears that the country would now be dragged into active conflict.

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How worried should Europe be as Russia starts cutting off gas supplies?

Analysis: Putin is determined to use resource as a weapon, as shown in move to cut off Poland and Bulgaria

The unavoidable truth looming over Europe’s response to the invasion of Ukraine is that Russian gas heats the continent’s homes and powers its industries.

While European leaders have vowed to wean themselves off Kremlin-controlled supplies, both of gas and oil, the reality is that this is very hard to do in short order. There will be at least one more cold winter to come before major energy-hungry economies that rely heavily on Russia, such as Germany and Italy, can tap other sources.

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Tesla shares fall 12% after Musk’s Twitter deal; Moscow threatens to halt gas flows to Poland, Bulgaria – live

Investors worry Elon Musk may have to sell Tesla shares to fund Twitter deal, as global stocks slide and US dollar rises to pandemic high

Lloyds Banking Group has raised concerns over the “uncertain” outlook for the UK economy amid soaring inflation, warning that the cost of living crisis could result in higher defaults on its loans, reports our banking correspondent Kalyeena Makortoff.

It came as the bank reported a 14% drop in first quarter pre-tax profit to £1.6bn from £1.9bn a year earlier, although that was better than the £1.4bn that analysts had expected.

The Nasdaq led the equity market wipe-out overnight, with its near 4% retreat led by Tesla, which fell by 12.2%. You could look at it two ways.

Either Elon Musk sold his latest stock awards to generate the $21bn in cash for his part of the Twitter buyout, or the street is starting to wonder how he could possibly effectively run Tesla, Starlink, Space-X and Twitter simultaneously. I do as well.

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Why are UK supermarkets rationing cooking oil?

Tesco, Morrisons and Waitrose have limited sales after concerns over shortages caused by Ukraine war

The latest supermarket data from Kantar shows shoppers have been stockpiling cooking oil due to concerns about the shortage of sunflower oil caused by the Russia-Ukraine war.

Here we look at what’s behind the shortages, what the situation means for consumers and how long it might last.

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Retail sales fall as consumers cut back on fuel and food spending amid UK cost of living crisis – business live

Rolling coverage of business, the world economy and the financial markets

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the world economy and the financial markets.

In the UK, retail sales fell 1.4% in March, following a 0.5% drop in February, as people cut back on fuel and food spending amid soaring prices.

Good weather usually means sunnier times for retail, and firms will hope that the summer months can play a small part in stimulating waning confidence among a general public coping with the harsh realities of rising prices everywhere they turn. In reality, each day brings fresh warnings from business leaders that prices will likely continue to climb, driving consumer confidence in the wrong direction for retailers.

This seems a rather strange reaction given that nothing he said yesterday was in any way surprising. A 50 basis point rate hike is already priced in, as well as the prospect that we could well see another one soon afterwards.

We also heard from European Central Bank president Christine Lagarde yesterday as she capped off a couple of days of some rather hawkish comments from the likes of Belgium’s Pierre Wunsch, and ECB vice president Luis De Guindos who followed on from Latvia’s Martin Kazaks by arguing that a July rate rise was on the table. She didn’t come across as anywhere near as hawkish as her colleagues, pointing to the June meeting as the moment to decide on next steps, and lightly pushing back on the idea of a fixed point.

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World Bank chief says food crisis will lead to global human catastrophe – business live

Boris Johnson is in India at the start of a two-day visit, where he said he hopes to clinch a free trade deal for Britain by the end of the year.

Inflation in the eurozone has been revised slightly lower but remains at a record high as energy costs surge.

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Putin ally Alekperov resigns as president of Russia’s Lukoil

Billionaire oligarch steps down from Russia’s second-largest oil firm after being hit with EU and UK sanctions

The multibillionaire Russian oligarch Vagit Alekperov has stepped down as the president of the London-listed firm Lukoil after sanctions were imposed on him by the UK and EU.

In a statement to the stock market, Russia’s second-largest oil company said Alekperov, who is on good terms with Vladimir Putin, had formally notified the company of his decision to resign on Thursday.

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Russia ‘preparing legal action’ to unfreeze $600bn foreign currency reserves

Elvira Nabiullina says lawsuits aim to release gold and foreign currency frozen amid Ukraine invasion sanctions

Russia is preparing to take legal action to challenge the freeze on its $600bn (£462bn) foreign currency war chest put in place by western governments after the invasion of Ukraine, the head of the country’s central bank has said.

Elvira Nabiullina said plans were being made to launch lawsuits after governments including the US, UK and EU froze the Russian central bank’s foreign currency reserves held within their jurisdictions.

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Petropavlovsk investors could be wiped out by sale, warns mining firm

London-listed company facing financial pressures after UK placed sanctions on key Russian client

The London-listed mining company Petropavlovsk has warned investors they may be wiped out though a potential sale, as it struggles to regain its footing after UK sanctions against a key Russian client.

The miner said it was facing financial pressures due to UK government restrictions on Gazprombank, which is one of Petropavlovsk’s main customers and buys all of its gold. Gazprombank, which processes most payments for the Russian oil and gas sector, has been subject to UK sanctions since 24 March.

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Putin’s daughters targeted in US sanctions against Russia

Joe Biden links new measures directly to accounts of atrocities committed by Russian forces in Bucha

The US has announced a new round of sanctions targeting Russia’s top public and private banks and two daughters of Vladimir Putin, following mounting global accusations of Russian war crimes in Ukraine.

The sanctions targeted Maria Vorontsova and Katerina Tikhonova, two adult daughters of Putin’s with his former wife Lyudmila Shkrebneva.

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UK economy grows faster than expected; prices drop as US mulls big oil reserve release – business live

In Italy, inflation rose to an annual rate of 6.7% in March, according to a preliminary estimate from Istat, Italy’s statistics office.

Here’s a ranking of European inflation rates, based on the EU’s harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP) measure:

Inflation rose more than expected in France in March, reaching 4.5%. This is a figure that has not been seen since the 1980s, but it is still much lower than in neighbouring countries. Inflation will continue to rise in the coming months, before falling sharply.

For the next few months, we expect inflation to continue to rise, driven by energy and food prices, but also by inflationary pressures that are increasingly spreading to all sectors of the economy. The 5% mark for the national inflation indicator could be exceeded in the second quarter, even without further increases in energy prices. Indeed, all business indicators suggest that companies expect to set higher prices in the coming months.

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NatWest bank returns to majority private control, oil prices fall on Shanghai lockdown – business live

Major investors have launched a campaign calling for Sainsbury’s to help tackle the cost of living crisis by becoming the first supermarket group to pay all its workers the “real living wage” of £9.90 an hour, reports my colleague Rupert Jones.

Legal & General Investment Management, Nest (National Employment Savings Trust), which is Britain’s largest workplace pension scheme, and several MPs have formed a coalition to push for the change after reports that increasing numbers of supermarket workers are having to turn to food banks to feed themselves and their families.

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Inflation raises cost of UK government borrowing in February; crude oil up again – business live

Analysts say chancellor has wriggle room for limited package of measures in Wednesday’s mini-budget, as US Fed chair signals more aggressive rate rises to tame inflation

Bethany Beckett, UK economist at Capital Economics, has looked at what the chancellor might do tomorrow.

Notwithstanding the deterioration in the public finances in February, large revisions to the back data mean that borrowing in 2021/22 is on track to undershoot the OBR’s October 2021 forecast by a huge £23bn.

Even so, we suspect the sharper rise in debt interest costs in February than many expected may embolden the chancellor to keep a fairly tight grip on the public finances in tomorrow’s spring statement.

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Egypt fixes price of bread as Ukraine war hits wheat supply

Commercially sold bread set at 11.50 Egyptian pounds a kilo as Russian invasion sends wheat prices soaring

Egypt has fixed the price of unsubsidised bread amid a global surge in wheat prices since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

The move comes after war shut off access to cheaper wheat from the Black Sea region, particularly affecting exports to the Middle East and north African region. Egypt is the world’s biggest wheat importer, bringing in about 60% of its grain from overseas. Russia and Ukraine accounted for 80% of the country’s imports last year.

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After Ukraine, how will the world replace Russia’s oil products?

A report from the International Energy Agency makes clear that viable alternatives are limited

As Boris Johnson flew to the Gulf this week to ask for more oil to replace supplies from Russia, he was accused by the Labour leader, Keir Starmer, of “going cap in hand from dictator to dictator”.

At the same time, a report produced by the International Energy Agency (IEA) underlined just how limited the options are for any economy seeking to replace Russian crude and other oil products.

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Car-free Sundays? IEA sets out 10-point plan to reduce global oil demand

Energy watchdog says measures could help cut oil usage by 2.7m barrels a day within four months

Driving more slowly, turning down the air-conditioning, car free Sundays and working from home should be adopted as emergency measures to reduce the global demand for oil, according to a 10-point plan from the International Energy Agency (IEA).

Such measures and changes to consumer behaviour would allow the world to cut its oil usage by 2.7m barrels per day (bpd) within four months – equivalent to more than half of Russia’s exports – the global energy watchdog said.

Reduce speed limits on highways by at least 10 km/h
Saves about 290,000 bpd of oil use from cars, and an additional 140,000 bpd if trucks also reduced their speed.

“A reduction in speed limits can be implemented by national governments; many countries did so during the 1973 oil crisis, including the United States and several European countries,” the IEA said.

Work from home up to three days a week where possible
One day a week saves about 170,000 bpd; three days saves about 500,000.

Pre-pandemic, the use of private vehicles to commute was responsible for about 2.7m barrels of oil use a day, the IEA said, yet about one-third of those jobs could be done from home.

Car-free Sundays in cities
Every Sunday saves about 380,000 bpd; one Sunday a month saves 95,000.

Switzerland, the Netherlands and West Germany did this during the 1973 oil crisis and some cities have used the measure to promote public health more recently. Benefits include cleaner air, reduced noise pollution and improved road safety, the IEA report said.

Make public transport cheaper and incentivise walking and cycling
Saves about 330,000 bpd.

New Zealand is halving public transport fares for the next three months in response to high fuel prices, while studies in the US have shown cheaper fares lead to greater use. Some governments have incentivised people to walk or subsidised bike purchases. All of this would require government subsidy.

Alternate private car access to roads in large cities (eg every other day)
Saves about 210,000 bpd.

For example, cars whose number plate ends with an odd number can drive on Monday and those with an even number can drive on Tuesdays. Such schemes have been deployed to tackle congestion and air pollution peaks in Athens, Madrid, Paris, Milan and Mexico City. Exceptions could be made for electric vehicles. One downside is that households with multiple cars could game the rules.

Increase car sharing and adopt practices to reduce fuel use
Saves about 470,000 bpd.

Carpooling has long been used as a way to save money and reduce emissions. Governments can incentivise this with dedicated traffic lanes and parking spaces, or by reducing road tolls on higher occupancy vehicles. Many smartphone apps exist to arrange ride-shares.

Promote efficient driving for freight trucks and delivery of goods
Saves about 320,000 bpd.

As with private cars, freight trucks can be driven more efficiently, including the use of so-called “eco-driving” techniques such as reducing excess weight and not slowing down or speeding up abruptly. Loads should also be optimised to avoid journeys with empty vehicles.

Using high-speed and night trains instead of planes
Saves about 40,000 bpd.

Based on existing high-speed rail infrastructure, about 2% of flights in advanced economies could be shifted to trains, according to the IEA. Almost all of this involves flights of less than 800km.

Avoid business air travel where alternative options exist
Saves about 260,000 bpd.

The IEA recommends virtual meetings where possible and points out that firms such as HSBC, Zurich Insurance and S&P Global plan to cut their business travel emissions by as much as 70%.

Reinforce the adoption of electric and more efficient vehicles
Saves about 100,000 bpd.

By the end of last year, 8.4m electrical vehicles (EVs) were on the road in advanced economies but the IEA urged faster adoption. “Actions taken now to hasten the adoption of electric vehicles will have a sustained effect in the future,” it said.

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Philippines considers four-day working week to combat rising costs

Economist calls for compressed working hours with 10-hour days in response to higher fuel prices

The Philippines is considering a four-day working week to conserve energy, as the cost of fuel continues to rise globally, driven by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Officials are searching for ways to soften the impact of dramatic price increases, which have prompted calls for a rise in the minimum wage and greater assistance for drivers.

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Boris Johnson upbeat on Saudi oil supply as kingdom executes three more

PM accused of ‘trading blood for oil’ as he seeks increased Middle East output to lessen reliance on Russia

Boris Johnson has hinted Saudi Arabia could speed up oil production to help calm spiralling energy prices for Britons, as he praised the country for improving its human rights record despite three more people being executed during his visit.

With pressure rising at home over a cost of living crisis compounded by western countries trying to end their reliance on Russian imports, the UK prime minister made a dash to the Middle East to urge leaders to help stabilise oil prices by ramping up supply.

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