Monday briefing: Local election catastrophe for the Conservatives

In today’s newsletter: Rishi Sunak’s party were expecting a difficult contest – but the results were even more dire than predicted, as political correspondent Kiran Stacey explains

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A fraught situation is intensifying in Rafah, the city in southern Gaza where more than a million displaced people have been sheltering. Israel’s armed forces have this morning called for those in the “eastern neighbourhoods of Rafah” to “temporarily” evacuate to an expanded humanitarian area in Al-Mawasi. It comes after months of warnings that there would be a ground invasion of the beleaguered city as Israeli forces pursue Hamas militants. To keep a close eye on further developments, follow the Guardian’s live blog.

China | Xi Jinping has arrived in Paris for a rare visit against a backdrop of mounting trade disputes with the EU. The French president, Emmanuel Macron, is set to urge his Chinese counterpart to reduce trade imbalances and to use his influence with Russia over the war in Ukraine.

Israel-Gaza war | Israel used a US weapon in a March airstrike that killed seven volunteer paramedics in southern Lebanon, according to a Guardian analysis of shrapnel found at the site of the attack, which was described by Human Rights Watch as a violation of international law. In Jersualem, authorities shut down the local offices of Al Jazeera on Sunday, using newly approved laws. Critics called the move – which came amid faltering indirect ceasefire negotiations between Israel and Hamas – a “dark day for the media”.

Immigration and asylum | Rwanda has admitted it cannot guarantee how many people it will take from the UK under Rishi Sunak’s deportation scheme. It did not give assurances that the estimated 52,000 asylum seekers eligible to be sent to Kigali would be accepted, instead saying it would be “thousands”.

Agriculture | The National Farmers’ Union warned that farmers’ confidence has hit its lowest level in at least 14 years, with extreme weather and the post-Brexit phasing-out of EU subsidies blamed for the drop. Most farms are expecting to reduce food production next year, with arable farming particularly badly hit.

Transport | Train drivers in the Aslef union are embarking on another round of industrial action, despite tentative attempts by the industry to restart talks. Drivers will strike for 24 hours at each of England’s national train operators from Tuesday until Thursday, while an overtime ban will apply nationwide from today until Saturday.

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Scaling back Labour’s workers’ rights plan would be disastrous, warns TUC president

Reports say Sir Keir Starmer may risk union support and bow to pressure from business to amend new deal

Watering down Labour’s plan to strengthen workers’ rights would be disastrous for the party’s relations with the unions and could cost votes at the general election, the president of the Trades Union Congress has warned.

Amid reports that Sir Keir Starmer may bow to pressure from business and amend important parts of his “new deal for workers”, Matt Wrack said the Labour leader risked causing “significant anger” among union members.

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Labour to target south of England at general election, campaign chief says

Pat McFadden says local election results give the party confidence it can win ‘blue wall’ seats that are ‘turning red’

Labour is planning to target the south of England heavily at the general election as the local election results show some “blue wall” seats are turning red, Keir Starmer’s election chief has said.

The shadow cabinet minister Pat McFadden said Labour was advancing in southern Tory heartlands and it was wrong to think the Lib Dems were the only challengers to the Conservatives in the south.

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Labour ‘working to get support back’ after losing votes over Gaza stance

Analysis shows almost 18% drop in party’s vote in areas of England where more than a fifth are Muslim

A senior Labour official has insisted the party wants better lives for Palestinian people as it prepares to shift its campaigning to win back voters opposing its position on Gaza.

Pat McFadden, the party’s national election coordinator, said it would “work to get people’s support back” as analysis showed that despite huge gains in council seats, seizing the West Midlands mayoralty, and Sadiq Khan, the Muslim mayor of London, winning a third term, there was an almost 18% drop in the Labour vote in areas of England where more than a fifth of people identified as Muslim.

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Andy Street tells Tories not to abandon moderate Conservatism as party mulls over dire election results – UK politics live

West Midlands mayor had been expected to hold on but was defeated by Labour by 1,508 votes to cap awful results for Tories

Good morning. The local elections are over, all but three results (one council, and two police and crime commissioner posts) are now in, and they have been just about as dire for Rishi Sunak and the Conservatives as the national opinion poll figures implied they would be. On the plus side for Sunak, the rebels in his party who were hoping that terrible results would provide the springboard for a no confidence motion seem to have accepted that they don’t have the numbers, and the notional “coup” has been called off. But that won’t stop Tory MPs being pitched into a difficult debate about their future, and last night Andy Street made a defiant intervention, telling his party not to drift to the right.

Street had been expected to hold on as mayor of the West Midlands. He was defeated by Labour by just 1,508 votes, and in an interview with Sky News afterwards he said the message for his party from his campaign was that it should not give up on moderate conservatism. He said:

The thing everyone should take from Birmingham and the West Midlands tonight is this brand of moderative, inclusive, tolerant conservatism, that gets on and delivered, has come within an ace of beating the Labour party in what they considered to be their backyard - that’s the message from here tonight.

I would definitely not advise that drift.

The psychology here is really very straightforward isn’t it: this is the youngest, most diverse, one of the most urban places in Britain and we’ve done, many would say, extremely well over a consistent period.

The public are not rushing to vote for Sir Keir, though they feel sorely let down by us. They want a reason to vote Conservative, but we are failing to provide them with one. We need to be frank about this if we are to have any chance of fixing the problem.

On tax, migration, the small boats and law and order, we need to demonstrate strong leadership, not managerialism. Make a big and bold offer on tax cuts, rather than tweaking as we saw in the Budget. Place a cap on legal migration once and for all. Leave the ECHR to stop the boats. Tangible improvement to our NHS and tougher sentences for criminals. Start holding failing police chiefs to account so that antisocial behaviour, shoplifting and knife crime are actually sorted out. Take back control of our streets from the extremists. And instead of paying lip service in guidance on transgender ideology in schools, let’s actually change the law to ban the abuse of our children.

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Unite warns it will hold back funds if Labour weakens plan on workers’ rights

Union leader Sharon Graham says Keir Starmer risks ‘limping into Downing Street’

Labour’s biggest union backer has warned it may divert election funding earmarked for the party, amid claims that Keir Starmer is diluting plans to overhaul workers’ rights.

In an interview with the Observer, Unite’s general secretary, Sharon Graham, said the Labour leader risked “limping into Downing Street” if he backed down in the face of intense lobbying from businesses.

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Conservatives crushed by ‘worst local election result’ in years

Spread of Tory losses leads former minister to say there’s ‘no such thing as a safe seat any more’

The Conservatives are facing one of their worst local election results in 40 years, with striking Labour gains across England and Wales in key battlegrounds they need to secure victory at the general election.

The spread of the Conservative losses led one former minister to claim there was “no such thing really as a safe Tory seat any more”, but the prime minister appeared committed to clinging on until polling day, with rebels in his own party lacking the support to oust him.

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Big Tory losses but no Labour landslide. What might happen at Westminster? – a visual analysis

Tory council representation has imploded, but Labour’s gains have not been seismic. These charts show what this may signal for a general election

Conservative representation has collapsed to its lowest level since 1998 in the areas that voted in Thursday’s local elections, according to a Guardian analysis.

The Tories now control 19% of seats in the 98 council areas that had announced results by 20:40 on 3 May – their lowest level since Labour’s Tony Blair swept to power in the late 1990s.

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Labour’s Claire Ward elected first mayor of East Midlands as Sunak gets boost in Tees Valley after Tory losses – live

Party source describes region as ‘beating heart of general election battleground’ as prime minister says Labour threw ‘lot of mud’

The results of the London mayoral contest and London assembly elections are due on Saturday. Labour’s Sadiq Khan is seeking a third term and polls have put him comfortably ahead of Tory Susan Hall, despite jitters in Khan’s campaign team.

Following the closure of the polls tonight, Khan said his campaign and Labour activists “sent out a message of fairness, of equality and of hope”.

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Key points as local election results show major Tory losses

With almost all council elections declared, Conservatives are on course to lose up to 500 seats

At the start of a long weekend of election results, the first outcomes have been every bit as dire for the Conservatives and Rishi Sunak as analysts had predicted. Here is the state of play.

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UK general election opinion poll tracker: Labour leading as election looms

Find out who’s up and who’s down in the latest polls – and how many seats each party is likely to win in the next general election

The next UK general election is looming, with most analysts expecting it to be called late this year.

After 13 years of Conservative rule, Keir Starmer’s Labour has been consistently ahead in the polls since the start of 2022.

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Starmer hails Blackpool South win as result points to big Labour victory at general election

Pollsters say early results suggest Tories could lose half of council seats contested, putting party on course for as many as 500 losses

Keir Starmer has hailed Labour’s “seismic” win in Blackpool South in a night of local elections that provided further evidence that the party is heading for a large majority at this year’s general election.

The Labour leader called the result in the Blackpool South byelection “truly historic” after the party’s candidate, Chris Webb, won the seat with the third biggest swing from the Conservatives to Labour in postwar history.

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Local elections 2024: full council results for England

Results from more than 100 English councils, as well as for several mayors, are announced. So far the Conservatives have lost control of several key councils but have won the Tees Valley mayoral contest. Find out what happened in your area

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Swinney expected to become Scotland’s first minister next week after Kate Forbes rules herself out – UK politics live

Former finance secretary who was narrowly beaten by Humza Yousaf in last year’s SNP leadership contest, has announced that she will not standing this time

Swinney has confirmed he is standing for SNP leader.

John Swinney is about to speak at his press conference in Edinburgh.

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Labour concern grows over donations to Vaughan Gething’s campaign in Wales

Welsh first minister urged to pay back £200,000 to firm whose owner was convicted of environmental crimes

There is growing anger and concern within the Labour party that the new Welsh first minister, Vaughan Gething, took £200,000 from a company whose owner was convicted of environmental crimes, with insiders warning it was critically undermining his authority and could cost the party votes at the general election.

Gething, who made history when he became the first black leader of a European country in March, is facing growing calls to pay the money back and order an independent inquiry into the donations, which helped him secure a narrow victory in the race to replace Mark Drakeford.

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SNP defeats Labour confidence motion and sets out plan for choosing new leader

Spokesperson confirms ‘informal meeting’ has taken place between leadership frontrunners John Swinney and Kate Forbes

The SNP government has headed off Labour’s attempt to force an early Holyrood election, as the frontrunners to succeed Humza Yousaf met for informal talks in an attempt to avoid another divisive leadership contest.

Anas Sarwar’s motion of no confidence in Yousaf’s administration – which would have forced all government ministers to resign – was defeated by 70 votes to 58 on Wednesday afternoon after the Greens voted with the SNP.

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Labour’s ‘new deal for workers’ will not fully ban zero-hours contracts

Exclusive: Revised proposals will allow employees to choose a zero-hour option, prompting fears of undue pressure from employers

Labour is facing criticism over plans for a loophole that would allow employees to work under zero-hours contracts, despite the party having pledged to ban them entirely.

Keir Starmer’s party is preparing to announce details of its promise to overhaul workers’ rights if it gets into power – a centrepiece of its early plans for government, but subject to fierce lobbying from businesses.

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Sadiq Khan calls Tories unpatriotic for ‘trying to do London down’

Exclusive: Mayor says Conservative government has put obstacles in his way each day of his eight years in office

Sadiq Khan has called the Conservatives’ treatment of London “unpatriotic” as he accused the government of putting obstacles in his way every day of his eight years running the capital.

The London mayor accused the Tories of “trying to do us down” at every opportunity for political reasons in long-running battles over police funding, cuts to London’s transport budget and in planning decisions.

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Kate Forbes denies claims SNP figures are discouraging her to run for leader – UK politics live

Runner-up in the SNP leadership contest last time around says she is still weighing decision on whether to stand

When Hilary Cass published her review of gender identity services for children, saying medical evidence did not generally justify giving puberty blockers and cross-sex hormones to children, she said the “toxity of the debate” around trans children was exceptional, and she said she would like to see the issue discussed in a less polarised way.

But that has not stopped her report becoming a political football. The UK government responded to it with a ministerial statement treating it as a landmark victory in a culture war. In Scotland the Cass report arguably contributed to the downfall of Humza Yousaf, because it was the Rainbow Greens who launched the process to end the SNP/Scottish Greens pact, and they were partly motivated by the SNP government’s stance on puberty blockers.

The landmark Cass review is hugely significant for Wales. Regretfully, despite the weight of the findings, we are still yet to see a Labour minister come to the Senedd and give a statement in response.

In the Senedd tomorrow, I look forward to bringing forward a Welsh Conservative debate on the Cass review, and will call on the Labour government to adopt the recommendations of the Cass review.

The Cass review aims to ensure children and young people who are questioning their gender identity or experiencing gender dysphoria, and require support from the NHS, receive a high standard of care that meets their needs and is safe, holistic and effective.

We are committed to improving the gender identity development pathway and the support available for young people in Wales, in line with the commitments in our LGBTQ+ plan.

I’m the first chairman of the ‘22 who has had to operate it while we’ve been in government … And so my view is that that was a mistake to introduce that rule.

I think it’s fine to have the party members voting on the leader when you’re in opposition. But in a parliamentary system where essentially you could only remain prime minister if you enjoyed the confidence of your party in parliament, it seems to me crazy that we now have different mechanisms … The Conservative members of parliament can get rid of the leader by voting no confidence, but then the leader is supplied by the party members.

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Humza Yousaf quits as Scotland’s first minister – as it happened

Scotland’s first minister resigns after failing to muster enough votes to survive a no confidence vote this week

Humza Yousaf is holding a press conference at noon, Sky News and the BBC are reporting.

Mandy Rhodes, editor of the Holyrood magazine, says she was due to interview Humza Yousaf this afternoon, but he’s cancelled.

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