The escalation trap: how the Iran war could become more costly and complex

Iran is trying to create wedges between Gulf states and the US, but Trump is very comfortable on the ‘escalatory ladder’

Middle East crisis – live updates

In its current phase, the Israeli-US war against Iran and its proxies has become a proving ground for two competing concepts of military escalation, each of which threatens to become a trap.

On one side, Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu have failed thus far in their ill-defined and shifting strategic aims. Despite killing Iran’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, and other key leaders in the opening salvo of the campaign, the clerical regime remains and Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium is unsecured. Airstrikes are intensifying and hitting a greater number of targets.

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Iran threatens to escalate war after Trump says ‘many countries’ will send warships to strait of Hormuz

US president calls on China, France, Japan and the UK to send vessels after US strikes Kharg Island oil facilities

Iran threatened on Saturday to further escalate the war raging in the Middle East by targeting any facility in the region with US ties, after Donald Trump predicted “many countries” would send warships to support a US bid to reopen by force the strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway closed to virtually all maritime traffic by Tehran since the beginning of the war.

Iran has responded to the joint US-Israeli offensive, which is entering its third week, with daily attacks on oil and other infrastructure around the Gulf region, as well as against Israel.

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Cuban president confirms talks with Trump officials amid US blockade

Negotiations aimed to ‘find solutions to the bilateral differences’ between the countries, Miguel Díaz-Canel said

Cuban officials have held talks with the US government, the country’s president, Miguel Díaz-Canel, confirmed on Friday, amid growing pain inflicted by a punishing US fuel blockade and frequent power failures.

“These talks have been aimed at finding solutions through dialogue to the bilateral differences we have between the two nations,” Díaz-Canel said in a prerecorded statement to senior Communist officials.

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‘A minefield’: taoiseach prepares for St Patrick’s Day visit to Washington

Traditionally jovial affair poses potential debacle for Irish leader at odds with US over foreign policy, tax and immigration

For Ireland’s leaders, it has long been the highlight of the political calendar: a love-fest in Washington with hosts who sport shamrocks and toast Saint Patrick.

Irish delegations are traditionally received on Capitol Hill and at the White House in a blaze of goodwill and backslapping that has them wishing every day was 17 March.

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Four crew confirmed dead after US military plane crash in Iraq

Rescue efforts continue for remaining two crew members from refuelling plane that crashed in western desert

Four of the six crew members onboard a US military aircraft that crashed in western Iraq were killed, the US military has said as rescue efforts continued for the remaining two.

The KC-135 military refuelling plane crashed in western Iraq on Thursday, in an incident the military said involved another aircraft but was not the result of hostile or friendly fire.

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US weighs sending forces into Iran to secure nuclear stockpile, reports say

Tehran has enough material to make at least 10 nuclear warheads but extracting it would be very risky, say experts

The Trump administration is reportedly considering the deployment of special forces into Iran to secure its stockpile of highly enriched uranium (HEU), which experts say could be used to make at least 10 nuclear warheads.

Preventing Iran from acquiring a bomb is one of Trump’s stated war aims, and the 440kg HEU stockpile represents the greatest nuclear threat as it could be turned into weapons-grade uranium relatively easily. The US secretary of state, Marco Rubio, has told Congress that “people are going to have to go and get it”.

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Trump claims Iran or ‘somebody else’ could have carried out deadly school strike

President makes evidence-free claim despite video showing US Tomahawk missile hit naval base next to school

As oil prices surged amid the widening war with Iran, Donald Trump suggested, without evidence, on Monday that the strike on an Iranian elementary school could have been carried out by Iran or “somebody else”.

During back-to-back appearances in Florida, Trump was asked whether the US would accept responsibility for a strike that hit the school and killed scores of people, many of them children, after video evidence showed a US Tomahawk struck the naval base next to it.

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Ig Nobels to move awards to Europe due to concern over US travel visas

Scientific awards – which honor research that makes people laugh and then think – to move away from ‘unsafe’ US

The annual Ig Nobels, a satirical award for scientific achievement, are shifting for the first time from the US to Europe due to concerns about attendees getting visas, organizers announced on Monday.

Organized by the Annals of Improbable Research, a digital magazine that highlights research that makes people laugh and then think, the 36th annual ceremony will be held in Zurich. It’s usually held in the US in September, a few weeks before the actual Nobel prizes are announced.

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Democrats file new war powers resolutions and call for public hearings on Iran strikes

Senators say Trump allies such as Hegseth and Rubio should be forced to testify to Congress on ‘unnecessary war’

Democratic senators have filed a wave of new war powers resolutions as they call on Republicans to convene public hearings into the US hostilities with Iran or be forced to vote on continuing a conflict that polls show majorities of Americans do not support.

Late last week, Democrats Cory Booker of New Jersey, Tim Kaine of Virginia, Adam Schiff of California, Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin and Chris Murphy of Connecticut filed resolutions under the War Powers Act that would force the US military to withdraw from the war with Iran unless Congress votes to authorize the engagement.

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Monday briefing: ​How are Iranians abroad grappling with loss and uncertainty from afar?

In today’s newsletter: Across the Iranian diaspora, reactions to the escalating conflict reveal a complex mix of fear, grief and deep political ambivalence

Good morning. War has broken out in the Middle East. As the Iran war broadens and spills out into neighbouring countries, media agencies have rightly focused on trying to understand how the conflict came about, where bombs have fallen, and how many have died, while many states globally fear spikes in energy prices and wonder how the war will impact their economies.

What can easily get lost are the voices of the people directly affected.

Iran | Mojtaba Khamenei, the second son of the late Iranian supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has been chosen as his successor.

UK politics | Keir Starmer sought to repair fractured relations with Donald Trump over the war with Iran on Sunday, as a Labour backlash gathered pace over Tony Blair’s assertion the UK should have supported the US’s initial airstrikes on Iran.

Energy | Great Britain has only two days of fossil gas stored after a decline in energy reserves, as more tankers carrying liquefied natural gas are diverted from their course to Europe towards Asia because of the Iran war. Meanwhile, global oil prices surged past the $100 (£74) a barrel mark for the first time since 2022.

Health | More than 400 lives may have been saved as a result of Martha’s rule, which lets NHS patients request a review of their care. Thousands of patients were either moved to intensive care, received drugs they needed or benefited from other changes as a direct result of over 10,000 calls to helplines.

AI | ChatGPT is driving a rise in reports of organised ritual abuse and “witchcraft, spirit possession and spiritual abuse” against children – which is historically under-reported in the UK – as survivors of “satanic” sexual violence use the AI tool for therapy.

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Trump convenes ‘Shield of Americas’ summit with 12 Latin American leaders

In Miami, president calls for regional cooperation to counter Chinese economic and political interests

Donald Trump changed the channel from Iran to the western hemisphere on Saturday, convening a gathering of Latin American leaders at his Miami-area golf club to discuss regional interests and establishing what he called a “counter-cartel coalition”.

“Just as we formed a coalition to eradicate Isis, we now need a coalition to eradicate the cartels,” he told 12 regional leaders gathered at what the White House called the “Shield of the Americas” summit.

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Four US bombers land at RAF base in UK after warning of surge in strikes on Iran

B-1 Lancers arrive at RAF Fairford in Gloucestershire after Starmer allows US to use UK as a base for ‘defensive’ action

Four US bombers have landed at an RAF base in Britain to carry out “specific defensive operations” to stop Iran firing missiles into the Middle East, the Ministry of Defence has said.

The B-1 Lancers, which are 45 metres (146ft) long and capable of carrying 24 cruise missiles, arrived at RAF Fairford in Gloucestershire, one on Friday evening and three on Saturday morning, after Keir Starmer had granted permission for “defensive” US action against Iranian missile sites from UK bases.

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Trump skirts Congress over Iran war as Republicans simply step aside

Senate blocks war powers measure and House follows suit – now president can bomb Iran free from congressional interference

Before US troops invaded Iraq, George W Bush asked Congress to pass a resolution authorizing military force against Washington’s longtime nemesis, a request that lawmakers obliged.

Twenty four years later, the United States is at war with a different Middle Eastern rival – Iran – under a different Republican president – Donald Trump. But this time, the president did not bother to seek permission from the Senate and House of Representatives before joining Israel in launching the air and naval campaign. And far from objecting, Congress’s Republican majorities have simply stepped aside.

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‘An ideological guest list’: Trump invites Latin America’s rightwing leaders to Florida summit

Omission of presidents of Brazil, Mexico and Colombia, however, exposes failure of US president’s ‘theatrical’ doctrine, say experts

Donald Trump will welcome the leaders of at least 10 Latin American countries to a palm-dotted golf resort in Miami on Saturday as the president continues his quest to transform the US’s standing in the region and outmuscle China.

Since returning to power last year, Trump has launched a dramatic – and at times deadly – crusade to, as the Pentagon chief, Pete Hegseth, put it, “reclaim our back yard”.

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US grants waiver to allow India to buy Russian oil amid Iran war

‘Stopgap measure’ designed to keep oil flowing into global market as Middle East crisis disrupts crude shipments

The US has temporarily allowed India to buy Russian oil currently stuck at sea in an effort to keep global supplies flowing and temper further price increases.

On Thursday the US treasury issued a 30-day waiver allowing India to buy Russian oil, having previously imposed heavy sanctions related to the war in Ukraine.

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New York and other US states sue Trump over ‘illegal and reckless’ tariffs

Lawsuit says president does not have authority to impose levies and demands refunds from federal government

A coalition of Democratic attorneys general and governors across 24 US states are suing Donald Trump to block his latest round of tariffs.

The White House is planning to enact a new 15% tariff on all imports after the supreme court declared Trump’s “liberation day” tariffs illegal. The tariffs have yet to go into effect, though the White House said the new rate would start this week.

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Dismay as Hegseth urges Latin American allies to join ‘offense’ against cartels

Critics sceptical Pentagon chief’s plan for increased military force – amid rising US intervention – will stop drug gangs

Pete Hegseth, the US defence secretary, has urged Latin American countries to adopt a more aggressive approach against drug cartels, warning that the Trump administration may otherwise act unilaterally in the region.

Hegseth’s remarks come in a context of escalating US intervention in the region, both militarily and in elections, which culminated in the capture of Venezuelan dictator Nicolás Maduro – the first US ground military attack on a South American country.

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Israel orders more than 500,000 people to evacuate Beirut’s southern suburbs

Instruction comes as Israel continues to bomb Lebanon and Iran, while Tehran launches retaliatory strikes

The Israeli military has ordered the entire population of Beirut’s southern suburbs to evacuate, as it continued to bomb Lebanon and Iran, while Tehran launched retaliatory strikes against Israel and US bases across the region.

An Israel Defense Forces spokesperson told all residents of Beirut’s southern suburbs – more than 500,000 people – to “save your lives and evacuate your homes immediately”, before Israel launched airstrikes on what he described as Hezbollah targets. The area covered by the order included several hospitals and government ministries.

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Blackout in Cuba leaves millions without power amid US oil chokehold

Latest outage darkens island facing dwindling oil reserves and increasing pressure from Washington

A blackout hit the western half of Cuba on Wednesday, leaving millions of people in Havana and beyond without power in the latest outage to affect an island struggling with dwindling oil reserves and a crumbling electricity grid.

The government’s Electric Union confirmed the outage on social platform X, saying it affected people from the eastern town of Pinar del Rio to the central town of Camaguey.

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Cuba charges six exiles with terrorism in wake of deadly speedboat attack

Detainees accused of coming from the US with intent to sow chaos and attack military units on Communist-ruled island

Cuban prosecutors have formally charged six people with crimes of terrorism after a US-flagged speedboat was involved in a deadly shootout with Cuba’s coast guard last week.

The US-based Cuban defendants are accused of packing a boat with weapons and heading toward Cuba in hopes of destabilising the government in Havana.

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