Who can claim victory if Iran ceasefire holds? An early winner is China

Beijing’s powerbrokers are credited with winning Iran over, although one analyst says they were ‘pushing an open door’

As the world struggles to make sense of what, if anything, was achieved by the ceasefire deal announced by the US and Iran on Tuesday, one major power that stands to win regardless is China.

Beijing’s powerbrokers are being credited with pushing Iran towards agreeing to the ceasefire, bolstering its status as a regional mediator. In China’s tightly censored domestic media, articles basking in the glory of China being the grown-up in the room at a time of international crisis were allowed to circulate.

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Strait of Hormuz not open, Abu Dhabi’s oil chief says as crude prices rise

Uncertainty over US-Iran ceasefire pushes price of Brent crude towards $100 a barrel

The boss of Abu Dhabi’s state-owned oil company has said the strait of Hormuz is “not open” despite the US-Iran ceasefire agreed earlier this week, as uncertainty over the truce pushed the price of Brent crude towards $100 a barrel on Thursday.

Sultan Al Jaber, the chief executive officer of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc), said passage through the crucial waterway was subject to “permission, conditions and political leverage” by Iran. He said energy security and global economic stability depended on the strait being opened “fully, unconditionally and without restriction”.

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Lebanon must be included in US-Iran ceasefire deal, Yvette Cooper to say

Foreign secretary to address City leaders in London as Israel intensifies bombing and Vance says Lebanon is not part of deal

Lebanon must be included in the ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran, the British foreign secretary is to say, as a two-week pause in the conflict hangs in the balance.

Addressing an event at the Mansion House in London, Yvette Cooper is expected to say there “must be no return to conflict” after the ceasefire announced by the US president, Donald Trump, late on Tuesday.

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Thursday briefing: ​What difference will the ceasefire in the Middle East make, and will it hold?

In today’s newsletter: The truce offers a reprieve after weeks of turmoil, ​b​ut unresolved disputes and competing interpretations ​of what was agreed, threaten to pull the region back toward crisis​ at a moment’s notice

Good morning. On Tuesday, just an hour before the deadline imposed by Donald Trump for Iran to reopen navigation in the strait of Hormuz or face a wave of “civilisation-ending” strikes, a two-week pause in hostilities was announced. After weeks of US and Israeli attacks on Tehran, and Iranian retaliation across the region, the news prompted relief among world leaders.

But unanswered questions are piling up. Israel’s assault on Lebanon continues, with Trump describing that conflict as a separate skirmish not included in the deal, despite Iran seeming to think otherwise. Overnight the US president has used social media to warn that “the ‘shootin’ starts,’ bigger, and better, and stronger than anyone has ever seen before” unless Tehran complies with “the real agreement”.

Middle East | The fate of the two-week ceasefire in the Iran conflict looked in peril as both sides gave divergent versions of what had been agreed. Iran halted the passage of oil tankers because of an alleged Israeli ceasefire breach.

Middle East | Israel carried out its largest attack on Lebanon since its war with Hezbollah began, killing at least 254 people and wounding 837.

Middle East | The UK has a “job” to help reopen the strait of Hormuz, Keir Starmer said on arriving in the Middle East, as Iranian reports said the key shipping route was closed again just hours after the supposed US-Iran ceasefire.

Ukraine | The US has ignored compelling evidence that Russia has been helping Iran to target US bases in the Middle East because it misguidedly “trusts” Vladimir Putin, according to the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

Education | Many English universities are taking excessive financial risks with borrowing and expansion of student numbers, threatening not only their own survival but that of others in the sector, the thinktank Higher Education Policy Institute (Hepi) has warned.

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US ignoring evidence Russia is helping Iran because it trusts Putin, says Zelenskyy

Ukraine’s president tells podcast he has tried to draw White House’s attention to collaboration between Moscow and Tehran over strikes on US bases

The US has ignored compelling evidence that Russia has been helping Iran to target US bases in the Middle East because it “trusts” Vladimir Putin, according to the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

Speaking in an interview with Alastair Campbell on The Rest is Politics podcast, Zelenskyy said he had tried to draw the White House’s attention to the close collaboration between Moscow and Tehran.

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Starmer says UK wants to help with opening of Hormuz strait on Gulf visit

PM meets Mohammed bin Salman in Saudi Arabia before further visits to regional allies, who may see him as more reliable than Trump

The UK has a “job” to help reopen the strait of Hormuz, Keir Starmer has said, as Iranian reports said the key shipping route was closed again just hours after a supposed ceasefire.

The prime minister met British and local military personnel at an airbase in Taif, Saudi Arabia, at the start of what is expected to be a wider trip to Gulf allies, one billed as a mirror to his efforts to pull together a plan for how a ceasefire might operate in Ukraine.

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How Pakistan secured ‘biggest diplomatic win in years’ with Iran ceasefire

Analysts say Pakistani officials’ efforts led to breakthrough that has helped avert catastrophe, at least for now

Pakistan’s leaders had almost lost hope. After more than two weeks of frantic negotiations, phonecalls and diplomatic summits to try to end the US-Israeli war with Iran, it looked like the conflict might instead be escalating into Islamabad’s worst nightmare.

In a cabinet meeting held at about 5pm on Tuesday, Pakistan’s prime minister, Shehbaz Sharif, was morose. “We should brace ourselves for the impact of the war,” he told his cabinet ministers. “The situation has really become very bleak. The chance of peace has become dim.”

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‘A step back from the brink’: European leaders welcome US-Iran ceasefire

Announcement of deal met with relief and calls for strait of Hormuz to be reopened and permanent end to hostilities

European leaders have welcomed the US-Iran ceasefire deal while calling for the reopening of the strait of Hormuz and a permanent end to hostilities, including in Lebanon.

The US and Iran agreed a two-week conditional ceasefire on Tuesday, including a temporary reopening of the strait of Hormuz, after last-minute diplomacy from Pakistan. The Israeli military said on Wednesday it was continuing “fighting and ground operations” in its war against the Lebanese militia Hezbollah, despite a statement from Pakistan that Lebanon was included in the ceasefire.

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Explainer: What is in Iran’s 10-point ceasefire plan and will the US agree to it?

Two-week ceasefire comes after Trump spoke to Pakistan’s leaders, with China also believed to be exerting influence over Tehran

The US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire on Tuesday barely an hour before Donald Trump’s deadline to obliterate Iran was set to expire, with Tehran agreeing to temporarily reopen the strait of Hormuz.

Israel also agreed to the ceasefire, the White House said. As Trump announced he was suspending his plans to escalate attacks across Iran, the US president said he had received a 10-point proposal from Iran which was a “workable basis on which to negotiate”.

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US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire with Tehran saying it will reopen strait of Hormuz

Last-minute intervention led by Pakistan cancels Trump ultimatum for Iran to surrender or face annihilation

The US and Iran agreed to a two-week conditional ceasefire on Tuesday evening after a last-minute diplomatic intervention led by Pakistan, canceling an ultimatum from Donald Trump for Iran to surrender or face widespread destruction.

Trump’s announcement of the ceasefire agreement came less than two hours before the US president’s self-imposed 8pm Eastern time deadline to bomb Iran’s power plants and bridges in a move that legal scholars, as well as officials from numerous countries and the Pope, had warned could constitute war crimes.

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New Zealand asks US to send fuel tankers to Pacific to alleviate pressure caused by Iran war

After meeting with Marco Rubio, foreign minister Winston Peters says he made sure US understands ‘significant economic impacts on New Zealand and Pacific’

New Zealand has called on the US to send fuel tankers to the Pacific to help alleviate some of the significant economic and fuel pressure caused by the war in the Middle East.

Winston Peters, New Zealand’s foreign minister, met the US secretary of state, Marco Rubio, in Washington on Tuesday, where they discussed bilateral relations, the war in Iran and the Pacific.

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HMS Dragon docks in eastern Mediterranean after problems with water systems

Royal Navy type 45 destroyer deployed to reinforce security around RAF base in Cyprus to undergo short maintenance stop, says MoD

HMS Dragon has docked in the eastern Mediterranean after suffering technical problems with its water systems.

The UK’s prime minister, Keir Starmer, announced on 3 March that the type 45 destroyer would be deployed to reinforce security around RAF Akrotiri in Cyprus, two days after the base was struck by a Shahed 136 drone.

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Farage says Trump’s Iranian ‘civilisation will die’ threats went ‘way too far’– UK politics live

The Reform UK leader says he is ‘shocked’ by the remarks which were ‘over the top in every single way’

The Green party is backing resident doctors who are on strike. This morning the party issued a statement on the dispute from its co-deputy leader, Mothin Ali, saying:

Rather than shifting goalposts or arm twisting resident doctors with threats over training places, Wes Streeting needs to get serious about resolving resident doctors long term concerns over pay, training and working conditions. The government’s 10-year plan for the NHS will go nowhere if the workforce feels unappreciated, devalued and demotivated.

I think I’m going to stay out of the selection of music by different bands. We live in a free country; people are going to say things. Let’s just let people listen to the music they want to.

People should choose their music and they don’t really they need advice from John Swinney unless they want to listen to The Jam or Amy McDonald.

Well, the government should go on and take their decisions within their powers, but I’m not going to give a running commentary on music taste.

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Oil slick from bombed Iranian ship threatens protected wetland

Shahid Bagheri leaking fuel towards Hara mangrove forest, home to migrating birds and endangered turtles

An oil slick from a stricken Iranian ship threatens to contaminate one of the Middle East’s most important wetlands, satellite image analysis suggests, making it one of a number of spills posing a risk to the livelihoods of coastal communities in the Gulf.

The Shahid Bagheri, a drone carrier, began leaking heavy fuel oil in Iranian territorial waters near the strait of Hormuz after it was hit by a US warplane in the first few days of the US-Israel attack on Iran.

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Donald Trump says ‘a whole civilisation will die’ if Iran ignores demands

Attacks on Iran increase and Israel tells Iranians to avoid train travel as deadline to reopen strait of Hormuz looms

Donald Trump warned that “a whole civilization will die tonight” if Tehran does not accept his demands, amid a wave of bombing as Israel told Iranians their lives would be at risk if they used the country’s railways.

A rail bridge in the central Iranian city of Kashan was one of the first reported bombed on Tuesday by Iranian state media, with two people reportedly killed as Israel’s military said it had launched “a wide-scale wave of strikes targeting dozens of infrastructure sites”.

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Trump threats cause dilemma for US officers: disobey orders or commit war crimes

Legal experts say attacking Iran’s infrastructure would constitute a war crime – but would military officers be held responsible?

Donald Trump’s threats to carry out mass bombing of civilian infrastructure in Iran present US military officers with a dilemma: disobey orders or help commit war crimes.

It is an urgent matter for the US chain of command. In an expletive-laden threat, Trump set a Tuesday 8pm Washington time deadline for the Iranian government to open the strait of Hormuz or face “Power Plant Day, and Bridge Day, all wrapped up in one”.

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Trump uses Neville Chamberlain jibe to mock Starmer over stance on Iran

As UK PM resists pressure to back airstrikes, US president invokes British leader known for his policy of appeasement

Donald Trump has appeared to compare Keir Starmer to Neville Chamberlain in his latest disparaging remarks about the prime minister, who has refused to back the US-Israeli attacks on Iran.

The comments, during an Easter Monday event at the White House, underline Trump’s continued annoyance at Starmer’s scepticism about the aims and legality of the conflict, a view that has not been shifted by the US president’s jibes.

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Thailand PM urges working from home amid fears over energy crisis

Anutin Charnvirakul encourages measures such as home working and carpooling as country is reliant on oil imports

Thailand’s prime minister, Anutin Charnvirakul, has called on the public to conserve energy, urging work-from-home measures and carpooling, as he warned of the impact of the conflict in the Middle East.

In a statement posted on social media, Anutin said Thailand was exposed to the crisis because of its reliance on imported oil and gas, and the country could not be complacent.

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Small UK firms’ energy bills set to more than double due to Iran war

Companies using heating oil have already begun rationing their fuel use, says Federation of Small Businesses

Thousands of independent businesses across the UK are braced for their energy bills to more than double owing to the sharp rise in heating oil costs as the war in Iran pushed Europe’s fuel market prices to fresh record highs.

About 7% of all small and medium-sized companies warm their properties and provide hot water using heating oil, which in some cases has more than doubled in recent weeks.

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Track current petrol and diesel prices, service station outages and shipments – Australia’s fuel crisis in charts

How much fuel does Australia have left today, and when could we run out? Check how much petrol and diesel prices have risen near you in Sydney, Melbourne and across the country since the US and Israel’s war on Iran began in late February

Hundreds of service stations across Australia have run empty, fuel prices are elevated and oil shipments have been cancelled.

Australia is battling a fuel crisis as Iran’s closure of the strait of Hormuz continues to bite. The federal government has released fuel reserves, cut fuel excise taxes and rolled out a national fuel security plan.

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