Working class deserting Tories in droves under Rishi Sunak, poll finds

But report says Labour lead is much narrower among working-class voters than electorate as a whole and urges focus on fairness

Working-class people who were a key part of the coalition of voters that delivered the Conservatives’ 2019 general election win have been deserting the party in droves under Rishi Sunak’s leadership, polling has found.

Only 44% of working-class voters who voted for the Tories in 2019 say they will back the party next time, according to research by YouGov released as Keir Starmer prepares to make what will probably be his last pitch for support at a Labour conference before a general election.

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Starmer warns Labour: ‘Don’t get giddy over prospect of election victory’

In an exclusive interview, the party’s leader says it is on course for Downing Street, but must not repeat past opposition mistakes

• Keir Starmer interview

Keir Starmer on Sunday warns his party not to become “giddy” about the prospect of power, as he declares that Labour is “bang on schedule” to win the next general election.

After his party’s stunning win over the Scottish National party in the Rutherglen and Hamilton West byelection, the Labour leader uses an exclusive interview with the Observer to spell out how a Labour government will “power” economic growth across the country by training up hundreds of thousands of workers in a new nationwide network of skills colleges, geared to the needs of local economies and industries of the future.

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Poll predicts landslide Labour election victory with 12 cabinet ministers losing their seats

Dramatic findings point to Conservatives losing every red wall seat that they secured at the last election

Labour is currently on course to win a landslide victory on the scale of 1997, according to dramatic new modelling that points to the Conservatives losing every red wall seat secured at the last election.

The Tories could also lose more than 20 constituencies in its southern blue wall strongholds and achieve a record-low number of seats, according to a constituency-by-constituency model seen by the Observer. Deputy prime minister Oliver Dowden, defence secretary Grant Shapps and leadership contender Penny Mordaunt are among those facing defeat. Some 12 cabinet ministers face being unseated unless Rishi Sunak can close Labour’s poll lead.

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Rishi Sunak ‘responsible for biggest income tax rise in at least 50 years’

Resolution Foundation analysis claims stealth move of freezing tax thresholds will raise £40bn a year

Rishi Sunak’s government is responsible for the biggest income tax rise for decades in a stealth move that will raise £40bn a year, according to new analysis.

Taxpayers in the higher bracket will be handing over £3,700 a year more in tax as a result of a six-year freeze to income tax thresholds by 2027-28, the Resolution Foundation calculated.

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EU forges plan with UK and Albania to combat people smuggling

Five-point plan seeks to tackle organised crime across Europe as well as criminals operating boats

The EU has joined forces with the UK and Albania to extend the fight against people smugglers across the wider continent, after forceful interventions by Giorgia Meloni and Rishi Sunak at a summit of 47 European leaders in Spain.

The plan was forged at the sidelines of the European Political Community (EPC) summit in Granada with the European Commission president, Ursula von der Leyen, and the leaders of France, the Netherlands and Albania – Emmanuel Macron, Mark Rutte and Edi Rama – joining the Italian and UK prime ministers.

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Sunak’s ‘spiteful’ sale of land intended for HS2 dashes hopes of revival

Prime minister’s move criticised as ‘salting the earth’ so Birmingham-Crewe line cannot be built

A future Labour government would not be able to easily reverse Rishi Sunak’s decision to scrap the northern leg of HS2 as he has “spitefully” authorised the sale of properties that were subject to compulsory purchase orders on part of the route.

Steve Rotheram, the mayor of the Liverpool city region, said the move killed HS2 “stone dead” and would “tie any future government’s hands and make the delivery of HS2 for the north all but impossible”.

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Sunak’s plan to ditch A-levels is out of touch with reality, says union

Head of National Education Union says new qualification would need 5,300 additional teachers in England

Rishi Sunak wants to scrap A-levels and replace them with a single qualification that includes compulsory English and maths, bringing upheaval to sixth-form education in England that would last a decade.

The new baccalaureate-style Advanced British Standard, which Sunak announced in his speech to the Conservative party conference in Manchester, would also kill off the T-level vocational qualification the government launched just three years ago.

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Giorgia Meloni turns to Rishi Sunak to take battle against migration beyond EU

The two prime ministers have forced immigration onto the agenda at European Political Community summit in Granada

Giorgia Meloni has turned to the UK’s prime minister Rishi Sunak to take her battle against migration beyond the EU, it has emerged.

In what some are dubbing the Spanish framework, the prime ministers have forced migration on to the agenda at a historic meeting of about 50 European leaders in Granada on Thursday.

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Sunak scraps Manchester HS2 leg, plans to stop children today ever legally smoking and says A-levels to be replaced – UK politics live

Prime minister says HS2 move will release £36bn, that he will raise smoking age by one year, every year and announces five-subject qualification

Andy Burnham, the Labour mayor of Greater Manchester, has been giving interviews about HS2 this morning. He told BBC Breakfast that cancelling the link to Manchester would show that the north of England did not get the same priority as the south. He said:

It just proves there’s still so many people in politics, many of them in the Tory party, that think they can treat the north of England differently to the way they treat other parts of the country. It’s just so wrong.

I’ve been in politics 30 years, I’ve never seen a party come to a conference and leave an axe hanging over the place they’re in for the whole week. And then actually drop it on that place.

I’ve had so many contacts over the past few hours from people who are concerned as I am that we are using this culture war battleground to no good effect at all and we’re actually hurting people.

And we shouldn’t be doing that as Conservatives. That’s not the Conservative party I joined and I think we’re better than that.

Luckily that’s not going to happen … because I believe in the ultimate common sense of the party. Also, I very much hope that Suella Braverman learns about the power of her words and moderates her tone.

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Key takeaways from Rishi Sunak’s 7,500-word Tory conference speech

PM dresses up HS2 cancellation as fresh start as he attempts to portray himself as candidate for change

It was just over an hour long, and comprised more than 7,500 words, but what did Rishi Sunak’s conference speech actually contain? In some ways, quite a lot – but in others, remarkably little.

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Health charities welcome Sunak’s plan to curb smoking in England

PM’s aim to gradually increase age at which people can buy cigarettes described as ‘incredibly positive step forward’

Banning growing numbers of people in England from buying cigarettes is a bold move that will save lives and create the country’s first “smokefree generation”, health charities have said.

The plan, first reported in the Guardian and which Rishi Sunak formally unveiled in his leader’s speech at the Conservative party’s annual conference, will also help relieve the strain on the NHS, experts said.

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Sunak to tell Tories of Britain’s broken politics amid chaotic conference

Prime minister faces claims that after 13 years in power, many of the problems he highlights are of his own party’s making

Britain’s political system is broken and voters are exhausted, Rishi Sunak will say on Wednesday as he struggles to wrestle back control of the agenda at a Conservative conference dominated by rival factions, leadership posturing and speculation about HS2.

However, the prime minister faces claims that, after 13 years of Tory government, many of the problems he diagnoses in Westminster, including social care, the housing crisis and the NHS, are of his party’s own making.

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Sunak says HS2 decision should not be ‘rushed’ as he rejects claim dithering has derailed Tory conference – live

Prime minister says he will not make a ‘premature decision’ about where the high speed rail line will end

Nigel Farage has said that parts of the Conservative party are now like Ukip.

The former leader of Ukip and the Brexit party is attending the conference partly in his capacity as a GB News presenter. But he is also a popular figure with some Tories, and yesterday he was a prominent supporter in the audience as Liz Truss called for tax cuts at a rally.

I’ve been very consistent with the things that I’ve said over quite a long time. I’ve never really shifted from those views, whether it’s regards borders, increasing population, attitudes towards below small business, net zero, taxes. What’s interesting is there’s now a wing of the Conservative party that has woken up to these things and they’re now saying them.

Well, if you asked the delegates here, you might be surprised by the answer.

I think what people want from their prime ministers and their leaders is to do things that are going to make a difference to their lives.

I don’t think people are as interested in how much money is in my bank account. They’re interested in what I’m doing for them.

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Rishi Sunak refuses to make ‘premature decision’ over HS2

PM declines to reveal if Manchester to Birmingham line will be scrapped amid speculation over soaring costs

Rishi Sunak has insisted he is not going to be forced into a “premature decision” over the fate of the HS2 high-speed rail line as speculation about the multibillion pound project continued to overshadow the Conservative conference.

“I am not going to be forced into a premature decision because it is good for someone’s TV programme,” the prime minister told BBC Breakfast.

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Sunak fails to hand WhatsApp messages from time as chancellor to Covid inquiry

Exclusive: PM claims he has changed phone since running the Treasury and did not back up the messages

Rishi Sunak has failed to hand over his WhatsApp messages from his time as chancellor to the Covid inquiry despite the high court ruling that ministers should disclose their communications for scrutiny.

In his witness statement to the public inquiry, seen by the Guardian, the prime minister claimed that he did “not have access” to the messages during the period running the Treasury because he had changed his phone several times and failed to back them up.

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Rishi Sunak prepares to confirm scrapping of Manchester leg of HS2

Tory mayor of West Midlands says PM in danger of ‘cancelling the future’ as bitter row threatens to derail conference

Rishi Sunak has become embroiled in a bitter row with regional politicians, the transport industry and members of his own party as he prepared to announce the cancellation of the multibillion high speed rail line to Manchester.

The prime minister is set to call an emergency cabinet meeting on Tuesday at the Conservative party conference in Manchester, where ministers are expected to give their approval to the biggest infrastructure climbdown in a generation.

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Rishi Sunak claims putting reducing inflation ahead of tax cuts Thatcherite and ‘deeply Conservative’ – UK politics live

Prime minister says ‘the best tax cut we can give is to cut inflation’ after Michael Gove says taxes should be cut before general election

The BBC’s Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg is starting. As well as Rishi Sunak, Wes Streeting, the shadow health secretary, is also being interviewed.

Q: Do you still think we’ve had enough of experts?

Economic forecasting was invented to make astrology look respectable.

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Tory swing voters switch to Labour after Sunak’s green retreat, poll finds

Survey shows nearly 90% of 2019 Conservative voters say green industry is vital to UK’s economic growth

Almost nine in 10 voters who intend to switch their support from Conservative to Labour candidates in the next general election believe that “green growth” is important for the future of Britain’s economy, according to a poll.

Carried out by pollsters Opinium, the survey found that 82% of all respondents backed the growth of Britain’s green industry to boost the economy, in the same week that the prime minister announced a series of U-turns on the government’s green commitments in an attempt to create a dividing line with Labour before the election.

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Rishi Sunak shrugs off concerns that U-turns might make UK a ‘laughing stock’

Prime minister says investors are excited about Britain and that he instinctively understands what the public wants

Rishi Sunak has rejected criticism that recent U-turns mean the UK cannot be taken seriously, as he fought to maintain order before a Conservative conference set to be dominated by questions about tax cuts and rivals jostling to succeed him.

In the traditional pre-conference TV interview, the prime minister again refused to say whether HS2 would extend as far as Manchester, the host city for the conference, which begins on Sunday afternoon.

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Tory turmoil as third of voters desert party and factions launch rival manifestoes

Exclusive poll for Observer reveals Conservatives have lost support in their southern England heartlands and the Red Wall

The coalition of voters that delivered the Tories a big majority at the last election is crumbling, according to dramatic new evidence that the party is losing support in key battlegrounds across England.

The findings, revealed in a special poll of 2019 Tory voters for the Observer, comes as Rishi Sunak faces a series of competing and contradictory demands from warring Tory factions ahead of the party’s conference in Manchester.

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