Blindsided: how coronavirus felled the global economy in 100 days

A singular event has economists asking the same questions as everyone else: how far is there to fall – and can we ever get back?

It is New Year’s Eve 2019 and around the world stock markets are closing for business on a high note. Shares in the US are up by almost 30% on the year, those in Japan by 18%. Even in Britain, where the mood has been dampened by months of Brexit uncertainty, the FTSE 100 has risen by 12%.

Overall, it had been the best year for stocks since 2009 and traders saw no real reason why the party should not continue into 2020. The US and China looked close to an armistice in their trade war, the US central bank was stimulating the world’s biggest economy, and Boris Johnson’s decisive victory in the general election had removed any lingering doubts about whether Britain would leave the European Union.

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Donald Trump ‘lost $1bn in a month’ from coronavirus lockdown

Stock market crash strips billionaire status from 267 of world’s richest people in the annual list

Donald Trump lost an estimated $1bn of his paper fortune in the past month as the coronavirus lockdown forced the closure of offices, shopping centres, hotels and golf courses he owns.

The US president’s fortune has fallen from an estimated $3.1bn (£2.5bn) on 1 March to $2.1bn on 18 March (at the height of stock market panic caused by the coronavirus pandemic) according to Forbes magazine’s annual billionaires list.

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Coronavirus: Republican senators sold stocks before markets plunged on Covid-19 fears – reports

Richard Burr, chairman of the Senate intelligence committee, and Kelly Loeffler of Georgia have denied they kept the public in the dark

Two Republican senators have faced demands to resign after it was reported they sold off millions of dollars worth of stocks just before the market dropped amid fears of the coronavirus pandemic.

Richard Burr of North Carolina, chairman of the Senate intelligence committee, and Kelly Loeffler of Georgia, whose husband is chairman of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), denied that they kept the public in the dark about the scale of the threat.

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Markets plunge despite coordinated action by central banks

Sharp losses recorded after US interest rate cut, as Bank of England hints at further support to combat turmoil

The FTSE 100 fell below 5,000 points on Monday and trading on Wall Street was suspended for the third time in a week as markets were gripped by mounting concerns over the threat of a global recession, despite a coordinated effort by central banks to protect growth and jobs.

In an escalation of the worst turmoil since the 2008 financial crisis, stock markets suffered further sharp losses on Monday despite dramatic action taken by the US central bank late on Sunday in an attempt to limit the economic impact of the coronavirus pandemic.

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Fed bids to shore up confidence after worst week in 12 years

Pledges of help from EU, China and Germany plus declaration of US emergency produce mild rally after torrid week

The world’s most powerful central bank, the US Federal Reserve, is preparing a fresh attempt to shore up investor confidence despite a late rally on Wall Street on Friday that ended a torrid week for stock markets on a more positive note.

Fresh pledges of help from China, Germany and the European commission combined with Donald Trump’s declaration of a national emergency over coronavirus to reassure investors after an ordeal for equities on both sides of the Atlantic that echoed the depths of the banking crisis.

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Wall Street ends 11-year ‘bull market’ as coronavirus fears spread

US stock markets have been on an unprecedented streak since 2009, a bull market of gains

Wall Street’s record-breaking 11-year “bull market” came to an end on Wednesday as fears about the spreading Covid-19 pandemic hit stock markets again.

US stock markets have been on an unprecedented streak since 2009, a bull market of gains. On Wednesday investors sold off shares across all sectors after the World Health Organization declared the outbreak a pandemic for the first time and criticized “alarming levels of inaction” by governments in corralling the virus.

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FTSE on course for biggest fall since financial crisis

World markets plunge on back of coronavirus-driven recession fears and threat of oil price war

Global stock markets have suffered their biggest falls since the 2008 financial crisis and trading was temporarily suspended on Wall Street after an oil price crash rattled investors fearing a coronavirus-driven global recession.

Dealing in shares on the main US indices was frozen within minutes of the opening bell, as circuit breakers were triggered by a 7% fall on the S&P 500. Once trading resumed 15 minutes later, the Dow Jones Industrial Average completed a fall of more than 2,000 points for the first time ever – a fall of more than 7%.

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Saudi Arabia price war wipes billions from value of major oil firms

Royal Dutch Shell and BP lose more than £32bn from their combined market value

Saudi Arabia’s oil price war has wiped billions of pounds from the market value of the industry’s biggest companies after oil markets recorded one of the biggest price slumps in history.

The decision of the world’s largest oil-producing nation to increase its production even as the coronavirus outbreak stalls global oil demand triggered a 30% drop in oil prices on Monday morning.

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Coronavirus: South Korea reports ‘critical moment’ after 813 new cases – latest updates

US strengthens travel advice, raising Iran and Italy to a level three, advising people to ‘avoid nonessential travel’. Follow live news

US confirms first death from the coronavirus in King County in Washington state.

BREAKING: First death from Coronavirus in Washington State - awaiting details on patient said to be from King County - @GovInslee statement @KIRORadio #973FM #coronavirus pic.twitter.com/TjlmhRIeBB

Reuters reports that the number of confirmed cases of the coronavirus in Italy has climbed above 1,000, according to an official who said the number of deaths had surged to 29.

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Coronavirus: first case in Wales as two further cases in England take UK total to 19 – latest updates

Nigeria, New Zealand and Lithuania also report first cases as WHO says epidemic could get ‘out of control’. Follow live news

So coronavirus has finally arrived in sub-saharan Africa, with an Italian man who arrived in Nigeria three days ago becoming the country’s first case of the disease.

The case is in Lagos, a massive overcrowded city, which will raise fears that the virus might already have spread in Nigeria, Africa’s most populous country, and possibly further afield.

Nigeria is a major hub for air transport, commerce and culture. It has deep links with China, with continual and substantial traffic of people and goods. However this first confirmed case appears to have originated in Italy.

The WHO’s regional director for Africa, Dr Matshidiso Moeti, has warned that the “window of opportunity the continent has had to prepare for coronavirus disease is closing”.

Egypt had the first case of Covid-19 in Africa, announced on 14 February. Algeria declared it had a case on Tuesday – another Italian adult who arrived in the country on 17 February.

Earlier this month, officials at the WHO warned that porous borders, a continuing flow of travellers and poorly resourced healthcare systems meant the risk of an outbreak across Africa was “very, very high” and raised significant concerns about the ability of “fragile health systems” to cope with the epidemic.

But recent weeks have been used to reinforce testing regimes, isolation facilities and for public messaging too.

“Nigeria has dramatically improved its ability to manage the outbreak of a major pandemic since the Ebola scare in West Africa in 2014. Many of the lessons from keeping the country free of Ebola have informed the steps taken since the news of the coronavirus epidemic first broke,” wrote Folasade Ogunsola, professor of Clinical Microbiology, University of Lagos, on The Conversation website.

A further two coronavirus cases have been confirmed in England, bringing the total to 19.

Professor Chris Whitty, Chief Medical Officer for England, said:

Two further patients in England have tested positive for Covid-19. The virus was passed on in Iran and the patients have been transferred to specialist NHS infection centres at the Royal Free Hospital. The total number of cases in England is now 17. Following confirmed cases in Northern Ireland and Wales, the total number of UK cases is 19.

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Coronavirus: fourth Diamond Princess passenger dies as Japan closes some schools – live news

Concerns mount that the spread of Covid-19 cannot be stopped as stock markets fall amid investor fears. Follow latest news

Italy may need to call on the European Union to offer leeway on its budget targets as it struggles with the impact of the coronavirus outbreak, a senior official said.

Deputy economy minister, Laura Castelli, made the comments a day after prime minister Giuseppe Conte warned that the fallout from the outbreak, which has concentrated in the economic powerhouses of northern Italy, would be “very strong”.

If you want to share any thoughts or news tips with me about the coronavirus then please email: sarah.marsh@theguardian.com or tweet me @sloumarsh. My direct messages are open. Thanks

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German economy stagnates as eurozone growth hits seven-year low – business live

Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news, including the latest eurozone growth figures

Andrew Kenningham of Capital Economics has told clients:

“We think the economy will continue to flirt with recession in the first half of this year.”

It’s hard to put too much gloss on a stagnating economy, but the German government has tried to strike an optimistic-ish tone this morning.

Berlin’s economy ministry says Germany’s economy is going through a weak phase, but it’s encouraged that business sentiment has improved.

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Stocks and oil slump on fears over China virus outbreak – business live

Equity sell-off deepens and oil falls below $59 as death toll from coronavirus rises, sparking fears over economic impact

  • Stock markets in UK, Germany and France fall more than 2%

My colleague Joanna Partridge writes:

Brexit uncertainty plus political turmoiled equalled financial distress for almost half a million British businesses in the final three months of last year, according to a new survey which measures corporate health.

On currency markets, sterling has risen slightly versus the dollar and the euro (to $1.3087 and €1.1872), as the Brexit date of 31 January approaches.

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Global stock markets post best year since financial crisis

FTSE 100 records best performance since the referendum year, jumping 12%

Global stock markets have posted their best year since the aftermath of the financial crisis a decade ago, as investors shrugged off trade tensions and warnings of slowing growth in major economies.

The MSCI World Index, which tracks stocks across the developed world, jumped by almost 24% during 2019 – the strongest performance since 2009. A surge in US technology giants and a strong recovery in eurozone and Asian stocks drove the rally.

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Hong Kong recession to continue as protests hit economy – business live

Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news

The pick-up in UK mortgage approvals in November is a “significant surprise”, says Howard Archer of the EY Item Club.

He suspects that some home owners may have been keen to move before the general election, as a hung parliament could have created more economic uncertainty in 2020.

Those gains in Hong Kong and China today have lifted Asian stock markets to their highest levels in 18 months today.

Global stock markets have gained another $700bn this week in thin trading on santa rally. All equities now worth $87.1tn, just $200bn shy of a fresh life-time high and equal to 100% of global GDP so stocks have entered bubble territory. pic.twitter.com/JgXmKPDWCN

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How Japan has fared in 30 years since the stock market bubble burst

Nostalgia for the good times has been a coping mechanism for the world’s third largest economy

On 29 December 1989, Japan’s Nikkei stock market index hit a high of 38,916, a milestone that proved to be the last hurrah of the country’s asset-inflated bubble economy – a period of ostentatious consumption and overconfidence in the infallibility of Japan, Inc.

What followed was a spectacular fall from the heights of the mid- to late 1980s. The stock market plummeted, losing more than $2tn (£1.5tn) in value by December 1990. In the years that followed, the Japanese surveyed an alien landscape of “restructuring” – code for cost-cutting – deflation and stagnation. When the bubble party ended, its hosts appeared to have no idea how to clean up the mess left by absurdly high share and property prices.

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Saudi Aramco touches $2tn in value on second day of trading

World’s biggest listed company briefly reaches valuation sought by Saudi ruler

Saudi Aramco has touched a market value of $2tn a day after the Saudi state-backed oil company made its stock market debut.

The shares rose almost 10% at the open on the second day of trade on Riyadh’s Tadawul stock exchange, lifting the company’s market value briefly to $2tn, before giving up some of their gains.

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Markets in tailspin amid fears US-China trade deal is in peril

Asian markets plunge after Trump comments about trade deal delay made worse by possible Xinjiang sanctions

Global financial markets have gone into a tailspin amid mounting concern that the US and China are not going to conclude an interim trade agreement before a new set of American tariffs hit Chinese goods on 15 December.

Asian markets saw heavy selling on Wednesday after Donald Trump said a trade deal could wait until next year’s presidential election, scotching widely held expectations that he was ready to give the go ahead for an agreement.

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