Labour wins Tamworth with swing of 23.9 percentage points from Tories, then Mid Bedfordshire in largest ever turnaround of majority in UK byelection

Prof Sir John Curtice told the Today programme that there were two points in this parliament when Tory support rapidly switched to Labour: when the first Partygate revelations came out, and Liz Truss’s mini-budget. He said you could “reasonably argue” that those two events were more important in explaining why Labour is now doing so well than Keir Starmer’s changes to the Labour party. But if Starmer had not changed Labour, then the party might not have benefited to the extent it has, he said.

Curtice ended his interview with a big ‘what if?’

Let us say those Partygate happenings had never happened, or at least we had never heard of them. And as a result Boris Johnson was still in 10 Downing Street today. Would Labour be doing as well in the polls as they are at present?

These were always going to be challenging by-elections and the rule of thumb is that governments don’t win them. We have seen little to no enthusiasm for Sir Keir Starmer who voters can see stands for nothing and always puts short term political gain first.

The truth is these were not ordinary government losses. The swing in Tamworth, at just below 24%, is the second biggest swing from Conservative to Labour in postwar electoral history. And at just over 20% the swing in Mid Bedfordshire is also in the top 10.

No government has previously lost to the principal opposition party a seat as safe as Tamworth. You have to go back to 1977 and the Ashfield byelection to find an equivalent.

You can argue maybe there isn’t as much enthusiasm for Labour as there is discontent with the conservatives. But, nevertheless, when Labour have been challenged, they still managed to win that challenge.