Category Archives: Economics

Global green recovery plans fail to match 2008 stimulus, report shows

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Exclusive: just 12% of spending on economic rescue packages is going towards low-carbon projects, research finds

Efforts by governments around the world to forge a green recovery from the coronavirus pandemic are so far failing even to reach the levels of green spending seen in the stimulus that followed the 2008 financial crisis, new analysis has shown.

Only about 12% of the spending on economic rescue packages around the world is going towards low-carbon projects, such as renewable energy and clean technology, according to a report by Vivid Economics, published on Friday.

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Brexit cost will be four times greater for UK than EU, Brussels forecasts

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Departure to cost EU 0.5% of GDP but UK 2.25% by end 2022, according to first official estimate since deal was agreed

The economic blow dealt by Brexit will be four times greater in the UK than the EU, according to the latest forecasts by Brussels.

A month into the new relationship, the European commission said the UK’s exit on the terms agreed by Boris Johnson’s government would generate a loss in gross domestic product (GDP) by the end of 2022 of about 2.25% in the UK compared with continued membership. In contrast, the hit for the EU is estimated to be about 0.5% over the same period.

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‘I thought buying things would make me feel better. It didn’t’: The rise of emotional spending

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Many of us are living for the buzz of the doorbell – spending billions we can’t afford on stuff we don’t need. Here is how to recognise the problem and regain control

In the past fortnight, I have bought the following items online: a hideous cat tree that takes up most of my living room, a lavender pillow spray, two scarves, a pair of gloves, two candles, a sheet mask, a pair of fleece-lined jogging bottoms (so comfy!), a card-holder and an under-eye brightening cream. None of these purchases were essential. Many I haven’t even taken out of the packaging, leaving them in a pile by the front door.

Ten months into the pandemic, I know the rhythms of the courier networks better than I know my menstrual cycle. Royal Mail in the morning; DPD and Hermes in the afternoon. Amazon comes any time, including late at night. DPD couriers insist on taking a photo of you with the package, mortifyingly. I wonder where these photos go: me in a food-stained tracksuit, dirty-haired, holding an armful of packages I can’t remember ordering with an abashed smile. I pray they never see the light of day.

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UK importers brace for ‘disaster’ as new Brexit customs checks loom

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Exporters badly hit already but KPMG says ‘biggest headaches’ have yet to come’ for importers

British firms are warning of further Brexit red tape as the government prepares to introduce a long list of new controls on imports from the European Union in April and July.

In the coming months further checks are due to be phased in at the UK border, controlling everything from the import of sausages and live mussels to horses and trees, as well as the locations these checks can take place.

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Is big tech now just too big to stomach?

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The Covid crisis has turbo-charged profits and share prices. But are the big six now too powerful for regulators to ignore?

The coronavirus pandemic has wrought economic disruption on a global scale, but one sector has marched on throughout the chaos: big tech.

Further evidence of the industry’s relentless progress has come in recent weeks with the news that Apple and Amazon both raked in sales of $100bn (£72bn) over the past three months – 25% more than Tesco brings in over a full year.

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Enter the Draghi: can ‘Super Mario’ save Italy as he did the euro?

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Called on to lead Italy’s government in crisis, the former central banker will need all the skills he honed saving the European currency

“Whatever it takes.” Three simple words that tamed the financial markets, saved the euro from possible collapse and turned Mario Draghi from an Italian technocrat into the central banker of his generation.

And an obvious choice to head a new coalition government in Rome at a time when the country is facing the triple whammy of Covid-19, economic collapse and political chaos.

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Silver price hits eight-year high – business live

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Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news

Neil Wilson of Markets.com suggests that large investors may also be driving the silver price rally, rather than it simply being caused by retail traders.

He also warns that such speculation is risky, and usually ends badly for some of those who get caught up:

The fact that such a large and liquid market as silver can be targeted by retail investors says much about the shift we are witnessing, though despite appearances this morning it’s going to a lot harder to squeeze silver shorts as the market is so much deeper and more liquid.

We should also note that some bigger smart money may have be front-running this trade to piggyback the rally and further fuelling the move up. (George Soros: “When I see a bubble forming, I rush in to buy, adding fuel to the fire.”)

Allianz’s Mohamed El-Erian has tweeted that GameStop and silver are not the same kind of short squeeze trade (as some WallStreetBets posts have also been pointing out).

El-Erian also cautions that the silver squeeze could undermine the squeeze on hedge funds who shorted GameStop’s shares, as the GME trade depends on keeping retail investors on board (rather than selling to the hedge funds).

.#GameStop and #silver are not the same for those pursuing the short squeeze trade
The silver market is much larger;
Existing shorts are smaller;
Some of the #HedgeFunds that are short #GME are said to be long silver
Bottom line: A dissimilar trade that eats away at #GME gains https://t.co/TMfpkr7QDE

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UK to apply to join free trade pact with nations on other side of world

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Liz Truss to seek to join 11-nation trans-Pacific partnership, whose nearest member is 3,000 miles away

The British government is to formally apply to join a mammoth free-trade pact that includes Australia, Canada, Japan and New Zealand now that it has left the EU.

Liz Truss, the international trade secretary, will ask to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) when she speaks to ministers in Japan and New Zealand on Monday.

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Keep Covid rescue programmes or risk triggering stock market crash, warns IMF

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International Monetary Fund says there are concerns about share price bubble

Governments and central banks must maintain their pandemic rescue programmes or risk triggering a stock market crash, the International Monetary Fund has said.

Warning that there were legitimate concerns about a share price bubble, the Washington-based organisation said that without continued low interest rates and government subsidies it was possible a “correction” in stock markets would occur.

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‘A Brexit nightmare’: the British businesses being pushed to breaking point

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Less than a month after leaving the EU, trade is flowing so badly that small firms are moving operations abroad to survive

Christophe Fricke lectures in German at the University of Bristol and adores living in England. He was born in Germany but his anglophilia became so strong after moving here that he wrote a book called 111 Gründe, England zu lieben (“111 Reasons to Love England”) in 2018. He selected the gardens of Cornwall, the National Portrait Gallery, the way the English use collective nouns for groups of animals (herds, packs, and so on) and their fascination with murder cases in his varied list of reasons for loving this country.

But since 1 January, Fricke has been reminded that there are also worrying things about life in England – and being outside the EU is now chief among them.

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New Covid infections pose challenge to China’s growth and Xi’s leadership

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The leader has declared victory over the virus, but a fresh outbreak is complicating the narrative

When Britain was in its second lockdown last November and the economy was contracting, China’s quarterly growth rate was hitting 6.5%. Figures last week showed that for the full year, the world’s second-largest economy could boast a growth rate of 2.3% while all its rivals in Europe and the Americas were going backwards.

The trend could be traced back to Beijing’s efforts to tackle the virus – albeit after a period of denial – and keep infection rates among the lowest in the world.

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‘It’s a big deal’: why former protester turned Davos mayor wants WEF back

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Philipp Wilhelm knows local people rely on forum’s revenue – but still thinks world must change

In his youth, Philipp Wilhelm was at the forefront of protests against the World Economic Forum’s annual “extreme capitalism” gathering of the business and political elite in Davos, the Swiss mountain resort where he grew up.

Now, however, Wilhelm is the mayor of the town and his central mission is to ensure the return of the WEF jamboree, which had been scheduled to start next week but was cancelled this year due to the pandemic.

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As Covid cases spike, Dubai works to keep its economy open

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For an emirate dependent on trade, transport and tourism, vaccination, not lockdown, is key to keeping its economy going

As if the Boohoo online fashion company had not generated enough controversy in recent months, its bosses once again found themselves in the headlines last week for hosting a four-day meeting with suppliers in the luxurious surroundings of a Dubai hotel.

The company’s top executives had taken a private jet to the emirate for the get-together with the businessmen and women who supply their fabrics and manufacture their fashions, despite Foreign Office guidance that advises against all but essential travel.

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China reports strongest growth in two years after Covid-19 recovery

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Country was expanding at a faster rate than before the coronavirus pandemic at the end of 2020

China’s economy has posted its strongest growth in two years after completing a rapid recovery from the slump caused by the Covid-19 pandemic at the start of 2020.

Although the 2.3% annual increase in activity for the world’s second biggest economy was its slowest since 1976, by the final three months of last year China was expanding at a faster rate than before the crisis.

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We’re on the verge of breakdown: a data scientist’s take on Trump and Biden

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Peter Turchin, an entomologist-turned-historian, offers insight into the battle between elites

Peter Turchin is not the first entomologist to cross over to human behaviour: during a lecture in 1975, famed biologist E O Wilson had a pitcher of water tipped on him for extrapolating the study of ant social structures to our own.

It’s a reaction that Turchin, an expert-on-pine-beetles-turned-data-scientist and modeller, has yet to experience. But his studies at the University of Connecticut into how human societies evolve have lately gained wider currency; in particular, an analysis that interprets worsening social unrest in the 2020s as an intra-elite battle for wealth and status.

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EU halts imports of seafood from smaller Scottish companies

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Export firms point to post-Brexit delays around health certificates, IT systems and missing customs papers

Deliveries of Scottish seafood to the EU from smaller companies have been halted until Monday, 18 January, after post-Brexit problems with health checks, IT systems and customs documents caused a huge backlog.

Scottish fishing has been plunged into crisis, as lorry-loads of live seafood and some fish destined for shops and restaurants in France, Spain and other countries have been rejected because they are taking too long to arrive.

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Is ‘hysterical’ market speculation pushing us towards another crash?

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Despite Covid, global stocks started 2021 on a high. But some analysts warn of an ‘epic’ bubble, amid fears that the flow of stimulus has created a monster

Insurrections are not usually seen by investors as buy signals. Yet even as rioters stormed the seat of US legislative government last week, stock market indices hit new highs in New York, adding another chapter to 12 months of apparent defiance of economic gravity.

Wall Street, measured by the benchmark S&P 500, was not alone in starting 2021 with a bang. London’s FTSE 100 jumped by more than 6% in the first week of the year as investors took in a heady cocktail of a President Joe Biden ready and able to spend money, cheap borrowing costs, and the hopes that vaccines will end the coronavirus lockdowns. Yet amid the exuberance a serious concern looms: are we on the cusp of another colossal crash?

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The world in 2021 – how global politics will change this year

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Donald Trump’s departure will alter the face of geopolitics. The climate crisis and Covid response will affect all nations – while others face very particular challenges. Observer correspondents examine the 12 months ahead

A potent mix of hope and fear accompanies the start of 2021 in most of the world. Scientists have created several vaccines for a disease that didn’t even have a name this time last year. But many countries, including the UK and the US, are still stumbling through the deadliest period of the pandemic.

The shadow of Covid will not begin to lift, even in richer countries, for months. Britain was the first to approve a vaccine and has secured extensive supplies, yet Boris Johnson’s suggestion that life might be returning to normal by Easter is widely seen as optimistic. Other countries, particularly in the south, face a long wait to get vaccines, and help paying for them. The rebuilding of economies shattered by Covid everywhere will be slow; even countries that managed to contain it have taken a hit, from Vietnam to New Zealand.

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Extend Covid measures or households face ‘cliff edges’, says Labour

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Universal credit boost, ban on evictions and mortgage holiday must continue, party says

Many low- and middle-income households will face financial hardship unless ministers maintain support for those who have lost their jobs or experienced steep cuts in income during the second wave of Covid-19, Labour has said.

The shadow chancellor, Anneliese Dodds, said in a new year message to Rishi Sunak that the chancellor must extend a range of Covid-19 rescue measures due to run out over the next three months “to protect struggling households from financial ruin”.

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EU states unanimously back Brexit trade and security deal

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Backing of EU27 paves way for new arrangements between UK and EU to come into force on 1 January

The post-Brexit trade and security deal has been unanimously backed by EU member states, paving the way for the new arrangements to come into force on 1 January.

At a meeting of ambassadors in Brussels, the 27 member states gave their support for the 1,246-page treaty to be “provisionally applied” at the end of the year. The decision will be formally completed by written procedure at 3pm central European time (1400 GMT) on Tuesday.

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